Member Info for TrekMadone

I am always on the look out for threats to my investments. Don’t know why really as they still catch me out lol!

Anyways I am ultra positive here and on BTC but my view is technology has created this opportunity and technology will replace it. No idea when though.

Any new eco systems, blockchain consolidation or whatever will obviously have to cater for BTC. Without BTC you basically don’t have a viable blockchain. If anything the blockchain is a threat to the Internet which is clunky and due to be updated and blockchain is an obvious replacement.

But the threats to all come from quantum computing. ATM they can’t fathom the noise and heat issues but in the next say arbitrary 5 to 10 years they just might and that will then be the threat to the blockchain. Well actually a threat to life as we know it because any technology lock can then be picked!!

So I guess we will all need physical PM’s as even off grid BTC will be pretty useless.

Pretty apocalyptic hey! Just made a case for buying some gold or silver coins.

There ya go Duke something for the mattress!

Google been working on it for years now but don’t worry they got no chance as none of the team wear glasses! Lol!

https://research.google/teams/applied-science/quantum/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50154993

Trek

£1

The MM’s have been trying for ages here to clear the seller. There has been so much ALGO trading as they try and force liquidity.

https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/SAVE/trades

Market Maker Schemes are part of their day job else stock doesn’t get shifted.

Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades. Worth learning the offside rule before you play footy because you can be sure the MM knows all the rules!

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

Ps I can’t help out anymore! Getting so frustrated now as other opportunities about to pop and too much cash stuck in here waiting for double figures to slice and ride!

ATB

Trek

$$$$$$$!

Jerome is going longer now. ‘Kicking the can’ and pushing the 10 year treasury curve higher. Gold is just getting started. All the evidence is starring us in the face and GRL about to rise a massive wave. Permit next week I reckon....

From Bloomberg yesterday....

The U.S. government will push its fundraising to new extremes this quarter to cope with a budget deficit unseen since the country mobilized to fight World War II.

“The Treasury expanded its plans for borrowing at longer maturities in the coming months, saying Wednesday it will sell a record $112 billion of securities at next week’s so-called quarterly refunding of maturing Treasuries. Over the three months through October, it will boost its offering of notes and bonds by a total of $132 billion compared with the previous quarter, and rely more heavily on securities due in seven to 30 years.“.....

“Auctions of two-year, three-year and five-year notes will rise by $2 billion per month over the quarter through October
Seven-year note auctions will climb by $3 billion per month
“Increases of $6 billion to both the new and reopened 10-year note auction sizes, and increases of $4 billion to both the new and reopened 30-year bond auction sizes starting in August”
“Increases of $5 billion to both the new and reopened 20-year bond auction sizes starting in August”
Floating rate note sales will also be increased”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-05/u-s-treasury-plans-a-record-112-billion-quarterly-debt-sale?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=200807&utm_campaign=fixedincome

Trek

Tryandtryagain,

What bit do you want me to explain. Do you understand that parentheses = loss?

Look at how much cash they raised from CLN’s on my earlier post. Sure look at cash balance but then factor in losses and run rate from those cln’s and if you need any further convincing just DYOR and compare this going concern statement with other companies that are cashed up or even borderline...

As an example ( my words from memory)

“ co x has enough cash and cash equivalents for the foreseeable future to meet all foreseeable liabilities, reasonable risks and meet criteria to remain a going concern for the coming year.... “ or even type in a covid caveat! Like as long as no further covid deterioration we will continue as a going concern or words to that effect as opposed to...

My earlier IQAI post re going concern statement and likely needing cash, you get the gist.

Likely in business speak = inevitable! It’s just when!

Do you now get it?

In fact I don’t know why I bother. It’s like unless you blow smoke peeps aren’t interested! I have tried to explain that whilst the financial situation is negative they could take a payment non refundable or refundable for the rights to explore DD.

This is a sought after product.

My shty research basing this on ONC blood antibody sales at £70 a pop to PHE or €1000 for another antibody test or the last $26m US deal for thousands of tests is as close a comparator as I can find.

It’s not in the same league as the billions for treatments like 4D with huge milestones but it’s still imo significant.

Look at it this way a £5m cash deal is immense for this balance sheet. It’s gonna be north of that. I reckon £20-£26m and that would mean buy out. So an investment here at 7p should do well. And investment here at 9p will see a decent profit and much needed relief.

So my punt stays but here’s a new phrase this is a lifestyle biotech!!!

You’ll work it out. Usual caveats!

Trek

Ah well I guess that’s the finance question answered! Listen to Trek, I know how to read a balance sheet.

