Member Info for TrekMadone

Good narrative Yorkie! Thanks for sharing.

Xan,

Couple of questions for you regulars -

do you think the seller that has been in the wings these last few days is done?

Possibly, sometimes they take a break to get a better price. Best to look at the SP performance over a week or more and look at the RSI on the chart to see how it’s holding up.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/GRL/goldstone-resources-limited/company-page

I hope chart settings have saved. The chart shows rsi 14 over 6 months. It only dipped once, 23rd March below the line at the bottom half of chart. Then see how quickly it picked up. Again it dipped 4th Aug and bounced off the rsi as buyers come in and pick it up. So overall while there may be a seller, it’s small scale. You can use the rsi to buy the dip.

why does this stock in particular seem to have so many delayed publications on the (relatively) larger trades that appear ?

Delayed trades are MM filling an order from often several sources and they can’t always be posted at the time. I will post a technical explanation separately.

Any thoughts on whether todays rebound and this unusual activity late on in the day today is leaky related ? or do we think the interest/volume is related to POG now sitting above 2k

We don’t know it can be one of or a combo of...

#MM has received an RNS alert. Now be funny if we get RNS tomorrow!
#News out in Ghana, people buying here. I looked around the govt sites and couldn’t find a list of authorised permits. Only how to submit one.
# buyers buying dip
# junior miners now in vogue due to POG , that will happen imo big time soon.
# seller paused
# shorts closing. Not here though.

These are all ‘could be’s’ we seldom know unless we see a TR1 or some big delayed trades.

Atb

Trek

“Please forgive me my ignorance - what's a CBT?”

Computer based training. It’s a common term for a training package. Often an annual ‘tick box’ exercise.

Trek

Got same reply as 4D...

I basically followed up and said what’s the point in complaining if you don’t give the public confidence that you are doing anything. Here’s the cop out reply. Looks like they’ll have to do a CBT! Ffs!

“Dear Trek,

Thanks you for your additional email dated 01.08.2020 in relation to the issues you raised to us on Acacia Research Corporation’s major shareholding notification made in 4D Pharma Plc (the Company), an issuer whose shares are admitted to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.

We have looked into the issues you reported to us, however, as explained in our previous emails dated 26.06.2020 and 01.07.2020, although we take all complaints raised to us seriously, we are not able to provide details to members of the public about our assessments unless our work results in a public disciplinary outcome. We understand that this can sometimes be frustrating but you can find further information on why we take this approach here.

Nonetheless, in this opportunity we would like to point out that the FCA has a range of options available to ensure market participants meet their notification and disclosure obligations under the rules such as preliminary reviews, educational letters and concerns letters that are not public disciplinary outcomes. These actions are part of our supervisory work and we may use them instead of public enforcement actions when appropriate.

Hope this information helps. Please do not hesitate to contact us if any further information comes to your attention in relation to this matter.

Yours sincerely

Market Integrity Unit

Primary Market Oversight / Enforcement and Market Oversight Division“

Trek

I basically followed up and said what’s the point in complaining if you don’t give the public confidence that you are doing anything. Here’s the cop out reply. Looks like they’ll have to do a CBT! Ffs!

“Dear Trek,

Thanks you for your additional email dated 01.08.2020 in relation to the issues you raised to us on Acacia Research Corporation’s major shareholding notification made in 4D Pharma Plc (the Company), an issuer whose shares are admitted to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.

We have looked into the issues you reported to us, however, as explained in our previous emails dated 26.06.2020 and 01.07.2020, although we take all complaints raised to us seriously, we are not able to provide details to members of the public about our assessments unless our work results in a public disciplinary outcome. We understand that this can sometimes be frustrating but you can find further information on why we take this approach here.

Nonetheless, in this opportunity we would like to point out that the FCA has a range of options available to ensure market participants meet their notification and disclosure obligations under the rules such as preliminary reviews, educational letters and concerns letters that are not public disciplinary outcomes. These actions are part of our supervisory work and we may use them instead of public enforcement actions when appropriate.

Hope this information helps. Please do not hesitate to contact us if any further information comes to your attention in relation to this matter.

