Member Info for TrekMadone

If you look at the 5 year you can see we are at the end of the second flag formation.

As 5p held that is bullish (double bottom) and indicative of another significant spike through 20p!

That is based on a repeat pattern drawing a line up from the two recent ath’s.

Don’t you just love charts!

I expect Zak will pick this one up at some point. Mind you all his charts seem to show shares going up and yet over 2021 most of the small caps have gone down!

Make of that what you will. I still reckon 50p can be achieved here which is a £100m mcap. Not unreasonable if there is a major take up of their products or a sale. Won’t be this year though but 20p is very likely.

Usual caveats

Trek

This came from ONC recently....

“Publication of results from ImmunoINSIGHTS COVID-19 autoantibody profiling panel



Follows research collaboration with the Smidt Heart Institute at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center



Oncimmune Holdings plc (AIM: ONC.L), the leading global immunodiagnostics group, today announces the publication of a paper entitled: "Paradoxical sex-specific patterns of autoantibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection" 1 arising from the research collaboration between Oncimmune and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles ("Cedars-Sinai"). The paper focuses on the sex-specific autoimmune reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 following mildly symptomatic infection as well as the prolonged effects of COVID-19 well beyond the initial infection and recovery phase.



This collaborative study focused on gaining an understanding of how COVID-19 infection affects a person's immune system in ways that might persist over time. The research discovered that COVID-19 can trigger a broad autoantibody response that can last well beyond the initial infection and recovery phase, even among individuals who were only mildly affected or without any symptoms at all.



The research team used Oncimmune's COVID-19 autoantibody profiling panel, an advanced panel of serological measures to understand which parts of the adaptive immune system are still activated for up to six months following full apparent recovery from the initial COVID-19 infection. The results showed that a wide array of autoantibodies remain elevated, including those linked to autoimmune conditions such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.



The study, published in the Journal of Translational Medicine, suggests that COVID-19 infection leads to a persistent activation of antibodies against multiple different organ systems and tissues, many of which have been linked to classic autoimmune diseases that typically affect women more than men. In this research, however, men were more affected than women. This latest study is the first to report both the presence of elevated autoantibodies after mild or asymptomatic infection and their persistence over time.”

‘Persistent activation’!

Trek

I added a few this morning. Lots of times it was NT to buy but could sell at vol np.

Zak’s note defo has a following!

Any good grades and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a bid or a JV to grab our acreage. Would be unusual as so much un proven but the quality of the land, it’s vicinity and scarcity may dictate otherwise.

Usual caveats

Trek

Schmainda been awarded 5.9m options at 5.88p. Well deserved imo if he pulls off the trials.

These guys tend to be awarded options as part payment to keep cash costs down.

The fact that he accepted them as he still has to pay 5.88p is a pretty good sign.

Usual caveats

Trek

“2. Wishbone Gold (WSBN): 8.45p Target 20p

On a simplistic level, it may be said that as far as Wishbone Gold is concerned, the market was kinder to the company in 2020 when it was rather more blue sky that it now is that the beginning of 2022. This is nothing unusual, and should provide a decent opportunity during the next 12 months, especially if the rising inflation / rising Gold price scenario pans out as it should. With the stock around 8p in the wake of last month’s commencement of drilling at Red Setter, as opposed to 20p plus at the end of May, we are looking at a situation where the risk / reward appears attractive. We should not forget that this is the second Richard Poulden reboot in the top 20 this year, with Valereum Blockchain (VLRM) the top riser on Aquis in 2021. With WSBN Poulden made a successful switch to Gold in Australia, and Red Setter is the Jewel in the Crown. Red Setter is certainly rubbing shoulders with the stars. It lies on a 57.4 sq km wholly-owned EL45/5297 exploration licence, 13 close to both Newcrest Mining’s Telfer Gold-Copper Mine, and Newcrest and Greatland Gold’s (GGP) Havieron discovery in the Paterson Range of Western Australia. Indeed, the market cap of £15m means the company is priced at ground floor level / new listing valuation, without the prospective gains from Red Setter, White Mountain, Cottesloe, or Wishbone II, IV and VI.”

