Member Info for TrekMadone

The ‘one man show’ and succession was my webinar question.

From memory AK said they don’t tend to employ for promotion rather best person for role. Which absolutely makes sense but imo at Bod level there should be others as able as AK or at least the potential.

Trek

Agree the market doesn’t get it. If there was an issue with debt then surely the company would include the third option. Pay down debt. They haven’t…

“ The company said the sale of the subsidiary–which it holds a 71.4% stake in–represents the first step in unlocking value for shareholders and closing the gap between its share price and the intrinsic value of its assets. It will decide whether to reinvest the proceeds into new growth opportunities or return capital to shareholders when the transaction closes.”

https://www.bollyinside.com/news/contourglobal-sells-hydroelectric-business-in-brazil-for-318-million

They are clearly selling because it’s ‘a good shareholder deal’ and it mitigates EM currency risks. With the Fed raising rates EM’s will have to follow to maintain the risk premium. Simple as.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Slowroll,

I only have a small position there now. I will be buying after they place. They need imo around 12.5m. I posted the data a while back.

The shallow horizons RNS was a bit rampy. If you are in around 10’s sit tight. I expect to place again soon at ten. That gives the insti’s another chance to flip.

They need to drill the Karoo again. Rest is a sideshow imo.

Sky is still the limit though. Look at DME.cve and ZAC.JSE for a read across.

Note though that the demand for He has been knocked by the pandemic.

Also be aware COPL and TXP both offer significant upsides as a resource play and more favourable risk reward as USA and T&T or even WSBN, Oz for that matter or even here!

The point is. Spread your risks. You only need one winner.

Usual caveats

Trek

Just had a proper read. So reduces non USD/EURO currency exposure to 10%...

“Non EUR or USD adjusted EBITDA currency exposure for the Group will decrease from 14% to 10%”. Looks like wind sale to follow.

Interesting that one of the motives was the disconnect between NAV according to private valuation and what the market currently values GLO for. ‘Cheap!’

This seems to be a challenge for many listed companies. They are based on buy sell pressure rather than what the intrinsic value is. However, in the case of GLO we have a +6.5% yield paid quarterly which I am pretty confident puts a floor under the SP.

The private valuation was about 250p and market valuation is now 188p. That has hardly shifted even after share buy backs, yoy inflation beating divi increases and now some asset sales!

This is looking more and more like a safe boring solid income play if you can tolerate the 20p trading range.

Usual caveats

Trek

Fantastic news! Only glanced at RNS but the axiom is the removal of fx risk to the real following impending fed rate rises. Perfect timing! Now we just have USD and EUR.

Company will ‘determine’ how to spend. I would rather they reinvested as they would, hopefully, get a better long term ROI should the right opportunity manifest than a special divi.

Usual caveats

Trek

Box 2 reason for notification has been crossed ‘x’ as…….

“ An event changing the breakdown of voting rights”

Trek

7th Oct RNS....

“Subscribers in the Placing have been issued with warrants to subscribe for a further 12,400,000 Ordinary Shares at a price of 7.5p per share, exercisable for 3 months.”

And

“Application will be made for the Placing Shares to be admitted to the Standard List segment of the Official List and to trading on the main market of the London Stock Exchange ("Admission"). It is expected that Admission will become effective and that dealings in the Placing Shares will commence at 8.00am on or around 14 October 2021.”

So Friday expired unless bought.

We should at least get a TVR update this week.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi O&W,

Yes it is the deb5 holding this back as per my earlier post. You can see a breakdown in the table in the 6th Aug RNS...

“4.13. Borrowings

Certain power plants have financed their electric power generating projects by entering into external financing arrangements which require the pledging of collateral and may include financial covenants as described below. The financing arrangements are generally non-recourse (subject to certain guarantees) and the legal obligation for repayment is limited to the borrowing entity.

The Group's principal borrowings with a nominal outstanding amount of $4,580.9 million in total as of June 30, 2021 (December 31, 2020: $4,871.8 million) primarily relate to the following:...

Table follows which won’t past....

Approx $2bn of $4.5bn is either Libor, Euribor, TJLP or US-LIBOR tied + a fixed %.

Debt reduced by $300m. Some expire Unless extended...

“(2) On February 18, 2021, the Group acquired a Thermal portfolio in the United States of America and Trinidad and Tobago representing a total of 1,502 MW. The group entered into a term loan facility agreement in December 2020, and the loan was issued in February 2021 with an outstanding nominal amount of $175.0 million, bearing incremental fixed 2.5% to 4.5% rate, maturing in December 2021 (with option to extend to June 2022). The legal entity Lea Power acquired as per this transaction issued 6.595% Senior Secured Notes under an indenture dated July 24, 2007 which are due to mature June 2033. The remaining nominal amount is $187.5 million as of June 30, 2021.”

But imo even with 4x25bp rate hikes debt is well serviceable due to anticipated prorata increase in energy costs.

Usual caveats

Trek

Re the PE….

SP/EPS 190p/4.4p (0.06USD) = 43. Or adjusted Pe (after fx) = 190p/2.9p(0.04USD)=65.5

Caveats the first includes capital swap to pay for derivatives of $37m. The second doesn’t include fx gains, yet.

This is the problem with pe. Don’t assume low is good. It could be a reflection of a declining business model or high is bad. It could be debt repayments, capex assignments etc. you have to look beneath the numbers.

The golden indicator re cash is increasing FCF for an INCREASING divi after all else is paid for…..

This will do me!