Yours sincerely

Market Integrity Unit

Primary Market Oversight / Enforcement and Market Oversight Division“

Trek

Or they’d have to buy avct to make it like America! Lol!

Trek

Sona getting battered, 18% down.

They may have clicked that BBI don’t commit this capex, overtime and resources to produce millions of tests in advance for a product that they haven’t even seen working!

I mean can you imagine what a laughing stock they’d be! Penny will drop here soon.

Trek

Possibly, up 13% now!. What a shake that was!

Did you see the 3x£10k sells pretty close together and the 200k.

I have been on the wrong end of it before. A SP dripping down then a big drop and you question your sanity and eventually sell some. Glad we held our nerve and even better for those that topped up! Well done!

Got a nice feel this BB!

ATB

Trek

I am amazed at the underperformance of the SP today. I have taken the top off of several other stocks that I had no intention of selling to add into here now.

Have read the RNS several times just to make sure! Don’t the market realise the amount of DD that BBI would have undertaken before they committed to this?

I think the market see’s it as a delay, that’s my only explanation. I’d swap ‘as soon as possible’ as opposed to a given date for this level of surety any day!

Oh well gone overweight again now.

ATB

Trek

Sorry last link cut off....

https://www.marketscreener.com/GOLDSTONE-RESOURCES-LIMIT-23084779/charts/

Trek

I posted this on another BB when someone asked for buy/sell/ALGO clarity

Any spread of over an arbitrary 3% is pretty useless for gauging buys and sells. The LSE algorithm used on this page only gauges a buy or sell according to if the trade was above or below the mid point at the time it ran.

So....

# The published trades here can be 15mins late.
# If the spread is wide, there is no way of knowing what side of the mid point the trade was.
# If a sp falls quickly sells will look like buys as by the time the algorithm runs it puts a sell above the mid point and shows it as a buy.
# If a sp rises quickly a buy will look like a sell as by the time the algorithm runs it will be below the mid point so the buy looks like a sell.

# Furthermore with a wide spread you may find some MM’s are so far apart from the mid point so how do you know if it’s a buy or sell.?

# If you use interactive investor you may get a prompt, we have improved your order by £162 so your buy may look like a sell when published as there was one MM with a better book.

# or the stock may be illiquid and there is only 1 MM with the min so they push the spread out, I have seen 40% spreads on AIM, to deter trades. Vol and liquidity are key to gauging value.

I hope that explains some myths. But what difference does it make.

For every buy there is at some point a sell, why do you think the London Stock Exchange don't say buy or sell. It’s just a trade to them. It’s just the aggressors price that is published. I.e the trade instigator. The simplest way to gauge the buy/sell demand is the SP trajectory, the volume, and the chart candles. So over the month the shares are in demand.

Now amongst that you do get MM schemes, often ALGO driven or granted more ‘Machiavellian’ behaviour if there are just a few MM’s holding a book and usually in low volumes to create liquidity but they have to follow the MiFid rules and post a scheme. That is not the case here with often 5 books albeit a low volume,

Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades. Worth a basic grasp of the offside rule because you can be sure the MM knows all the rules!

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

Here is the daily volume.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/GRL/goldstone-resources-limited/trade-recap

Here are today’s trades. NO ALGO trades but anything over 8k shares looks to be a large order LRGS.

https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/GRL/trades

You can look at the buy sell candles on any free charts. I use market screener. We have a staircase type pattern 4 steps up which is very strong. Resistance 9.2. We will have another leg or two up then likely travel along a corridor.

https://www.marketscreener.com/GOLDSTONE-RESOURCES-L

hawkk,

Thanks for posting that. I have been in touch with many of the CEO’s of companies I invest in but not Emma. However, I did see an investor podcast and she came over very well. She emphasised the team working will Bill helping out and her previous experience. I am pretty sure we are in safe hands. It just takes a penny rise and sentiment will change.