Trek

MEJ took the opportunity in the board change RNS to say what 22 held...

"We expect 2022 to be a significant year for the Company as we look to permit, finance and construct our open pit copper mine at Empire, and continue our exploration programmes on the surrounding mineralised district, as well as the historically mined sulphide deposit below the open pit. I know that Roger's ongoing advice will continue to be important.“

The finance will be key. What deal can they get. Whilst they have been clear it will be 100% debt we do need to see it land.

Two companies I hold have raised debt recently. SAVE, was equity + debt at Libor + 7.35% and TXP extended a RCF by $10m at 7.85% fixed. The first is Africa and later in Trinidad and Tobago.

As we are wholly in USA then there should be a geo discount. But it’s mining and not O&G. It would be some achievement to get below 7.5% fixed. With rates rising and costs escalating a fixed interest rate without any warrants would be fantastic news.

I guess we’ll soon see. But that uncertainty once out the way could be a catalyst for a serious rerate!

Usual caveats

Trek

I will have my last infantile say on Niger. I accept delays re covid and POO but it didn’t stop the wheels of industry in its entirety...

From CPR 1st May 2020...

“In terms of our plans for delivering the development we are happy to confirm that these continue to progress and that as a Company we are now intending to commence installation of an Early Production System on R3 East within the next twelve months, market conditions and financing permitting."

Why it could have arrested the SP malaise...

“· 2C case economic break-even oil price estimated at US$26/bbl (assuming 10% IRR), with R3 East development CAPEX to first oil estimated at US$6.8m. Maximum estimated cash outflow of US$57.7m for full field development.”

That’s a decent ROI and as said oil could possibly have been trucked. For sure there is always a bigger picture but that possibly could have included Niger...

“Amdigh-1 well test to be performed in December 2018;

· Confirmation of Early Production Scheme ("EPS") plans anticipated to develop a recoverable resource base of 52 mmbbls, with a first phase expected to see production of c.1kbd from Q1 2019 and a second phase development planned to see production ramp up to c.5kbd during 2019;”

It’s all water under the bridge but one can’t be despondent at the low SP in a market where ‘cash’ and delivery seems to be king.

Having been invested and traded here since early 2018, it’s my biggest holding after TXP. I must be mad I guess but I think I have been patient having alway held a position here and isn’t Niger the ‘low hanging fruit’ AK is on about.

Anyways happy NY to all and thanks Zen for taking the time to share the numbers with us mortals. Your posts are genuinely appreciated. Thank you.

Usual caveats

Trek

Macro boost!

“https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/rystad-2021-may-be-worst-year-since-1946-for-oil-gas-discoveries

Reflecting reduced investment in E&P in the COVID-19 era, the global energy industry is on track to record its worst year for new oil and gas discoveries since 1946, according to the analysts at Rystad Energy.

“Although some of the highly ranked prospects are scheduled to be drilled before the end of the year, even a substantial discovery may not be able to contribute towards 2021 discovered volumes as these wells may not be completed in this calendar year. Therefore, the cumulative discovered volume for 2021 is on course to be its lowest in decades,” says Palzor Shenga, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

No big discoveries have been announced yet in December, and over the course of the year through November, only 4.7 billion boe worth of newly discovered volumes have been reported worldwide. This puts the industry on track to report less than half of last year's total, when - despite the pandemic and a sharp drop in oil prices - oil and gas firms announced 12.5 billion boe worth of new discoveries.

