Member Info for TrekMadone

Starchild,

Good post this morning. It’s the same page that I am on. CERP need financing and imo BPC need additional funds for #P1. Whilst they can spud and drill there is no contingency for sidetrack or a second well. It would be remiss to just assume they could finance that as they go along.

BPC have been extremely innovative with its financing thus far under the most strenuous market conditions and they will continue to do so. Add into your view of a Bond, Equity, CLN, RBL or Farm-In or any combination of that there is also the option of onward sale of assets from CERP.

One thing is for sure to move forward with #P1, CERPS pf and now Venezuela is going to require a lot of money. Obviously not all at once, but sustaining that from relatively small levels of production and an unpredictable oil price macro is a big ask.

Surely the favoured option is to gain the lions share to fund a second drill via a farm-in. Now it may also be that a gift of some of CERPS acreage which is in a sought after area could tempt someone in to do just that.

CERP and BPC are to be married, I like your analogies, but for now the honeymoon sounds like mine. A weekend in a B&B in Torquay with no money and an old car that wouldn’t start in the morning! Still we made it work and I hope BPC do.

Atb

Trek

And my reply to the FCA..... extract.

“Thank you for looking into this, you asked if I should bring to you any further information that comes to my attention. Please can you also consider the following.

# On RNS No 6667Q box 1b ‘non UK issuer’ was not ticked. This means that the issuer had two trading days under the DTR to notify the market. They took 10 calendar days. I did not realise the significance of this box at the time and thought 4 days was appropriate as it was an international address but it is clear two trading days apply.

# Please can you also look at RNS No 0062R. Notified to the market on the 25/6/2020 that Acacia reduced their holding from 8.99% in 4D Pharma to zero % on the 24/6/2020. In this instance they were able to notify the market within the timescales so why didn’t they do so with RNS 6667Q.

# The second RNS 0062R came out after I had contacted you. My concern is now that delaying the first RNS enabled Acacia to get a higher price when selling the rest of their stock in 4D Pharma. Obviously without looking at the trades I cannot prove that but the failure to notify the market within the regulated timescales gives one serious concerns that a breach of trading regulations may have also taken place and that the delay wether intentional or not enabled Acacia to secure a higher price for the remaining sales.

I would appreciate you taking these additional concerns into consideration.”

Now one sees the second holdings RNS what do you think the chances are that some of those 8.99% of trades took part during the delayed notification of the first RNS or did they indeed clear out 8.99% of stock in two days.

Obviously it’s all conjecture but the delay is factual and that gives rise to a legitimate cause for concern which is in the public interest so I have no problem posting it. Had they followed the rules then there would be no issue. ATB.

Trek

I must say I am surprised to have got a reply and it’s very detailed. An extract is below, fair play to the FCA for taking a little investors concerns seriously. It may come to nothing but a point has been made....

“Thank you for your submission dated 23.06.2020 regarding Acacia Research Corporation’s major shareholding notification made in 4D Pharma Plc (the Company), an issuer whose shares are admitted to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange. We have noted your concerns around Acacia Research Corporation’s notification sent to the Company on 20.06.2020 after it reduced its shareholdings in the Company on 10.06.2020 from 10.81% to 8.99%.

This matter has been received by the Market Integrity Unit in the Market Oversight Directorate (MO) of the FCA. Our team is responsible among other things for monitoring compliance with major shareholding notification requirements under the Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules Chapter 5.

We are currently reviewing this matter with a view to determining whether it is appropriate for us to exercise any of our statutory powers. As part of such reviews we may use the information gathering powers available to us to seek further information from the subjects of the enquiry and reach out to other agencies as appropriate.

Once we have completed our review, we will consider whether it is appropriate for the FCA to launch a formal investigation via its Enforcement Division, whether some other form of intervention is required or whether the case should be closed with no action. In particular, an important part of our consideration is the potential seriousness of the misconduct....”

Etc...

ATB to the little people!

Trek

See my earlier post. The majority of the shares would have been placed. They may have just taken a few for the book but not 9%.

It depends who has them and what their current holding is before any TR1 is triggered so with 9% spread across several institutions there may not be a TR1. Note the placing was oversubscribed so there are likely takers and like I said I could sell 50k no problem so that indicates the shares are not clogging a book.

Re the SP. The MM has to drop the price to match a buyer. It’s how it works. To offload them in the 40’s after a placing in the 50’s is not a bad result imo.