Another aspect is as the stock is pretty illiquid it does get played on low volumes and the MM will take advantage of that to create liquidity. It is part of their role. Like you intimate there is no substitute for understanding the investment case and sticking with one’s guns as long as everything is in the open. Having dug around I can only assume there is no hidden agenda causing this dip. The MM knows the permit is due. It’s been telegraphed. If the SP were to go on a run from here the MM could be well short of stock. They will be doing their best to build positions not just here but across many AIM gold stocks. The alternative would be unsustainable bubble territory with no relationship to earnings. Just like in the 90’s!

ATB

Trek

Don’t worry lessons learnt.

It’ll be ready “as soon as possible”.

Trek

Indeed mcivorv2.0.

I just checked the MIC and it is indeed XLON. Behaving like AIMX though. My bad! ATB

Trek

Not bothered that it hasn’t risen. Just profit taking from those smart enough to be in early imo. I posted same at GRL where I was a little concerned but like here reading back through the RNS’s and looking at the chart helps contextualise.

I would add here at these levels if I could but money tied up atm. Hoping to trade out elsewhere and when I do you can be sure this will be +130!

Still this is genuinely a longer term play for me as long as the newsflow keeps ticking along nicely.

Atb

Trek

Hi elrico,

Oh the irony, I held OPTI for a couple of years but eventually got despondent as didn’t see the rev’s coming through and then the last cash call was the last straw. I am very dubious now of companies quoting addressable market size as xbillion £’s to ostensibly inflate their worth.

The link between 4D and Opti is tenuous outside of the microbiome. I think OPTI’s science is sound, the CEO Stephen O’ is pretty good but the products are expensive and during a lock down or recession I want chocolate not a strawberry health shake that makes me feel full.

At least with 4D we know if we don’t have money we have to raise it and we have multiple shots on goal for a big prize many times our mcap from just a few customers rather than waiting on royalties from so many global partners tied in with min sales objectives. You get the gist there are distinct differences but I am glad holders there are over the 50p again as the sell off was over done.

O&W,

If you are keen to check out a biotech that will help folk check out ONC. Oncimmune.

They have an early lung test that will pick up cancer antibodies in blood and have been clinically proven to identify lung cancer 4 years in advance! The phase three trial was the biggest in the world at over 12000 pts.

They are running another trial in China, results Q1 21 and in Moscow, a really big trial for smokers. Revs will follow. Given the Scotland trials I can’t see it failing.

They have extended the platform for early prostrate, lung, liver, ovarian and breast cancer. A 4 year notice! Imagine that for the most common cancers. These are yet to be released but liver is ready.

They have big Pharma deals, they are using the platform to tailor and target drugs in advance as they can make massive savings. Roche have just extended and NHS use them amongst other.. Mrs Trek is a breast cancer survivor hence my interest there.

CEO Adam Hill has replied to my emails. Great PI engagement. MCAP £88m and just, temporarily broke out of TA resistance. Also funded and make acquisitions with distribution kicking off in US and Brazil.

Downside is hardly anyone has heard of them, BB very quiet. Check through the RNS’s and proactive interviews. I think you’ll like. I am v pleased to be invested there.

ATB

Trek

I can only assume there is profit taking. Over 50% of these are held tightly. There may be a holder below 3% taking advantage of the rise. PUR also down today and SOLG, SDZ well up so there are stock anomalies.

I have read the last update 3 x today as concerned about a potential placing. Taking advantage of gold price and that the 50% are well in profit.

This could be taken as a hint

“The Company is also considering an additional drilling programme within the Homase Trend, “

But then this is in context of the last raise and surely within the DEP.

The other point was do they want to finance the elution plant and gold room?

“this reduced initial CAPEX approach enables the Company to achieve first production within the timetable envisaged in the DEP whilst deferring certain elements of the project (including the elution plant, electrowinning and Gold Room) such that they can be funded from production cashflows.

We”ll that would be a significant and disingenuous change from the 17th July RNS. So I can’t see such a significant change in plan.

“Following completion of the recent funding and in line with the Company's reduced initial CAPEX development plan, the Board anticipates, subject to timely receipt of the requisite environmental and operational permits, that the first gold pour from the Homase South Pit will be achieved in Q4 2020.”