The monthly average for the year has been low, at about 425 million boe. November was particularly quiet, with just 220 million boe announced, and December has been nearly silent so far. Offshore finds have been the largest source in recent months: Lukoil discovered 75 million boe of oil and gas off Mexico; Thailand's PTTEP and Malaysia's Petronas discovered a promising gas reservoir in shallow water off Baram Province, Malaysia; and Norway continues to yield a steady flow of smaller offshore finds with tieback development potential.

Rystad chalked up the low overall results to an absence of big discoveries. Large individual finds typically make up an outsize portion of the annual total. Worldwide, just 900 giant oil and gas fields account for 40 percent of all petroleum ever discovered, and each new giant adds 500 million boe or more to the annual total.

According to Rystad, the global oil and gas industry reacted to the pandemic-induced price crash of 2020 by cutting upstream spending by more than a quarter. That translated to an investment reduction of $145 billion in 2020 and a projected reduction of $140 billion in 2021, and the firm predicts that upstream investments will remain well below previous levels for years to come. For 2022, a healthy share of producers' capex budget increases may simply go to covering the effects of inflation, not drilling extra wells, according to S&P.”

Posted by Gettingby on SAVE.

Trek

Hi Agadem,

The primary bid/retail vehicle involvement comments you alluded to is accurate. I have an account with PrimaryBid and they are upgrading.

It’s imo a clear message from AK along with the investor call that SAVE are a 24/7 business. Agnostic of SP machinations. Value will always out. And if value outs AK has earnt his junior finance loan terms. Plus not mentioned so far. No change to the employee incentive scheme. How many Co’s cop out on that!

My hope is that all investors on this BB have now been able to get into or near to profit.

But that imo is the ‘easy yards’ out the way. There were ‘more sellers than buyers’. We now need new investors. AK has set the scene but this is an extremely harsh market. NAV discount is actually irrelevant! Look at all the trusts that trade at +10% discounts and not in Africa! FCF and asset base growth will gradually increase the SP. Oh and who prophesied the renewables additions over 6 months ago. Well it was an obvious prediction! Lol!

Anyways the key to the SP moving forward from here is as always new $ news. Like customers, income, cash predictions. I think we will see more of that soon.

The disappointment for me is that after all this time and waxing lyrical about 5 out of 5 in Niger they really haven’t delivered on that front.

Get those barrels to market and the SP will follow!

Usual caveats

Trek

Lol LO,

“I think it's Trek trying to get a cheaper entry point on his trade ;), got no balls opening another account just to post eh?”

Give me some credit. I ‘only’ sold a mill. Been trading this one for over a year now and not once run it down.

Parked my money in Hemo at 1.6 average. No need to plug Hemo or knock ECR where I still have a position and rate the prospects. Also bought a small amount of LEX. Been on my radar that one since the IPO but never had free cash. Only 75k shares.

Been a good year 21 even after some tough challenges in the mining sector. My biotechs have more than made up for the mining sector losses. SNG, AVCT, GDR & ONC have done well only coz I was in early before the herd (no herd on ONC though) and took profits and recycled some on the dips.

Most posting on these small cap BB’s are looking for the illusive 10 bagger. History shows it’s the small mcap shares that either find something worth a lot like, gold, copper, oil etc or discover something that we need. Like a new drug, IT a gadget etc...

ECR was one of my bets. I tend to be in early and usually sell only to see the stock take off! That’s why I now keep a foot in the door to add to or rebuild from and work on my average as opposed to just buy and hold which I have only done now for TXP from the teens.

I also think each year has a market theme. This year was crypto/blockchain, last year was really covid stocks, the year before from memory was better for resource stocks, then before FAANGS, then financials, banking bounce. You get the gist. There seems to be a theme each year, good or bad.

If one can identify that in advance like the dot com bubble. There is a great opportunity to be in early and out. Like I managed to do with many of my covid plays.

Imo ‘22 will be the year of AI. It just seems to be coming up in the news especially as the US is being significantly outspent by China on AI. Of course AI is in many sectors from industrials to defence to biotech but the principles are the same.

