Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Before you go bashing RY and Amur perhaps it would serve you better to spend a bit of time looking at various other nickel projects on AIM, in particular Horizonte. Horizonte has bigger deposits than Amur, is in a much better and safer jurisdiction, has an enviable shareholder register with some big names, a completed DFS, is shovel ready, but a MC that is largely made up of cash in the bank.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking Horizonte, on the contrary its a good company that many invested here are also invested in. The differences in their respective valuations, however, isn't that great when everything is factored in. Furthermore Horizonte's past hasn't been an example of seamless progression with all targets hit and promises kept. That's the nature of the beast. Amur's share price isn't where we want it to be or think it should be but that's the same with Horizonte. The market simply hasn't worken up to the potential of nickel just yet. Hopefully it will.

TDT

SpaceHoppa

Whether they really do have an issue on site with covid or whether its a convenient excuse to explain away poor production figures at the start of the new year we will never know. The only thing I think we can say with a fair degree of certainty is covid or ongoing production problems, January 2022 production figures are unlikely to blow the roof off. Now that could just be a
conspiracy theorists view but this has an awful lot of get outs for the company.

"During this time, production is expected to continue albeit at a slightly reduced rate. While the ultimate impact on monthly or quarterly production, if any, is not yet known, the Company expects to make up any production shortfall shortly after returning to full production. The Company continues to monitor the situation very closely and will provide updates as necessary."

You are happy to take everything at face value and seem content to allow confirmation bias to form your view. In my exepreince AIM is more obfuscation than fact. The recent RNS is a good example of that.

TDT

SpaceHoppa

"...conspiracy theorists...."

Really. Two years after Covid rampages across the world and they are reporting a bit now!

The evidence will be in the January 2022 production figures. But hold on a minute, they've already paved the way on that.

It seems to me to be far more plausible that the production problems DL presided over are proving to be more difficult to resolve than the new whizz kids expected.

TDT

Nickel closing in on $10/lb. Stocks of nickel in the LME below 100,000 tonnes for the first time in two years.

And the commodities super cycle is only just starting.

TDT

Nickel closing in on $10/lb. with stocks in the LME below 100,000 per tonne for the first time since 11th. December 2019.

TDT

Bugerov

There was no shortage of comms from DL when he was at the helm. Problem was he told us everything was all sweetness and light while, at the same time, him and his buddies were selling.

The current comms can't really be anything other than what they are. The unvarnished truth would flatten the share price so they dress it up. I'm OK with that and I'm OK with them trying to mitigate the damage as best they can. What I'm just a little bit troubled by is their inability to come up with something more believable than covid. That just shows an extraordinary lack of imagination.

TDT

Manofnomeans

The face value approach, oh dear. Therein lies many a lost fortune, especially on AIM.

Using covid as the reason over 2 years after the pandemic started is lame in the extreme. Its all about production figures for January and it seems to me they're getting in there early with their excuse. Could be wrong but we shall see soon enough.

TDT

That sounds like a fluff RNS to me. One designed to hide a production problem and to explain away poor figures for January 2022. More to do with maintaining Troy Fierro's rep as the man IMO.

TDT

https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/HZM/news/8169266773892718

TDT

Hi sasa43

I thought I'd check the current iteration of the Mem&Arts to refresh my memory on what it says about holding disclosure and it specifically states 3% but there's nothing that refers to 5%. The exact wording:-

DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS
20A. A person must notify the Company of the percentage of voting rights held if the percentage of voting rights which he holds directly or indirectly as shareholder or through his direct or indirect holding of Qualifying Financial Instruments (or a combination of such holdings):
(a) reaches, exceeds or falls below 3 per cent and each 1 per cent threshold thereafter up to 100 per cent (each a “Threshold”); or
(b) reaches, exceeds or falls below a Threshold as a result of events changing the breakdown of voting rights and on the basis of information disclosed by the Company in accordance with Article 20C,
such notification to be made to the Company without delay and in any event before the end of the second Business Day on which the obligation arises.
__________________
That suggests to me that any holder above 3%, no matter where they're domiciled has to declare their holding. It also suggests that the crossing of each successive 1% boundary after 3% has been reached needs to be reported irrespective.

So maybe our Euroclear Nominee is an offshore entity after all.

TDT

He talks a good game. He's also happy to blow his own trumpet but the proof will be in the results so let's wait and see what they manage to produce in the first couple of month of this year. 4,500 oz .per month moving up to 6,000 oz. per month by the year end is what I'd hope to see. Anything more than that would be a bonus IMO.