I don’t see any concerns about another cash raise as the cause for the SP drop. It’s something you always have to consider as companies come to aim to grow and raise money. The will very likely raise to build additional pits along the Homase trend but the first pit will produce and they should with the cash fund each pit. At least we know the first three pits are funded or mostly funded, rest from revs.

If the POG keeps rising they may be able to fund all further exploration organically!

The other cause could be a delay to permits. Maybe related to covid. I say delay as everything thus far has been approved and the government is keen, more so with covid and job impact, to get us going. It’s not even been a month yet and we were expecting news in ‘a few weeks’.

No, scratched my head and I think it’s just profit taking having a disproportionate impact. Hopefully when the permits come the volume will take out any seller.

Volume here is low and we are pretty much under the radar compared to other goldies. I mean as a measure of sentiment there’s hardly any posts here.

Atb

Trek

The MM is supposed to honour a 75k share trade. That’s the market size else they have to buy or transfer from another MM to fill their book.

But such is AIM and the illiquidity here they are basically taking orders and then filling then from whoever has stock and creaming it off the spread.

Spread is 7% atm. If you are using fill or kill, sending buys straight to MM for cash limit you may wish to consider adding a max buy price.

Don’t be surprised if the spread goes out to 15% or more here once sellers dry up as they will then want to deter trades.

Trek

Agadem

Any and every purchase has to be RNSd next working day as a ‘transaction in own shares’ RNS. So no it’s not Save buying.

Trek

Hi Swinger,

I didn’t see that one ‘issue of equity’. So it actually means that the cash burn has been higher!

They raised.....

5th Feb 2020 CLN £60k for this QPB
13th Jan 2020 £26k from options.

Last QPB, Dec 2018-Dec 2019

1st Oct 2019 £500k issues of equity due to ‘investor demand’
4th Sept £2.75m grant over 5 years to subsidise revenue. (This may help)
6th Aug £275k bookbuild and £20k ish in CLN’s. They asked for 250k got 275k due to ‘investor demand’

Big CLN 29th May 2019...£250k..

“IQ-AI is pleased to announce that the Company has issued £250,000 in nominal amount of 6% unsecured convertible loan notes 2025, convertible into 16,666,666 ordinary shares of 0.1p each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 1.5 pence per share ("CLNs"). The funds raised as a result of the issue of the CLNs will be used to provide additional working capital for product development at the Company.“

Then 11th March 2019..£268k

“Q-AI is pleased to announce that the Company has issued £268,500 in nominal amount of 6% unsecured convertible loan notes 2024, convertible into 13,425,000 ordinary shares of 0.1p each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 2 pence per share ("CLNs"). The funds raised as a result of the issue of the CLNs will be used to provide additional working capital for the Company. The funds raised enables the Company to fully execute its current business plan and shareholders should take comfort that the Company is now able to fully execute its current strategic objectives, following this, initially, non-dilutive fundraise. “

TB has been financing the co through CLN’s. Much of the early cash would have been used for Capex & R&D as well as working capital (wages, fees, travel etc)

If you look at the balance Dec 2019 it’s £865, 875. Admin costs are £859,171. So even without all the other expenses they are evens. Then factor in carry forward loss of £617k, zero tax liabilities (obviously) and allowing for same in revenues there really isn’t much cash left when you take in the spend from Dec 2019 to now.

Like I said revenues will be impacted by covid, significantly plus they still have R&D cost.

Hence my comment is ‘can they freewheel up to the deal or do they raise now on the back of the SP’.

Either way it shouldn’t matter short term as TB has a lot of skin in this. Even though he would get a decent placing price he may not have the cash (I don’t know) but he certainly wouldn’t fancy the dilution. Better to get over the line and let the deal plug the financials.

Any cash/royalty deal will be absolutely transformational for IQAI but imo it’s tight.

Hope that helps clarify.

Trek

Swinger,

They raised £275k last August, 2019. See RNS 6th Aug 2019.

My numbers are from the finals to year end Dec 2019. So based on admin costs run rate and inevitable revenue dip due to covid in H1 this year and only minimal amounts from CLN’s they are on fumes!

But like I posted it is not necessarily a problem if they are being a bit innovative with the deal.

Atb

Trek