But anyways like I posted before it can be resolved with a little innovation. The positive is though now looking at the numbers yes they could freewheel to a deal but I don’t know if they will. They may go for cash either the tried and trusted CLN or bookbuild.

CLN is pushing the leverage of a few investors. If TB buys again that’s a big rec. If it’s accelerated bookbuild I’d say it’s sharing the risk unless we get a decent director take up.

The cash burn here is astonishing, in all honesty with lock down in June and capex covered I don’t know what they have been doing with the money. The results aren’t audited and the detail is very thin!

If you need anymore hints...

“The current economic conditions continue to create uncertainty, particularly over (a) the level of demand for the group's products; and (b) the availability of finance for the foreseeable future. The group's forecasts and projections, taking account of reasonably possible changes in trading performance, show that additional funding will be required either via an issue of equity or through the issuance of convertible loan notes. The Directors are reasonably confident that funds will be forthcoming if and when they are required. The Chief Executive Officer has provided a letter of financial support to the Group to make sufficient funds available, if required, to ensure the Group can meet its obligations over the going concern period.

Taking in to account the comments above, the Directors have, at the time of approving the financial statements, a reasonable expectation that the Company and the Group have adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. Therefore, they continue to adopt the going concern basis of accounting in preparing the financial statements”

So for those that can’t read a balance sheet and those that think they can but need a little help you have a ‘sugar daddy’ CEO balls deep!!

Anyways I’m still freewheeling as it’s gonna be a smash and grab at a shade over 9p which is a decent punt return imo! And that makes this a buy and forget pillage!!

All the best

Trek

Lol lmfao! Ignore from ONC as I thought I was on the IQAI board!

But yes I’m in Sym! And and if the tech gets verified it’s a rocket! Lol!

DCTA is a disruptive tech comparator here.

Apologies for confusion.

Back to my Rioja!

Trek

Hi Dartron,

You are welcome. I am in TXP now for a +£90k free carry. I am letting that ride.

Even though I am extremely bullish please consider slicing. It’s only gonna 3 bag from there if lucky more. Put your stake to work! Sorry that’s not advice as finding alternatives are difficult.

I shorted HSBA, TUI and EZJ when I saw the Wuhan news.

I posted on hsba along the lines of if UK plc built a 1000 bed hospital in the middle of Hyde park and said don’t worry, (referring to the wuhan hospital) and you lot, uk, aren’t worried.! That’s madness!

I wrote to my mp about buying hand gels, ppe etc bla bla back in February and posted it on the ncyt bb.

Anyways I made a few bob buying Covid plays for family and friends.

Lost a lot of love on some BB’s for top slicing or even selling and re buying recently though! Lol!

Anyways yes I have a punt here but it’s only a punt due to cash burn.

ONC sell similar diagnostic products circa €1000 a test. They also have US deal for blood antibody test and Uk deal £70 test.

The accumulation is in millions. NOT hundreds of millions.

But the point is even £5m will transform this company. But looking at ONC and it’s a very very vague comparison. My GUESS is £20-£26m for everything. They may get more but like I intimate £5m as a min for licence +£20m for lot.

Sure DD etc, that won’t take long. Tech is proven and there is a customer pt closed loop

Trek

Hi Ophidian,

Thanks for that. Not a leading question. Can you let me know how they will be sure of batch to batch consistency for the antigen, especially across different manufacturers.

Thanks in advance.

Trek

Buys v sells.

They are only an indicator here. As MM schemes are Mifid compliant so are the buy sell executions but peeps thing because it shows as a sell here it’s a sell. It’s not it’s a trade and we never know for sure if the aggressor was a seller or buyer.. it’s even harder when the spread goes out.

This may help....

# The published trades here can be 15mins late.
# Especially if the spread is wide, there is no way of knowing what side of the mid point the trade was or that said if it’s close you can’t tell buy from sell!
# If a sp falls quickly sells will look like buys as by the time the algorithm runs it puts a sell above the mid point and shows it as a buy.
# If a sp rises quickly a buy will look like a sell as by the time the algorithm runs it will be below the mid point so the buy looks like a sell.

# Furthermore with a wide spread you may find some MM’s are so far apart from the mid point so how do you know if it’s a buy or sell.?

# If you use interactive investor you may get a prompt, we have improved your order by £162 so your buy may look like a sell when published as there was one MM with a better book.

# or the stock may be illiquid and there is only 1 MM with the min so they push the spread out, I have seen 40% spreads on AIM, to deter trades. See volume and liquidity are key to gauging value.

I hope that explains some of the myths. But what difference does it make.

For every buy there is at some point a sell, why do you think the London Stock Exchange don't say buy or sell. It’s just a trade to them. It’s just the aggressors price that is published. I.e the trade instigator. The simplest way to gauge the buy/sell demand is the SP trajectory, the volume, and the chart candles.