There may of course be another seller but there is a market. Remember it’s the aggressors side of the trade that is posted but for a SOLD share there is a buyer somewhere.

If like me you take the view that the SP is depressed just because of a changing of the guard and not because of any underlying financial, scientific or operational issues then this is one massive opportunity for a PI.

You get to piggy back the insti trades a a distressed price below the placing. IF and only IF that is the only reason then that will settle and then this should find a new trading level.

I am confident enough to have invested significantly here, for me, with the intention of getting a near free carry from these levels. I did the same at NCYT, AVCT, ORPH and SNG recently and now I hardly look at them unless there is an RNS.

If it comes off I will add to a few others and start buying GSK so I can forget about it all!

Now that will be sweet! ATB

Trek

Well I thought I’d have a look since I use it as an investment tool. So peaking through hands over eyes with a set of rose tinted on what do we see.

How’s about a bathtub! Now that is a classic chart for the bottom feeders. Ok so how’s it gonna gap up, obviously in the absence of news.

Well there are a couple of flickers of hope. There is a big gap at 7.2 that technically although sold may be rebought stronger and going further back to around 18th Aug there is a gap of 13-16p that’s been sold but not bought. See hand full of straws!

So if one was trading 6.6 is the bottom of the bath and the taps are some way above 17p.

Now that’s what I like about charts, open for interpretation but then if I stumbled on this one now I’d buy. I have been doing the same at 4D on technicals and sometimes they pay off. If you can catch the knife before it hits the floor the most spectacular rewards are there but get it wrong and there’s blood everywhere!

Oh and long term happy place. 25-32p. ATB.

https://www.marketscreener.com/SAVANNAH-ENERGY-PLC-17083789/charts/

Trek

@Numptybuyer,

I couldn’t agree more. The only thing holding back the really big data is noise. The supercomputer’s are not that stable but Fugaku is making some inroads. Do you know they are even using its petaflops to try and solve Covid. See you gotta keep your eyes open especially if you also trade crypto. Don’t let that thing near my Bitcoins! ATB.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/a32947920/japanese-supercomputer-fugaku-fastest-computer/

Trek

Very bullish close today. So there are still two gaps, one at 132 and one at 125. The 125 one is where I think we may go unless it breaks through 138 as not all gaps get filled. It’s just that atm my view is there’s a risk hence I took a few off in the hope to buy back lower as 138 looked to be a glass ceiling.

So atm like most waiting for news. There’s nothing like a contract to have to recalculate one’s trading plans! Atb

https://www.marketscreener.com/ONCIMMUNE-HOLDINGS-PLC-27737217/charts/

Trek

Hi Ophidian,

Yes got it. Whilst not all gaps close as news may prevent it from doing so from a technical point that gap will be closed. The 20 DMA dipping below to 118 and then coming back up again to the 138 level.

https://www.marketscreener.com/AVACTA-GROUP-PLC-26123500/charts/

I get some posters are chart agnostic but imo having a basic understanding of the voodoo gives you an insight into what others think. That helps one understand how traders ‘are’ trading and it’s all research. Thanks.

Trek

Poised. 20 DMA has dropped through the 50, obviously, but it’s sat right on top of the 100!

Which way next, well from a charting perspective it normally dips below and then crosses back up again through the 100 and then we could be looking at crossing the 50 again going up to 57.5p.

Not that exciting I know but every little helps and it’s July on Wednesday!

https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNAIRGEN-PLC-4004905/charts/

Trek

Hi Ophidian,

Re the gap on 15/5, I have it as being closed on 15/16 June at the trough of the second wave, attached.

https://www.marketscreener.com/AVACTA-GROUP-PLC-26123500/charts/

Ps anyone shorting any aim shares or going long must be mad! The guaranteed stops only mean they will sell not necessarily at what price so if a LFD RNS lands at 7am, ouch!

Trek

Here you can see how charges are alluring. You can pay cash for BTC in Australia Post. It’s just extortionate but peeps like the brand and ‘security’. So PayPal will have a similar read across. They will want to be in this for all that juicy commission and just in case someone else beats them to it.

https://www.finder.com.au/you-can-now-pay-for-bitcoin-at-australia-post-offices-with-5-9-in-fees?utm_source=email_internal&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=recurring----gx-cryptocurrency&utm_content=20200026&utm_term=&futm_source=email_internal~

Trek

£1

A 5min read. Rationalises it a bit, obviously not a done deal but if it is the view is PayPal will advertise benefits to make on transaction costs. If PayPal adopt BTC trading.....well!

