Member Info for TrekMadone

It looks like 3.65 has held. That was a key technical support. If we can get into the 4’s this could move up very quickly as per my earlier post on the ‘chart’. I will take any voodoo to resuscitate this dead horse coz if it wakes it’s gonna bolt!

Trek

£1

BTC bounced off $9. Dow up, FTSE up, Asia was up, most metals are up, most energy is up, most agriculture is up most soft commodities are up if ARB aren’t up today I give up!

Trek

£1

Not a shake just a dump I’m afraid. Hopefully it’s near the end where they just chuck in what’s left as it won’t affect their overall average that much.

It’s pretty odds on that the drop is selling not science related.

Trek

Not calendar Q4, possibly financial Q4 but then after the readouts which is why I am invested. Even then running out does not necessarily mean fumes. They will have ops cash but possible not clinical trials cash. Fact is it’s a known unknown as opposed to a defined known and after the readouts something else may well come along.

Trek

Reply from FCA re delayed TR1 notification, allegedly!

“Thank you for your further email in respect of this matter. We acknowledge receipt and confirm that we will review the concerns you have expressed.

Yours sincerely,

Market Integrity Unit
FCA”

Trek

Yes, nothing in here for casca readout, yet, chinook spud, casca deep, gas sales or Royston. All relatively short term in the life of an E&P minnow. Sure probably got a bit in the SP for analogous geo and Cos but don’t be put off thinking TXP has had its rise. Far from it there is much more ahead than behind. All my view.

Trek

JCEP, you can do all the research in the world and then you end up here!

Trek

The money always runs out at some point. It’s what you spend it on that counts...

“The net proceeds of the Fundraising, together with the Company's existing resources, are expected to support its ongoing clinical studies in IBS and oncology and to enable the Company to continue to fund its operations to at least two clinical study readouts (as detailed further below), as well as for general corporate purposes.

Subject to reporting positive data from these studies, the Company believes these will provide a material validation for its approach to developing LBPs and also serve as value accretive events for Shareholders.”

So two clinical readouts, one of which is IBS.

Note also that the directors in for two million at 50p and the supporting warrants aren’t redeemable for 5yrs and then at 100p.

IBS is the main event here imo. Positive results there and it’s a takeover but they also have 6 other trials!

Trek

A bit punch drunk having researched so many small cap gold miners this weekend. Still got a little more to do here but it’s certainly come to the top of my analysis as a pure gold play. Low cost producer and more upside to come. So many in the exploration stage have very complex finance arrangements with pending warrants which could hit the market at any time and they are as much a play on debt rather than gold.

My concern here is the cost to develop new assets and that three institutions have reduced holdings following the ops update. They still may be selling, either profit taking or to free money for a funding. My speculation.

However, with over 5m in cash and 2.5m credit I think they can fund the development of west Kenya with little or no leverage. The vat returns have at last come through meaning a tax offset. It would be good to here a definitive financing plan from the company as they seem to want to pay down the debt as well. Atm they can’t do both.

Given though that they are in a much better financial position than many and the 80-85koz guidance has been held and they should average more than 15k for POG sales in second half I do rate this as a buy and will average in accordingly.

Just keeping some powder dry until funding explained and I am watching for any pull back in POG to sub 1700. I expect a pull back at some point before gold probably goes on another run.

Trek

This may well prove to be a viable alternative to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Success here would add MRx0518 as an alternative treatment so ‘all’ bases are covered. It’s no wonder Merck have a strategic position in 4D. It would be interesting to know if they can signpost a pt to the best pathway early on.

Totally agree with the R&D ‘extended’ facilitates. 4D have excellent state of the art production facilities (see vid on website) that would bolt on to any major.

Trek

Also reduced at ORPH to below notifiable threshold, they may be completely out there as well now.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ORPH/holdings-in-company-hz2bc8bptpuj6gv.html

In the scheme of things it doesn’t matter if they are in or out here, someone has had the shares and all that matters is the news.

Trek

Yes it was a good read but for balance. The piece was paid for by ORPH and re the payday “insiders believe” is not really a data point for valuation.

It does give one confidence though that Acacia were able to readily sell into a receptive market. Sure the SP has dipped but they have managed to offload without incurring ‘broker costs and legals’ with an institutional placing and nor have they had to delay RNS announcements to apparently cover their intentions like they did at DDDD and SNG.

I suspect they are completely out now and the SP should start to tick up from this nadir.

Trek

RTN, block trades do not change the notification period. If there are separate holdings they are aggregated and notified separately. DTR 5.2.1

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/

Trek

I think given the Woodford ‘issues’ and the amount of money PI’s have lost and the shenanigans of the recent LCF collapse which portray an impotent FCA they will be grabbing whatever easy wins they can. If they can collar Acacia for a DTR breach they will. Oh and they will be getting my freedom of information request in due course once they have had time to deal.

Trek

I have already registered a non compliance complaint under the DTR for 4D Pharma for late notification of change in holdings by Acacia. You can see the details on the BB.