TDT

HI sasa43

Correct me if I'm wrong but an offshore entity only need declare once they've gone above 5%. Euroclear Nominees first popped up in the 03/12/2021 update with 3.74%. If this is somebody offshore accumulating on the QT I'd expect them to be aware of that especially when you consider that, as an offshore entity, they only need to declare crossing at 5%, 10%, 15% etc.

There seems to be something going on but just exactly what that might be is not clear. As with all things of this ilk whatever it is will probably turn out to be, in the grand scheme of things, an awful lot simpler and less significant than I/we think.

TDT

Hammer11

I doubt that. I suspect today is more to do with PIs buying into the idea which is a bit troubling since there's no guarantee that what I think is happening actually is happening.

There's also the possibility that somebody in the know is taking a position prior to the TEO being approved. The accumulation seemed to start around July of last year so the contents of the TEO would have been pretty firm by then. The TEO was with the Russian Government Commission for Natural Resources Reserves ("GKZ") in August so the contents would have gone through a few hands and passed across a desk or two prior.

All idle speculation on a cold, wet and windy January afternoon in Cornwall.

TDT

Astar

You and me both.

TDT

Oooops. Should have been.

PS Do keep in mind that my view that the Euroclear Nominee account is one entity is my opinion. There is no guarantee that I'm right.

TDT

Astar

4.21% is a long way off being able to do anything.

Section 139 part (b) of the Mem & Arts states:-

(b) the acquisition is made in circumstances in which the City Code, if it applied to the Company, would require an offer to be made as a consequence and such offer is made in accordance with Rule 9 of the City Code (Rule 9), as if it so applied."

There's lots of stuff out there on Rule 9 but this one will get you started.

https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/7-107-6806?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true

If we are seeing a slow methodical transfer of shares from PIs to a single entity then, if it continues, its just a matter of time before the share price will start to rise. The more they acquire the higher it will have to go.

If they make an offer at some point in the future it willhave to be at the highest price paid by either them or any concert party. Where do you think the share price will be if they continue buying all the way up to near the 30% level? That's close to 450m shares they'd have to acquire. The share price will have passed 20p long before they get to 30%.

At a guess I'd say at least 80% of Amur's shares are currently held by PIs. It would take a real effort to prize a significant amount out of the hands of most for less than 10p. The more they try to acquire the greater the upward pressure on the share price so don't worry about the company being easily acquired. At the moment the only thing that appears to be happening is the low fruit is being picked. The low fruit will all disappear before long.

TDT

PS Do keep in ming that my view that the Euroclear Nominee account is one entity is my opinion. There is no guarantee that I'm right.

Geng

Its probably more accurate to say.

"......but its beginning to look increasingly like somebody is acquiring the company's shares on the QT."

At the moment its only 4.21% of the shares in issue so a long way off taking control.

If anything its likely to be somebody who simply fancies a slice of one of the largest remaining nickel sulphide deposits that there is out there.

Some might find the below of interest.

From 03/07/2021 to 04/01/2022 I've listed out the change in holdings in both the nominee accounts and in the Remaining Shareholders account. As you can see every single one has gone down over that period except Lawshare Nominees which has increased by a modest 851,036 shares.

Barclayshare Nominees -5,452,84
Interactive Investor -4,827,831
HSDL Nominees Limited -4,284,772
Lawshare Nominees +851,036
HSBC Global Custody Nominees -4,562,104
Hargreaves Lansdown Nominees -15,391,688
Remaining Shareholders -15,330,656

Total - 58,977,673

I can't think of any plausible reason why, over that period, every account, bar one, should go down and only one increase significantly if its not one entity accumulating.

Any/all other plausible explanationa/theories welcome.

TDT

PS Of course the above could all be complete hokum.

PPS Happy New Year.

For anybody interested it seems to me that accumulation started back in July of last year and has been consistently going on for the last 6 months. Whoever is accumulating has managed to acquire 58,126,537 shares in the company, or 4.21%, and in that time has managed to successfully avoid spiking the share price.

It might be a bit premature to say this but its beginning to look increasingly like the company is being acquired on the QT.

TDT

Sorry, that should have been:-

"It looks like they've all come from the "Remaining Shareholders total" all 6.5m."

TDT

AT

The interesting thing with the increase in the Euroclear account total is the source of the shares. It looks like they've all come from the "Remaining Shareholders total" all 7.5m. That's unusual and suggests to me either a consolidation of shares held in differenct names/accounts or a holder deciding to sell a block of shares to one entity. Either way it seems to me like somebody is continuing to build a stake.

All the other nominee accounts remain largely unchanged or within a modest churn range.

TDT