Over the last couple weeks these are sold over the last couple months they are being bought. Hence it’s worth using the charts and looking at the RSI.

Trek

ALGO trades are part of MM schemes...

Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades. Worth learning the offside rule before you play footy because you can be sure the MM knows all the rules!

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

ATB

Trek

From RNS...

“Clinical validation is the process of evaluating the performance of a diagnostic test using real patient samples. Clinical validation generates the sensitivity and specificity performance parameters which are most often used to define the performance of a diagnostic test.



LSTM is currently evaluating the performance of prototype lateral flow tests provided by Cytiva alongside Avacta's ELISA laboratory test using SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus samples, as a precursor to full clinical validation studies.”

Very encouraging that the baseline is sound. Important that the controls are 100%!

“Antibodies Specific to SARS-CoV-2 Antigen

One of the main concerns for the antigen tests is whether the antibody pair also detects other circulating coronaviruses. To further validate the specificity, these antibodies were tested against a full panel of N proteins from the common coronaviruses. The result came back as all antibodies against the N proteins have no cross-reactivity in ELISA.”

https://www.sinobiological.com/research/virus/immunodiagnostic-sars-cov-2-antigen-test?utm_source=newsmedical-antibodies&utm_medium=etoc&utm_campaign=aug-ncov-antigen-test

Trek

Not a bad move.

BTC stuck in a channel. Sold at $11.8ish bought at $11.2sh. Margin trading seems to have the upper hand atm.

It needs a kick from somewhere to wave goodbye to $12.

All that said though if ARB stays above 6 things look good as our sellers at 4 are defo sellers at 6.

So I guess all in all we are consolidating, Zzzzz!

Well that’ll do for now!!

My money is on the next move being up so buy the dip and offload em when we breach $12 good n proper. Basically set up an ARB trading range ahead of BTC’s next move. I hope that makes sense...

If not just hang on to the buggers for the Christmas launch into orbit!

Trek

£1

Nearly, still a few nervous holders out there. This may help from interactive investor site...

POG $2300, aligns with my own charts but that was by Christmas!

“Gold's behaving like a ramped AIM stock. When we gave our (astoundingly accurate) gold prediction on 24th June, we anticipated some hesitation around the $2,055 (£1,569) level.

We did not expect the hesitation to last for just 22 hours and only provoke a $25 reversal before climbing. But that's what happened, with the precious metal again hitting another all-time high on 6 August.

So what's next, given gold has managed to exceed our $2,055 level?

Is the metal about to leap upward to $3,000, as some analysts are predicting?

We are forced to be a little optimistic now, as above $2,070 now looks capable of a further rise to $2,093.

If bettered, secondary calculates at $2,165, but overall we're forced to admit $2,299 works out as the next major point of interest, a price level where ‘normal rules’ again mandate some volatility should be expected.

If it all goes wrong, the earliest warning signal looks like the yellow stuff trading below $2,028, as this allows reversal to an immediate $2,016 with secondary, when broken, calculating at $1,995.

If this happens it could also tumble to $,1956 with painful speed as the price attempts to mimic what happens to over-enthusiastic AIM shares.

For the present, the big picture is quite serious, suggesting the $2,300 level should be treated with respect. It's a ‘higher high’ thing!“

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/where-next-ftse-100-and-gold-ii513141?utm_source=IBMW&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Afternoon_round_up_newsletter_070820&utm_content=&spMailingID=10176700&spUserID=MTM4NzM1MzkzOTY4S0&spJobID=1572202931&spReportId=MTU3MjIwMjkzMQS2

Trek

Hi PL75,

Yes I have run large scale telecoms operations across countries and project managed new infrastructure investment but your not investing in me.

Bit of constructive criticism should t go amiss on a BB and I didn’t mention the SP going up. Apparently the yanks are going to do that for us! Lol!

Atb

Trek

Morning OaW,

Funny thing is when I posted that DL came to mind! Lol. My worry is Al is working on it. I had concerns having thrown the kitchen sink in here yesterday!

He needs to use the folk around him to timeline this stuff and build a news story. This RNS was great news 4 weeks ago. Today it is what we already had thought had happened. Hence my calling it out.

All live and learn though and it’s defo not a basis to sell and doesn’t change the end game. It’s just a silly ‘pass back’ that will soon be forgotten.

ATB.

Trek

Yes it’s good news but it’s late and naive. Given that they had been in partnership for some time as part of validation that is when we should have had this news, not now!

FFS the basic management of newsflow naivety exposes so many directors on AIM! They over promise following a ‘SP hubris tailwind’ and then realise things aren’t always as straightforward.