I have now added another non compliance to the same complain for the FCA to investigate. I have posted it below with the email address. Please feel free to cut and paste. You will get a reply to say they are dealing with some additional auto generated guidance...

To: MIUMailbox@fca.org.uk

Subject: RNS 0204S, late notification of holdings complaint.

Dear Sir/Madam,

Further to the apparent non compliance under AIM Rule 17 and DTR 5 by Acacia holdings for RNS 6667Q for late notification of change of holding in 4D Pharma (DDDD) I wish you also to take into consideration RNS 0204S posted to today, 3rd July, for a change of holdings in Synairgen plc (SNG).

The holding was reduced from 12.56 to 9.55%, the threshold was crossed on 10/6/2020 and the market was notified on 3/7/2020. That’s 23 calendar days. Box 1b of the RNS indicates it is a UK issuer so the regulated notification period is two trading days!

Acacia also issued a further holdings RNS 0206S today, 3/7/2020 in the same company Synairgen Plc to advise that the threshold was crossed from 9.55 to 7.54% on the 1/7/2020 within the DTR guidelines. So why wasn’t the earlier threshold crossing notified appropriately.

It is my opinion that as a consequence of these apparent breaches the delayed notification potentially enables Acacia to secure a higher price for the subsequent sell down.

What is the point in having these guidelines if institutions just disregard them. Please can you deal with this apparent non compliance urgently. Thank you.

Kindest Regards

Trek

Ps. I will post any additional replies here and on DDDD as as far as I’m concerned this is in the public interest and potentially affects all investors and to be fair the FCA have advised that they are taking this seriously.

Last comment.....

“Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, also gave evidence to the committee, warning that the UK must 'prepare for the worst' this winter, rather than rely on the development of a vaccine.

But he said he has now seen tests for coronavirus of a good standard which can produce a result in a 'few minutes'.

Sir John said: 'That would be transformative because we could all test ourselves regularly and test our kids after they've been off to a rave and all that stuff.'

He also urged Britons to have the flu jab to 'avoid pandemonium in A&E departments “

Make of it what you will!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8481619/Could-pill-gut-bacteria-treat-Covid-19.html

Posted by Rog83 on DDDD

Trek

Add to that look at the holdings. Patrick shoon-Shiong 28% a multi billionaire affectionately known as the worlds richest doctor, and he took part in the recent 75p placing. He owns Nant a US environmental business.

With so few shares in issue and a low mcap when a decent contract lands from any one of 4 main verticals this should really fly. Plus they have existing revenue streams. Atb

Trek

Heading for backwardation in a moment where it’s dearer to sell and cheaper to buy. Well just as well be done with it and give away the last few shares so we can move on!

Trek

Having red the RNS I have actually warmed to this trial now. I did think the association with asthma was a bit loose but there are a few positives in there that I was ignorant of...

1. Absolute key statement “enrolling up to 90 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in the UK” . I did have an oh sht moment thinking it was aPlymouth area trial! As would be difficult to get numbers.

2. “The primary endpoint of the trial is the mean change in clinical status score as measured by the WHO Ordinal Scale for Clinical Improvement.” This should not be too arduous because out of the blue we have....

3. "Immunomodulatory intervention in COVID-19 is supported by recent positive results from the UK's RECOVERY trial, showing dexamethasone reduces the risk of death in hospitalised patients. We believe MRx-4DP0004 has a mechanism of action that may be complementary to that of dexamethasone, which has now become standard-of-care across the UK's National Health Service (NHS).

Now imo that is a significant positive. Must say I am eating my hat this morning as I thought this news would have taken out the sellers but like I maintain. Forced selling is an opportunity for PI’s. There is nothing derogatory thus far with the science other than a delay. But when you read the last paragraph.....

“The Company has six clinical studies in progress, namely a Phase II clinical study of BLAUTIX® in Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), a Phase I/II study of MRx0518 in combination with KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) in solid tumours, a Phase I study of MRx0518 in a neoadjuvant setting for patients with solid tumours, a Phase I study of MRx0518 in patients with pancreatic cancer, a Phase I/II study of MRx-4DP0004 in asthma, and a Phase II study of MRx-4DP0004 in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Preclinical-stage programs include candidates for CNS disease such as Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative conditions. The Company has a research collaboration with MSD, a tradename of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA, to discover and develop Live Biotherapeutics for vaccines.....”

Just how many shots on goal for £44m mcap and £22m cash (ish)! Plenty of time to buy now and de-risk later here imo. Just average in slowly with a little patience. GLA. Usual caveats.

Trek

I asked Adam about the volumes with the caveat that obviously nothing sensitive can be shared. He is very approachable and engaging. I post an extract of his reply below as it is nothing different to what we have been told within the context of the ‘ pent up demand’ but it is nonetheless encouraging for investors to hear the positivity...

“We are seeing unprecedented interest in EarlyCDT products from health systems that are very well known to be typically conservative in their engagement with industry. Certainly, the burden of cancer and its under-diagnosis at this time have contributed to this. We remain primed to support where and when possible.”

ATB

Trek