Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Hi Ibizamatrix1998

The 5% value of what's in the ground is a Wendy Durham cheap and cheerful way of arriving at a NPV figure so in this instance you'd be looking at $1.25B but that's not un-risked. There's a long way to go before Amur gets to that point so a current value based on NPV is closer to a finger in the air exercise especially with everything going on right now.

Look at the published NPV's for just about any junior explorer and you'll be hard pushed to find one that's even remotely close to their current MC. That begs the question why bother with NPV?

TDT

.......start to the day/week but why have they hiked the ask up so high and so soon. A spread of 26.18% dissuades people from buying. They usually do that to deter buyers when trying to fill a large order(s).

Early days.

TDT

Garf

The whole process is far more involved and time-consuming than many realise, I agree.

Shouldn't you be taking your figures from the Interims in the 30/09/2021 RNS? In the section titled "TEO Highlights" they state the following:-

"Potential mine life estimated to be 25 years, sustaining an 11.2 million tonne per year throughput."

"On 30 June 2021, the Company announced that RPM Global had completed an update to the JORC resource estimates including all drilling and trenching. Based on a 0.3% nickel equivalent cut-off grade ("COG"), the global JORC ore tonnage has increased by 19.2 million tonnes ("Mt") (12.4%) to 174.3 Mt, by 156,000 nickel tonnes (13.5%) to 1.31 Mt of nickel (averaging 0.75% nickel) and by 53,000 copper tonnes (16.6%) to 372,000 copper tonnes (averaging 0.21% copper). A 0.3% nickel cut-off grade was used to calculate the JORC Resource compared to previously reported resources at a 0.4% Nickel cut off-grade."

1.31m tonnes of nickel @ 73.5% = 963,000 tonnes x $23,950/tonne = $23B
0.372m tonnes of copper @ 52.3% = 195,000 tonnes x $9875 = $1.925B

I make it close to $25B.

I'm pretty sure they will have left a juicy morsel in the bottom of the pot for the buyer to discover as well.

TDT

Hi Lucando

The accumulating party hasn't declared but a new nominee account has appeared which suggests somebody is accumulating. The account first appeared in the December shareholder update when it was announced that 51,605,410 shares or 3.74% of the shares in issue had been acquired. It now stands, one month after first appearing, at 58,126,537 shares. The one thing that's not clear is whether this nominee account is one party or several. If it were one party a TR1 should have been issued which seems to imply that its more than one entity accumulating. It could be several separate accounts ultimately looking to act in concert.

The principal advantage for one party accumulating in this nominee account using several different names is by doing so up to the 3% threshold they can keep their identity private. Of course there's the distinct possibility that this is just another nominee and there's nothing untoward going on at all. I don't think that's the case though given share moves from all accounts over the last several months.

We've had plenty of false dawns here so don't be surprised if this is another.

TDT

.......about the unusual activity on Friday it seems to me that we have seen two separate and distinct things happening. Accumulation, it seems, has been going on for several months resulting in 4.2% of the company's shares ending up in a new Euroclear nominee account. That process has been slow and methodical to avoid spiking the share price. Friday was anything but slow and methodical. Friday was indicative of news leaking. The obvious piece of news to leak is the publication of the TEO.

An RNS sometime this coming week seems likely.

TDT

Upon reflection it wouldn't surprise me either if we didn't hear a thing.

Hazbeen

Putting the metals costs into perspective.

Take a Model 3 which costs, in the USA, about $45,000. This is just the basic Model 3 not long range, dual motor, 4 wheel drive or anything like that. The battery pack, not the batteries themselves, are about one third of the O/A cost so about $15,000.

There is 50kg of nickel, tops, in the car. That's 110lbs. of nickel which, when it was $5.50/lb amounted to $605. Now double that and you have the nickel in the battery costing $1,210. The increased cost of the nickel, from $5.50/lb to $11.00/lb adds $605 to the O/A cost of the battery pack and the O/A cost of the car. That's approximately 4.35% onto the cost of the battery pack or 1.35% onto the O/A cost of the car. There are other metals to take into consideration but in essence the increased cost of these metals in total will not be a show stopper.

As production increases economies of scale kick in on the production side. Materials costs might experience some upward pressure but production volume counters that effect. The learning curve model posits that for each doubling of the total quantity of items produced, costs decrease by a fixed proportion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects

The production of batteries is still very much in its infancy so plenty of efficiencies and therefore cost reductions to come from that quarter.

TDT

Thanks Hazbeen. I’ll try and get into it later today.

