Member Info for TrekMadone

Always makes me wonder how the sp falls when indicative buys are well ahead of indicative sells.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/907114/touchstone-exploration-looking-to-release-first-ortoire-results-next-week-907114.html

Trek, with a lid on!

I keep thinking this is an AIM stock coz of its behaviour but it’s not it just behaves like one. I have today been burnt on ECO with a 50% hit (I’m cool with that as have many winners) and can’t help but draw comparisons between the two and the differences in my view. For E&P it’s Finance, Geo-analysis, drilling, proving (big risk), massive Capex, partnership, pumping together with the oil price back drop is not that dissimilar to ‘drilling’ for BTC really. Sure you get the price volatility but if you can drill/mine cheaply then it’s straight to pumping cash and the risks, whilst still high are much less and the Capex is massively less albeit the ROI is quicker it may not be as huge on a ratio basis as E&P but then comparing difficulty to Cos, difficulty is much safer. Just a view but you get the gist. Pick 3 oil E&P Companies or one BTC miner. I’m starting to think the odds at this price are with the BTC miner. I have never seen an E&P company making this ROI and it’s SP dives. The market will imo correct and now is one of those very rare times that a fleet of foot small time PI can get one over on the big boys who imo are trying to scare us off. There is no rationale reason for this sp. No heavy oil, no broken mining machines, no finding water instead of bitcoin, no dodgy CEO strategy or ramping statements. Gosh the list is endless. All I can say is....

Trek,

£1

andinio, good post,
“It comes down to one base question. Do you believe in the future of Bitcoin as an recognised store of value and would you like exposure to that asset via a proven & ambitious global mining Co?
It's a simple YES or NO.”

I would just like to qualify my view, ‘yes or no’ for as long as BTC survives for arb to pay the shareholders back for the value of the co/their investment.

So to illustrate, get the machines producing then it’s payback time. I reckon at this rate in 2 years time the company would have paid back its MCAP and some. So for me the question is will BTC be here 2 years hence and be >$5k. We are £18m MCAP, year one clear £18m easily on £5m a quarter. Year 2 it’s free money. I know it don’t work like that and my previously posted calculations are on a p/e basis but your question/point got me to consider thing from an angle of longevity of BTC.

BTC will die, there will be a quantum computer one day that will be able to unlock the keys but imo, that is many years off.

Trek

£1

Out, too many XEL memories. I must be the only punter here that has lost money on ECO. Invested elsewhere but have kept a good chunk aside to buy back in if next drill comes in and only then sometime after once the dust settles. This has been an absolute mess imo. API low and sulphur high, kept from market and released to media. All the rumours during sell off post drill of doubts about commerciality, disingenuous CEO, imo. Aim really sucks at times, thank heavens for SAVP keeping me ahead. Took me three years to recover Xel and I’m not going there again. Topped up in a couple of Cos that no one has heard of and the BB is nice an quiet. GFIN and DCTA. Not sexy but both financed and ready to step up.

Trek, GLA, us PI’s need it!

“I still believe Eco will get sold for multiples of todays share price.”

I think it may be sooner as that could be why all the big buys yesterday. Just don’t expect £5. £1.50 more like.

Trek

Well there is some confidence out there as most of the large trades on the HL trades tab are above the ask. It is only an indication but they won’t all be wrong.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/eco-atlantic-oil-and-gas-ltd-npv

Also given the SP tanking today Gil on Proactive was confident that it was an over reaction. He will know full well that the market may forgive him one spurt of ‘over optimism’ but two won’t be forgiven.

I hope these comments are more than straws!

Trek

Would Exxon take on the Fields? That’s where the energy should be. Let the experts buy these out and onwards with the 2020 drilling campaign.

Trek

Long may it continue. I am waiting for news elsewhere to sell into and then buy here.

Trek

£1

I am expecting a portion of any cash to be put aside for capex. The presentation only give $/bbl equivalent expenditure (slide 23) but I would expect, rather not be surprised that, following a prolonged deal completion we may need an infrastructure injection. It’s just how things go. I also note the following from Sept 18.

“The Swap is expected to lead to a significant reduction in SUGL's 2018/19 capital investment plans, where c.US$35m was anticipated to be spent on oil related capital expenditure at the Uquo Field following completion. The consideration of the Swap is therefore expected to be offset against associated reductions in capital expenditure.”

https://oilvoice.com/Press/22578/Seven-Energy-Transaction-and-Operational-Update

I very much doubt that sufficient investment has been carried out and I would expect a sensible capex plan to be forthcoming upon completion before the market gets carried away with itself expecting dividend payments. I personally would rather see a longer term strategy to nurture and grow the asset as we are about to embark on a growth phase.

Trek

Diversified, what an excellent reply and explanation. Please email AK and offer to write the RNS’s coz I only have to read your posts once!