“ Shareholder returns

? Second quarter dividend of $29.30m or 4.465 cents per share, to be paid on 10 September 2021

? Including today's announced dividend, a total of $411m has been returned to shareholders since listing via dividends and share buybacks

? The Directors continue to expect to increase the dividend annually by 10% ”

This has been imo overlooked by the market where analysts just take headlines.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Sam,

That is the problem with many publications. They are often run by bots and not updated accordingly. Morningstar is notorious for having out of date major shareholding’s.

Divi cover is (was) 1.9x. It likely same or better now based on increased revenues for Spain and cost improvements in Brazil.

Have a look at the company presentation and interims 6th Aug...

“Second quarter dividend of 4.465 cents per share, equivalent to 3.203 pence per share[3], to be paid on 10 September 2021, reflecting our commitment to a 10% year-on-year growing dividend supported by our strong and visible cash flows. Dividend cover remains strong at 1.9x[4]”

[4] Dividend cover of 1.9x, defined as LTM Parent Company Free Cash Flow divided by declared dividend.

Also some quite correctly mentioned the debt which is likely putting a ceiling on this.
Is gearing is serviceable that is the question. The other is corporate debt structure. We fortunately have a mix of CLN’s and fixed rate bonds. Some are LIBOR or Eurobond + so vulnerable to rate increases but the majority is fixed. Also some was being paid down and some expired in Dec 21.

Worth not the debt structure is spread with plants having an independent financing structure that protects the other group assets. Borrowings $458m down from $487m during period.

As for the pe I think we will get a better view in March but I have seen ranges of 345 - 150. I can’t get my head around how this would be trading at anything like 200 x earnings. Doesn’t make sense.

Usual caveats

Trek

“ In the US, IB Neuro is the only MR perfusion platform used in multi-center clinical trials.“

Still no competition. Still only £12m

Bonkers! Imo.

Trek

Holdings summary....

Pure Ice Investments...

From 14.29% on 3rd Feb 21 to 20.16% on 5th November 21.

Notes. Increased after half year, drilling, ops updates and maiden JORC
View. Aware of financial situation and still added.

Orasa (a.k.a Doris) Chiaratanasen...

13.91% 5th Jan 21 to 15.06% 10th Feb 21

Notes. Acquisitions
View. Positive post IPO & not sold at peak SP.

Mark Mitchell Greenwood

From 12.71% to 13.00% on 18th Dec 20

Notes. Acquisition
View: SP was 2.75p after IPO Dec 20. But had a closing high of 5.88p and intraday hi +6p in May 21.

All major holders could have sold at least some and yet some have added

SP seems to have floored at 2.5p intraday. But with spread impossible to buy at that price.

With news due SP moving back up on extremely low volumes. Not much liquidity. Will need another decent spike to at least 6p as before to tempt traders to sell. Long term. Significant holders seem to be happy to wait for bigger profits.

Usual Caveats

Trek

Zzzzzzzz...... zzzzzzzzz..... zzzzzzzzz......

Trek

Chill buy/sell is an indication. That’s why the LSE main site trades page don’t use it.

Remember there is a 15min delay with the algorithm here. So apart from spread even on high volume buys can look like sells if SP is rising or sells look like buys if SP is falling die to 15min lag.

Remember also it’s the aggressors trade that is published. Not the other side of the trade.

For a SP trajectory better off using chart candles over time.

Usual caveats

Trek

Assays soon.

Tight liquidity here. The two back to back 25k’s are mine. Then the next 50k as that was only available after the 130k sell. I had to split a 100k buy down to 3 trades!

Awful buy side liquidity atm. Looks like the MM’s are matching trade for trade and dont have much of a pool of stock.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this jump 25% soon as the MM probably has a long they can cash in!

As soon as this moves punters will arrive. The postcode is awesome and funded from IPO!

Usual caveats

Trek

Open up an account with the London Stock Exchange and set up your free email alerts. It’s easy to do. It’s worth having two sources of data.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/my-account?tab=tools

Trek

Perhaps I should have a chat with Colin he lives literally just up road from me in Tavistock.

Trek

Sam,

The divi is 6.75% at this price.

The fall today is in line with its current trading range, 180-210. It’s performance is inline with other independent power producers since 1st Jan.

You can see the peer comparison here...

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CONTOURGLOBAL-PLC-38649308/company/

You will also note the shareholder distribution. GLO only has a 20% free float. Excluding shares in treasury.

Following the last buy back of 16m shares that leaves them below the 25% market threshold. However, as part of the ‘Primary Markets Effectiveness Review’ that is set to change to 10%. The FCA are transitioning it atm.

https://www.fca.org.uk/publications/policy-statements/ps21-22-primary-market-effectiveness-review-feedback-and-final-changes-listing-rules.

It will also impact mcap thresholds for full listings. £700k becomes £50m is my interpretation at a glance, there are other changes.

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/consultation/cp21-21.pdf

But for GLO it will open the door again for another buy back.

Brandt said that the best thing GLO could do with their cash was to buy their own shares. Or words to that effect.

Whilst an investment here is not likely to show huge capital gains (but you never know) it is a solid income play. Using some basic TA will show you the support levels and any buyers adding sub 190 are imo in bargain territory!

It’s not unexpected to see a dip now and the SP pick up again ahead of the results and divi announcement on Mar 18.

It’s amazing the intel one can get for free now on the internet to empower folk to make their own investment choices!

Usual caveats

Trek

Feb 22 start then. Not long for the rerate.

Usual caveats

Trek

You have to remember that this is as much like partners such as Lilly and Selexis picking Hemo as well.

With so man6 clinical trials Selexis are involved in the can afford to be selective to keep up their commercialisation rate.

Not that much on their website though to be fair. 140 trials.

https://www.selexis.com/capabilities

Usual caveats

Trek