Drilling down further, I am picking AI biotech stocks for this year’s theme. I have been investing in IQAI now for over a year. Like I say I tend to be early! But with a £10m mcap and about to start phase 1 trials I have averaged down there significantly especially after the recent manoeuvres by the CEO to increase his and his family’s holdings without breaching takeover thresholds, by the skin of his teeth!

So IQAI is my tip for 22. I hold 20 stocks in my PF but that is the one where I have backed as the illusive 10 bagger.

You only need one to make a difference. I still hold TXP from 14p ish and I had ARB from 4.3p and sold the last at 1.60! It can be done!

Now I view ECR as in that same category in terms of potential, like WSBN, LEX, LND etc to name a few but if I only had one choice it would be IQAI at the current SP.

So there you go LO. Now think our new poster is still me?

Usual caveats

Trek

I was kinda pleased to see the 10% drop recently on an indicative difference of 2m shares favouring the sell side. That was a big drop for such a small balance. We have 980m shares in issue. That’s actually not too bad. Just look at the mining sector for comparisons!

Point is you can’t have it both ways with the SP moving down as well as up on low vols. Today is a vindication. Up 10% so far on sod all volume!

So when we get transformational news. The trading pattern is signalling that we could see those wild climbs again. News is not far off!

For those that follow the sector ONC’s RNS today which further validates its immunoINSIGHTS platform may be of interest. The work was sponsored by UK plc but the alignment is with Hemo’s antibodies that they have identified which can help covid suffers and from other viral pathogens.

There seems to be a lot of symbiosis in this sector. If only one could get these huge brains in the same room!

Usual caveats

Trek

Email ir@savannah-energy.com

they will send you the details

I just had the login from Violet. It starts 0930 today....

Then we can all enjoy discussing investing in SAVE in the kitchen at a New Years party!

I never have problems with social distancing!

Lol!

Trek

Seems to have settled a little now with buy sell pretty tight spread around 23.8p

I was going to sell a few today as needed cash but no way at this price!

It’s an upside downside equation. Floor at 19p, upside short term feels like 40p.

SP down understandably on early sells but those sells are being bought or taken on the MM’s book.

Now is the time to buy imo not sell unless you need cash. I will now be selling elsewhere!

Usual caveats

Trek

Wow! That’s an amazing validation by ONC and the first of its kind.

To translate. Basically if you are a Pharma developing specific therapeutics for ‘long covid’ then you would do well to go to ONC to use their immunoINSIGHTS platform to get a predictive autoimmune response.

The advance prediction of efficacy and safety could save you a shed load of money, time and more importantly improve the patient chance of success.

As for the SP. Expect a little RNS spike then pull back again.

The market doesn’t understand ONC! They will though when the cash comes in.

That’s the joy of investing. Getting in early! Being patient, buying the dips when you find a quality company.

Usual caveats

Trek

Just awesome software! I mean it’s pretty obvious what a physician would want to use!

And I love the logo!

1 trade. Sorry to disappoint but single trades are usually divi scrips or MM scheme’s. As we don’t pay a divi, yet, lol! It’ll be a scheme. These are registered with the LSE to create liquidity and are Mifid2 compliant.

It’s not just one trades but frequent single/low volume trades or ALGO trading to range or move a SP and generate liquidity. I often see 4 or 5 one trades a day on some stocks. Even FTSE250 stocks like GLO which is pretty illiquid the market makers move small volumes to get some interest.

Here are some links...

Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

MiFID2 MM agmt tab...

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/20200401%20MIT%20&%20TE%20Parameters%20version%207.2.xls

Hope that helps.

Usual caveats,

Trek

Don’t worry there is no hope for us!

“Currently the Top 10 in descending order are:

#acp , #AVCT , #DDDD , #KIST , #BOO , #TGR, #EML , #sng , #SAVE #AGL”

“If the information is sorted from highest to lowest, it is said to be in descending order. For example 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 are arranged in descending order. In other words, if the numbers are arranged from the largest to the smallest number, it is said to be in descending order.”

https://byjus.com/maths/descending-order/

So Paul Hill means descending order of 1 to 10

Obviously too many anoraks on this BB!