Trek

I was looking for a trade sub 9p but luckily fully invested elsewhere now. Glad I didn’t, imo cash is tight, placing to come, insti’s will have to fund. Sure there will be another pipe dream RNS first to bump the price up (that’s when I was hoping to sell out) but at this rate a bump up could be from 5p to 7p! All way way too risky now. Better dreams elsewhere.

Trek, savp smoking!

Surprised at the wider news coverage. This news may just find itself in electioneering, oh how we love to lambast our potholes! But don't underestimate the transportation cost savings here should it be successful.

Great news and imo a ridiculously low Mcap for dcta's overall patent library!

We'll at least one of the worlds billionaires agrees with us!

Trek

GL with that. Looks like from the trades and same MM flags we have attracted some pro day traders now. Just buying and selling once the spread has cleared for 'small' profits with big stakes. I guess they feel if the sp drops they can sit on the shares else they are happy to nibble on the way up.

Trader Trek

Funny you should say that I sold AV today as they have had a good run and split the proceeds across BPC, SAVP, I3E and TXP 25% in each. The later three all have significant transformational news due soon so buying three is a good hedge.

Imo Good to reduce some blue chip exposure atm as index on a run and politics blah blah! Stocks like BPC could actually benefit. Long termers here will remember the rises on down market days.

Trek

Hi Hewak,

November the 5th 2010, 9 years to the day! I thought I had only been here 7 years, my how time flies. Yep, that must have been it although I seem to remember they were a conviction buy but my memory is probably being selective.

Just looking at those companies on the list so many are now bust like HAWK or taken over like NPE or now have a massively reduced SP like RKH. Just shows how over paid these brokers are, lol! When you look at it BPC have achieved a heck of a lot just to keep going! Perhaps I have been a little harsh on the BoD in some of my posts in the past? Nah!

That list to me just reiterates the simple and less stressful technique of reinvesting dividends. E.g. one could have bough LGEN for 1.70, now 2.70 and you would have more than doubled the number of shares you had by simply taking up the scrip option!

That imo is the advice GS should give cos their other recs have been pretty poor over the long run.

After near ten years I still am even which in reality is a massive loss when you look at missed gains and inflation. But hey what an opportunity for peeps buying now, all that potential upside without the ten years of purgatory. They could be the lucky ones!

Trek

Totally agree, JTK. Also wouldn’t be surprised if others buying now either know or know that the word that someone knows is about to breath and makes for an ‘easy’ trade. Also think their is a bit of open market buying to round off unfilled positions here following the placing as funds would be authorised.

Does anyone remember, don’t ask me the year, but BPC were given a conviction buy by Goldman Sachs? Prior to that there were trades in the multi million, 30/60m buys. It preceded the dizzy height rise based as it turned out on hope alone.

Well this time we have actual cash, and a green light to drill, sure loads more shares but I am expecting a decent rise to around 7p as news follows. I don’t expect to see anything like some of the prices purported here but a MCAP of £200m with a farmin and two drill option ahead of spud is possible.

Obvious caveat. This is oil and still a punt imo.

GLA

Trek

Totally agree, game on now for farm out. The cash position changes everything. If you are trying to farm down on a % basis only, with no funds and expect the farminee to pay for everything while you play hard ball bemoaning how much the siesmics cost and how much you value your alliances with cronies in govt, it’s worth jack....

Now if you proposes 50-50 cash and purport a second funded drill or sidetrack. That changes everything.

And it’s no wonder indicative buys at ~2p are massively ahead of indicative sells because the market is reviewing the odds of a farm out.

Trek, farminee - all ears now!

So why would it hit 1.8p after years of waiting to fund one of the most exciting drills of the decade with an opportunity to get in on a shared risk basis? Sure it may hover around 2p but anything below that now imo will be snapped up. I accept the volatility that’s about to come but I think ~2p will be a floor going forward. Why buy at 2p and sell at 1.8p. Sure there will be those with lower averages than 2p but if they were going to sell they could have done so above 2p by now so why, unless funds are needed, sell sub 2p.

The real risk is insti’s selling and shorting but even then that’s a big risk to assume they can force the sp below 2p. Not saying it won’t happen because this is aim but thinking aloud holders at around 2p should have future opportunities to sell now at a higher level.

Trek, probably over thinking! I think!

This was lined up in advance. SAVP did similar overnight recently. There are already insti’s waiting in the wings once they see the risk is shared.

“It is envisaged that the Bookbuild will be closed no later than 8.00 a.m. GMT tomorrow, 5 November 2019”

Now the fun begins, trying to work out if the insti’s offload for a small profit or hedge their positions. What we really need to follow is news to encourage volume so shares change hands to stickier fingers and I am sure we will be in for a massive run of news now. For those so inclined there is probably going to be lots of opportunities from ~2p to make money before we even spud.

My kids have finished schooling and left home since I first bought in here! So I am staying!

Trek, salivating! At long last!

Just reread my post, and either outcome I see Shore selling. The difference is it will be quicker and higher sp wise if the OO is fully subscribed. Sentiment is key on aim. That may or may not have been obvious.

Best

Trek