Some rough figures15 Aug 2020 14:08
Extremely conservative 2020 scenario (based on H2 simply replicating H1):
revenue - £130m
ebitda profit - £80m
Conservative base scenario (based on (i) H2 merely following company guidance that H1 revenue was 90% generated in Q2 and "the company anticipates revenue for the second half of the year to be greater than the first half of the year and margins to be at least at a similar level" - no monthly growth assumed):
revenue: £190m
ebitda profit: £115m
More bullish scenario (that sales for H2 will reflect month on month growth at say 20%):
revenue: £240m
ebitda profit: £145m
Of course, there is material upside to the bullish scenario.
Stepping back, with the market cap at £215m, in the conservative scenario, the company is trading at 1.65 times annual revenue and 2.7 times annual profit.
In the base scenario, the company is trading at 1.1 times annual revenue and 1.9 times annual profit.
In the more bullish scenario, the company is trading at 90% of annual revenue and 1.5 times annual profit.
This is totally crazy and I have never seen anything like this for a £200m market cap company, other than those that are in serious financial trouble. The market is treating this company like a piece of trash, a one-off Saturday night 5/10 shag. I am ****ed off. What the hell am I missing? Can any more experienced financially minded posters please help with an explanation as to why the company is so poorly rated? I've looked at the company announcements and, sure, a lot of the profit will be reinvested for the future and won't be made available to shareholders but the company is debt free and surely the market can see that there will at least be some demand for 2021.