Lol!

Trek

I have taken a ‘small’ position here. Lex has been on my watchlist since the JKL JORC. I was also impressed with the grades they have been consistently hitting esp with the latest drill.

The capital structure with milestone payments across 4 projects actually reduces risk. They could drop one or more and focus on the others. It also helps with the geo risk across different acreage.

Wether they go on to produce, I don’t know but I think with the SP now just off the IPO price it’s a pretty good entry. You can trade well within the apparent spread my buy is reported as a sell.

There is a pretty good shareholder base. I noted from the nominees that JIM had 55%. That’s the owner of X-O which I thought was unusual as normally interactive investor and Hargreaves lansdown feature higher. Makes me think there are some large X-O holders.

I have had a look through the financing and as always these companies need to regularly come to market. That’s why they list!

Latest cash declared in Sept for half year was “· Net cash position at the Period end of US$2.1m (31 December 2020: US$2.9m)”

The BoD have really driven VFM with the cash. With results due soon I expect the SP to tick up. Obviously else I wouldn’t have bought but I am expecting a raise during Q1 and the usual volatility. No reason why a raise on the back of good results couldn’t be much higher than the IPO. With the major holders they have I don’t see getting cash being a problem.

The TMS article will also draw others here. With a £7m mcap it doesn’t take much to move it to £10-15m range. Then if one wishes one can slice and let the rest ride. From here I don’t see much downside but after 21 with resource stocks . Who knows!

Usual caveats

HNY

Trek

Should get a D for ‘disclosure’ now on the ESG scale. No reason why we can’t move towards ‘B’ same as Shell. You can see the awards on the google finance page. For compliance you eventually get a little leaf icon!

This is important as it makes companies ‘more investable’ for some institutions....

“Points allocation
Responding companies will be assessed across four consecutive levels which represent the steps a company moves through as it progresses towards environmental stewardship. The levels are:
1) Disclosure;
2) Awareness;
3) Management;
4) Leadership.
At the end of scoring, the number of points a company has been awarded at Disclosure and Awareness level is divided by the maximum number that could have been awarded. The fraction is then converted to a percentage by multiplying by 100 and rounded to the nearest whole number. For Management and Leadership levels, the number of points achieved per scoring category are used to calculate the final score, according to the scoring category weighting (see section ‘Scoring categories and weightings’).”

https://cdn.cdp.net/cdp-production/cms/guidance_docs/pdfs/000/000/233/original/Scoring-Introduction.pdf?1639144388

Usual caveats

And a HNY!

Trek

SNG no 3.

https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalpmh/status/1474689051944968195

I expect we’ll see a few others soon.

Trek

Thanks for posting max. Those fast facts are mind blowing when you run it beside IQAI’s £10m mcap....

“Fast Facts: 1 billion MRI scans worldwide. 40% use gadolinium (40 million administrations worldwide). 50 tons of gad administered annually. >$1B worldwide annual market.”

The new year best performing stocks tend to be those that have a low mcap and a chance at a high total addressable market (TAM) like in the biotech space where they make a landmark discovery and sell or are a low mcap and find a load of natural resource like oil, gold, gas etc.

There are also tech plays, similar principle to biotechs, they discovery a technology that we need and flog it.

Obviously one has to check the BoD, financing, geographical risk, bla bla but the principles are the same.

For a 10m mcap and it’s current customer base and about to start a phase 1 trial which could possibly get EUA at P2 given the unmet need and current safety. IQAI could be a candidate for a top share in 22.

I bought in here a little to early. Timing isn’t easy but even though I am slightly underwater I have stuck with this and am quietly, well very optimistic for a stellar year!

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek