A view10 Jul 2019 17:35
Way I see it our suitor left because of geo, politics, Bpc greed or financial risks. I think geo was ok, just, politics have been ticked off unless there is some clause hidden that we are unaware of so to me it’s the financial risk and Bpc. Bpc probably asking for too much and unable to commit skin to a drill as strapped for cash. That means a double farm out. A third party may not have been interest in taking up Bpc slack. I don’t see Macquarie coming in with a white knight else it would have happened by now. They need a round table and that’s complex. Also Bpc cash situation means it’s unlikely they can fund part of the drill so the knights of the round table view it as all the risk is theirs and Bpc want a free carry and a big slice. If (big if) Macquarie have found a few knights that could be the sticking point. They want Bpc to chip in so if that is the case then it’s gonna be by more equity. But at what sp? Probably a discount which is great if you are stumping up new cash but not necessarily for new investors, albeit, if it leads to a drill arguably they will see a recovery. Another view is why bother with hard nose Bpc when there are many other plays to be had in Africa and South America where the willingness to attract o&g investment and the tax regime, believe it or not, can even be more friendly than the UK let alone the Bahamas. As the holidays approach I think taking some risk off here while you can sell above 1.5 with a view to buying back in may be a smart move. Even if we get a blockbuster RNS it may be less risky to pay say 5p and ride from there than risk the lot should the potential knights decide to hang Bpc out to dry and come in later or not at all. Trek as I see it.
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