"The news offers another affirmation that traditional payment players can no longer ignore the potential business opportunity presented by crypto, and are now even willing to risk disrupting their own fiat based platforms," said Seamus Donoghue, VP of sales and business development at crypto tech firm METACO. "Evidently, PayPal has seen the success Cash App has had with crypto and wants a piece of the pie, and may view Venmo as a potential means of building a similar, sustainable business model."

"In 2017, retail fear of missing out was the theme that drove BTC towards $20,000. The interesting question now is: are we on the edge of an institutional fear of missing out that could bring crypto into the mainstream?"

https://www.finder.com.au/paypals-crypto-offering-how-big-a-deal-is-it?utm_source=email_internal&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=recurring----gx-cryptocurrency&utm_content=20200026&utm_term=&futm_source=email_internal~

Trek

£1

Well that’s a 50% retrace from a tad over the 220 high.

So if Fibonacci is right we should be in for a climb from 110.

I don’t know about that but what I do know is if I sell Sod’s law always comes in!

Trek

Not necessarily. Sure they may take a few for their book but most would have been placed.

I can get a price to sell 50k for 45.5p no problem. If the MM’s had a share of that stock i’m pretty sure 50k would be NT. I can’t check a dummy buy price as I have no cash left!

Trek

Some links to Nigerian marginal field bid round. Save get a mention just as a potential bidder but the flavour is there may be lack of interest due to macro and difficulty in financing E&P.

From slide 8 potential candidates...

It is expected that there will be minimal international E&P interest for a variety of factors including:

- Limited current interest in Nigerian oil & gas
- Requirement to partner with an indigenous E&P company
- Prevailing macro-economic climate and low oil prices
- Limited reserve/resource upside in a number of the Marginal Fields on offer
- 5-year timeframe to appraise/develop and bring the Marginal Field onstream
A short list of potentially interested companies includes:

https://redcliffenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200611_MF-Article-v4.2.pdf

https://www.malcysblog.com/2020/06/oil-price-ascent-deltic-gkp-and-finally/

Trek

Hi Wylie,

The stock is very illiquid here so the MM’s demand a premium for dealing in it. If you are looking to buy the recent substantial placing was at 75p. If you buy at around 75-80p as is now then I think that’s good value. You may find your buy goes NT (negotiated trade) as is often the case here. Try and buy in smaller lots and/or set a limit on your buy price rather than sending it fill or kill as you may be diddled for a high price!

It’s not really a trading stock although I did sell out ahead of the virus and bought back in lower having followed the news in Italy and couldn’t believe Dcta sp didn’t shift and then it dropped after I sold. That was more luck than anything!

We are expecting news from trials and most importantly orders. There is lots going on here but as yet it’s really a bet now on converting proven technologies into revenue. I must say I am disappointed that there is another trial in Kent for something that is proven albeit I get it.

I have been here for nearly 3 years and my honest appraisal is this next 6 months should be crunch time. Of course with there being so few shares if we get some decent orders and news the SP should go up very quickly.

So far this has been a slow burn but that’s how it goes.

Atb

Trek

61m shares 47m MCAP. 4 scientifically proven verticals, patent protected, global reach, significant holdings. It’s all about revenue now, simple as. There is no reason this company can’t build to 100m in revenues from tarmac, Grafysorber and tyres alone. Now that would result in a very interesting SP if Nant don’t buy us beforehand.

Trek

“I do have a theory on why Scally has gone quiet, but il share that when im on my pc next, as mobile has a habit of deleting a post when you are half way through typing, which is infuriating when its a long one.”

Try drafting a post on word or email and pasting across or download Brave from apps. It’s a new search engine is free, safe and doesn’t allow any ads through. Even if you just use it for LSE it’s worth doing!

Trek

Updated 24 June

https://www.4dpharmaplc.com/en/investors/shareholder-information

Trek

Well given the recent dip there are two ‘hemline supports’ 125 and 100. So having bought higher here at 135 I have sold some to hopefully pick up more shares at 125 area.

Now this is key! If it drops further I am happy to add as I am blown away by my research. If the SP rockets I will not be surprised but I will still take profits.

So in simple terms ONC, amazing Co, amazing prospects imo a true 5 bagger from here but you gotta work through it unless of course you are supernatural and cam pick an entry and forg!

Trek