Member Info for TrekMadone

Basically, a pause, auction to match the book. Size/volume is irrelevant albeit they are more common during high volumes.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/products-and-services/rns/regulatory/headline/marketrnsrel.htm

Trek

Like I’ve said this has fallen on no news and will go up on no news. Note how by comparison the fall is a drip and the rise is more rapid, miss it and that’s 12% more to get back in. One swallow and all that but it may be as simple as the two new tranches of shares have caused a bit of an overhang which the market may have called and taken advantage of. Still need a bit more volume though to get us back to 27-28p. News will define help.

A trading and finance update wouldn’t go amiss. By the time everyone has had their slice, tax paid and any short term loan redemptions it would be good to let us know what the cash position is; are there any capex commitments and what are the current revenues. $54m question. What’s left what’s committed, whats coming in.

I’m sure it’s on it’s way but imo don’t expect over 28p without the hard baseline numbers.

Trek

Does best over winter, I expect news on new series soon.

Trek

The Whales have turned?

Got their shorts now for the longs.

Trek

£1

Logically it has to be and pretty significantly I suspect.

Trek

The problem is with transparency, there is nothing to stop institutional investors opening up a short position below notifiable threshold or in numerous aliases or using CFD’s which are not notifiable and selling down stock or using algorithmic trading to drip a share price and make a net gain on the short/cfd position. It’s good old lesser regulated AIM where smaller MCAP sp’s can be manipulated. Value will out.

Trek

I remember selling NPE many moons ago during a weird drop (not on this scale though) that came out of blue for no reason. Two days later they were taken over. I missed the prize. Not saying anything is happening here but stuff goes on all the time and for illiquid stocks highs and lows get exaggerated

Trekpidation!

Just a part of research imo. Decent punters wouldn’t be punting, they’d be sunning themselves. So all taken with a pinch. Malcy claims not to hold stock he tips, similar to Mickey Clarke (another stock market punter). They both probably have pensions though and imo it matters not. Could be that Malcy hasn’t reported here because he is loaded. Who knows, it’s just part of gleaning the landscape. In the end it’s the numbers that do the talking, well on aim you have to qualify that with eventually.

Trek, sanguine.

Right on queue, Malcy updates on the recent market action following a wine and dine tour in Africa...

https://total-market-solutions.com/2019/11/22/malcy-talks-oil-gas-xvi/

TXP....Nothing!

Trek, Sshh!

Oilmanjim mentions most of the oilies in his weekly blog. Nov 17th TXP got a mention...

“Touchstone Exploration (TXP) and Serinus Energy (SENX) announced third quarter 2019 results,”

That was it!

Previous to that was way back on Sept 8...

“Touchstone Exploration (TXP) is drilling the COHO-1 exploration well in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Results are imminent”

Previous to that was August 18th

“Touchstone Exploration (TXP), which announced interim results last week, also is drilling now. The COHO-1 well is said to represent the start of a potentially transformational period in the company's history.”

Note ‘transformational’ I expect OMJ will dig that out this weekend having done a bit of research here and let us know how he has plugged the stock even after several weeks of no mention, lol!

As for Malcy you gotta go back to the 14th March for...

“the company is in the process of ‘securing the required services’ to drill the Corosan exploration well. With a decent start to the year in production and an exciting prospect in Ortoire, TXP is exhibiting positive signs of cash flow and potential beta.”

You can also look at the post counter, UJO, UKOG, BLOE and even SXX (fagash) regularly in the hundreds. I notice we made over 50 with a transformational RNS, many of them posts were research from regular posters.

OMJ and Malcy are a couple of pundits that retail follow, there may be some aversion to T&T from RRL bad experiences but the point is whilst I have said the market is awaiting confirmation one also has to add into that that we are defo off the radar. It’s not a problem but I think this window won’t last for long. Hence a really good buying opportunity. I mean look at the chart. We have gas, a funded program, options for further funding and Sp is way off 12month highs.

Still who cares, publicity may help but not as much as a Shell farm in though! Very likely imo, economies of scale, under used infrastructure, ability for forward sales, tax benefits (I think someone mentioned that!). PhotographersTLP & Kingivor may have just read those tea leave explicitly imo.

Trek, Sshh.

Here is the latest from proactive, they have updated their deep dive but it’s a few days old.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/212816/touchstone-exploration-enters-new-era-following-results-from-coho-1-well-212816.html

Trek

“I think what we didn’t portray very well in our release was the fact that this well is likely to come onto production at that 12 million a day range. If you take a look at that, it basically means we’re going to double production from our existing production base when it comes on production at the end of the first half of next year.”