TDT

CBS

It looks like whoever is accumulating has decided to step on the gas peddle. Circa 2.7m bought in a 4 minute spurt starting at 15.39 hrs and still the share price remains stubbornly anchored below 2p. What's it going to take?

Our mystery Euroclear buyer looks like they're heading for 6% come the next shareholder update. That's assuming they continue accumulating shares in that account and don't try hiding what they're doing.

TDT

"pearl clutching"

Don't know about that. I thought we were all rainbow chasing!

TDT

Interesting that no nickel either left or was deposited in the LME today. That's a first.

TDT

If only we were in Australia.

TDT

......at the moment.

If only we were a producer!

TDT

On the contrary Manofnomeans you haven't touched anything. This is a chat board where people are free to post their opinions. I heard the same interview as you but interpretted it differently. That's not an issue merely a different opinion.

Now we have SpaceHoppa jumping in on the discussion. This has absolutely nothing to do with a conspiracy. If you think companies are not selective in the news they release and when they release it then you have to be either painfully niave or a bit simple. It took them over a year to fess up to failures on site. Do you honestly think they didn't know what was going on? Directors and senior management spewing millions of shares into the market while Labrenz was painting a picture that all was well? Fierro and Bélanger were directors while this was all going on. Do you honestly think they didn't let that run?

As for Bélanger's experience go figure what happened at Mirabela Nickel Ltd on her watch. According to the CV "she is credited with the successful turnaround of the Santa Rita mine". I'll save you the bother.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/mirabela-enters-liquidation-as-santa-rita-fails-to-attract-bid-2016-06-15

If it makes you feel good about your invesment to suck up whatever they tell you without question then that's fine, whatever makes you happy. I want the same thing as you. Unlike you, however, I don't think there's a rosy glow around the new incumbents because they're partly responsible for last years poor perfmance.

TDT

.....always worth listening to.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/nickel-gripped-by-ferocious-squeeze-stocks-disappear-andy-home-2022-01-19/

Nickel experiencing another of its periodic run ups (yes Blackrhino1 we know) currently $10.62/lb. It probably won't stick but it does seem to still have momentum behind it. Settling around the £10.50/lb to $11.00/lb is where we want to be. Fickle nickel has a reputation for boom and bust so a sensible level would be the place to stop.

At $10.50/lb Amur has to be on somebody's/ anybody's radar surely?

TDT

CBS

https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/LME-Nickel#Trading+day+summary

LME has a one day lag as well.

https://rk-commodity.blogspot.com/p/lme-inventory-data-report.html

For the figure for today.

TDT

"Not sure what your issue is....."

It seem the issue is you don't like somebody having a different opinion to your own. That's the only issue here.

TDT

CBS

After such a large draw down from the LME yesterday the figure today is a paltry 42 tonnes. That's disappointing.

TDT

Hi Garf

I don't disagree with any of that. Tom Bowens was brought on board for a reason. Somebody with contacts, a reputation and experience in selling in Russia to Russians would be invaluable I'd have thought.

$1B to bring 40,000 tonnes of nickel to the market is about par for the course. Horizonte raised $650m for Araguaia 1&2 and these two project , combined, will produce 28,000 tonnes. Amur's headline figure might look daunting but its what you get for that investment that matters.

TDT

Thanks for posting.

The Crux interviews are usually quite good because you have Matthew Gordon asking some tough questions. One thing he didn't pick up on though was the excuse for not picking up on the problems earlier. Once again Covid was trotted out as the reason. They didn't visit the mine and didn't pick up on the problems because Covid prevent travel. Surely the production figures coming out of the mine should have told them there was a problem.

Well I guess we are where we are so its just a case of hunkering down and waiting to see what transpires. It is only 10 weeks until the end of the 1st. Q 2022. Another 2 weeks after that and we should get some figures. Above 12,000 oz. is the minimum we need to see.

TDT

MD
Quite possibly. Its difficult to know what Putin's game is. When you look at Russia, its land mass (largest country in the world by a long margin), its population (144m) yet a GDP less than that of New York City you can't help wonder why its such an abject failure. Constantly playing the ultra nationalist card is what seems to keep him in power and I guess he'll keep on playing it for as long as it works. As for sanctions! I don't think he gives a fig that. The majority of his people live in poverty. They are, after all, used to it.

cannyladdy
Both Highland and Trans-Siberian were in production when they were sold. The hard miles had been done. Amur still has it all to do. Having said that Tom Bowen's Malmyzh copper/gold project wasn't in production when sold so I guess projects sell at every stage in the production cycle. Interesting that all three project were acquired by Russian companies.

Blackrhino1
Are you this much fun at parties!

TDT