I just hope Al is learning quickly before we get into the territory of big bucks deals and manufacturing constraints/timelines etc to deliver them.

Atb

Trek

Don’t think a buy back is always a panacea. Look at YCA and EMG. Both been buying or ages. There are other examples as well.

I’ve no idea why they don’t rise.

I think in saves case they could buy back and park the shares in treasury. Then if they need money they can sell them again on the back of a higher sp. e.g finance drilling after gas contracts signed.

That saves expense of placings etc.

Trek

Milton,

You can’t determine buys/sells like that...

Any spread of over an arbitrary 3% is pretty useless for gauging buys and sells, today it’s been 8% here. The LSE algorithm used on this page only gauges a buy or sell according to if the trade was above or below the mid point at the time it ran.

So here are some facts.

# The published trades here can be 15mins late.
# If the spread is wide, there is no way of knowing what side of the mid point the trade was.
# If a sp falls quickly sells will look like buys as by the time the algorithm runs it puts a sell above the mid point and shows it as a buy.
# If a sp rises quickly a buy will look like a sell as by the time the algorithm runs it will be below the mid point so the buy looks like a sell.

# Furthermore with a wide spread you may find some MM’s are so far apart from the mid point so how do you know if it’s a buy or sell.?

# If you use interactive investor you may get a prompt, we have improved your order by £162 so your buy may look like a sell when published as there was one MM with a better book.

# or the stock may be illiquid and there is only 1 MM with the min so they push the spread out, I have seen 40% spreads on AIM, to deter trades. See volume and liquidity are key to gauging value.

I hope that explains.

ATB

Trek

Sherwood...

Any spread of over an arbitrary 3% is pretty useless for gauging buys and sells. The LSE algorithm used on this page only gauges a buy or sell according to if the trade was above or below the mid point at the time it ran.

So here are some facts.

# The published trades here can be 15mins late.
# If the spread is wide, there is no way of knowing what side of the mid point the trade was.
# If a sp falls quickly sells will look like buys as by the time the algorithm runs it puts a sell above the mid point and shows it as a buy.
# If a sp rises quickly a buy will look like a sell as by the time the algorithm runs it will be below the mid point so the buy looks like a sell.

# Furthermore with a wide spread you may find some MM’s are so far apart from the mid point so how do you know if it’s a buy or sell.?

# If you use interactive investor you may get a prompt, we have improved your order by £162 so your buy may look like a sell when published as there was one MM with a better book.

# or the stock may be illiquid and there is only 1 MM with the min so they push the spread out, I have seen 40% spreads on AIM, (this is main market but can still be wide) to deter trades. Volume and liquidity are key to gauging value.

I hope that explains some of the myths.

Trek

Delayed trades...

Late trades...sections g3013 and g3020 key. Nothing sinister and MiFID compliant...

In relation to rule 3012, where two member firms agree at or prior to the time of the trade, the responsibility for trade reporting may be delegated to the other member firm.

The rule recognises that member firms may wish to delegate the trade reporting responsibility to the other member firm. This may arise where a member firm trades infrequently and hence wishes to always delegate the reporting process or where the non reporting member firm wishes to gain protection under the deferred publication facility but the reporting member firm does not.
(Amended N09/17 – effective 3 January 2018)
Standard trade report deadlines [3020-3021]

Where a trade is executed during the trade reporting period, a trade report shall be submitted to the trading system in accordance with the standard trade report deadline.

Guidance to Rule:
The trading system will immediately publish a trade report unless deferred
publication is requested (and the trade qualifies for a delay). (Amended N09/17 – effective 3 January 2018)

And these are the addressable concerns

A member firm shall not:
aggregate trades in order to qualify for treatment under the deferred publication facility; add subsequent trades to a deferred publication in order to increase its size; or
submit or agree to submit a correction for the sole purpose of re-reporting a trade in order to gain or extend a delay in publication.

Less technical explanation.....from FAQ’s

When can the deferred publication regime be used?

A member firm should only request deferred publication where the member firm is dealing on its own account (as principal) and the transaction is between the member firm and its customer.

How can I request deferred publication of a trade?

A member firm may request deferred publication of a trade by submitting a trade report with either the ‘OK’ (for an ordinary trade) or ‘NK’ (for a negotiated trade) trade type. MillenniumIT will determine whether a delay should be applied based on the relevant publication regime.

References..

Handbook
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/traders-and-brokers/rules-regulations/rules-lse.pdf

FAQ’s
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/traders-and-brokers/membership/faqs/rulebook-faq/rulebook-faqs.htm

Trade flags/types
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/prices-and-markets/prices-help/trade-type.htm

Trek