Not sure it would have made any difference, even by blowing the doors off with gas the response is pretty muted. It’s like the market wants to see it up and running. Investors on aim are quite rightly so sceptical now they want to see certainty before true value is attributed. The rest seems to be for traders.

This is where imo, the pi with some nous, patience and a view of more than 6 months could do very well averaging into a co like TXP. Problem is there aren’t many, at least not enough to move the dial on the sp.

Trek

It’s mostly due to a name change, I have had a similar TR1 from Miton for another holding. It would help if they completed the ‘Position of previous notification (if applicable)’ field but they don’t need to unless it’s a % change.

The event change could alter the holdings % of institutions but I doubt that the issue size is sufficient to trigger a % change.

As for the website number I don’t know how up to date it is. I use Morningstar and even there there are often prolonged delays on holdings updates.

Still, the ink will dry soon and I reckon we’ll be off on no news just a tipping balance of trades

Trek

“6 to7p my guess then double on spud.”

Don’t bank on it, gone are the days when aim rewards spud or even finding oil. Look at TXP SP massive gas find this week and near TD with second drill on an even bigger 90% Cos drill, fully financed, had very little dilution, directors in much higher and SP near all time lows or look at SAVP. Closed the 7 RTO deal, 5 discoveries, massive cash coming soon, directors and institutions in much higher and sp done diddly squat.

The move in sp will imo come before each event and news will be sold into. So many peeps fancy themselves as expert traders nowadays that aim has become less of a place to reward value. Mind you a lot of the ceo’s don’t exactly help themselves.

Trek

The madness of the stock market is such that it may be safer now to sell all ones blue chips and out it in Bpc. GE, Brexit, HK, trade wars etc lots of downside risk but Bpc seems to have a 1.90 intro day floor and well (pun) as for the upside from here. You decide, but imo even a 3 bag is possible.

Dyor

Trek

Still got legs to 20p imo, another drill result soon, should be appraisal really due to v high cos.

Hope you got some at 11.5p. Not long now before I get my ECO loss back, £20k turnaround in 1 week! That’s not bad while the paint dries on the deal here.

Trek.

“At present far to many share in issue.“

Doesn’t matter how many shares in issue it’s mcap that counts and demand for shares. So you buy 100 instead of 1. The spread at 8% indicates the MM wants to deter buying atm.

Who would buy and sell and loose 8% in a blink.

Imo This has legs now.

Trek

IMO you gotta read this a RNS with the points from August...

· Agreement with Seadrill for the provision of a sixth generation drilling rig, key commercial parameters agreed including day rate

· Appointed leading international contractor, Halliburton, as integrated well services provider, BakerHughes GE appointed to provide a range of well-related equipment

· Revised estimate of initial exploration well cost down to between US$25 - US$30 million (or
It’s the plan unfolding. Also farm in in background. Don’t be surprised if someone isn’t on sidelines ticking off boxes. More soon imo!

Trek

IJT,

It’s not the point. The point is info was withheld from the market for two long and leaked to the media. His statement was a twisted recognition of that, reading between the lines they fkd up!

The significance of the API and the sulphur is how it fits into TLW’s plans now. It potentially could change everything in terms of timelines as well as economics and even commerciality. Some had wind of this hence the drop from 1.80. It sucks.

Worse still Gil goes on Proactive waxing (lol) lyrical about how good they are and buys more shares . So he may not even have known then what the fk was going on. Both scenarios are bad.

Look I took risk and lost. That’s the game. It’s just that I don’t mind loosing to a duster but I don’t expect to be hijacked by a CEO that either doesn’t know what is going on or does and withholds. I actually think it was both before they came clean with this half update.

Sometimes you gotta take off those rose tinted glasses and look at the facts and change your mind.

I know there is no point in complaining to regulators etc but amongst this Imo, PI’s, self included, should learn another lesson from Aim that even those that seem to be honest and act with intelligence and integrity do not always turn out to be as we would hope. It’s life.

Genuinely GL to all here.

Trek

Disgusting!

“We recognise the market reaction to our last announcement on the oil quality discovered at Jethro and Joe....”

Well that make me feel better about loosing £20k that was invested on the back of the drilling updates!

And again they say ‘high sulphur’ and the media were told ‘very high sulphur’. Sorry Gil you have lost all credibility. Join the long list of AIM disingenuous managers!!

Trek