Member Info for tradeemup

Tullow is weathering a major storm at present however it has strong assets and a number of catalysts that will see the SP increase.

1 - Uganda deal needs to go through preserving cash and Capex commitments in an unstable geography.
2 - the road back to 90k BOPD needs to be cleared and signposted by new CEO
3 - The exploration assets are highly prospective. Should the Goliathberg well be successful in Suriname then it will be well received. Just look at Apache share price rise and the amazing deal struck with Total for a 50% farm in.
3 - Orinduik In Guyana and the poor communication of. Major discovery prior to analysis of the oil deemed heavy and high sulphur. These were all in the tertiary and the Cretaceous prospects are huge 700 MMB targets. One strike and its game on to £1.

The balancing act between Capex against backdrop of debt will be key and some fortune of course when you a dealing with exploration. It’s definitely not implausible that TLW SP could be £1 within 12 months. EG oil returns to $55-60 range and Tullow guidance is revised to 90k BOPD and Guyana and Suriname assets deliver a commercial discovery. All to play for but not without risk

Makingdough. It’s frustrating not to see the update reflected in the share price but in this instance their is no hidden news and the BOD are playing with a straight bat. If as I suspect the resource size is in the 200-300 BCF range then the current price offers an amazing entry for those looking to join the party. I’ve seen so many small oilers make Significant discoveries that lack the infrastructure For a simple investment decision. TXP haven’t made an offshore discovery or an onshore discovery that requires complex FID and review of CAPEX, they will be ok the radar of some large majors with domestic demand and an enviable timeline to production. Every box here is ticked and I truly expect £1 per share by March 2021

Makingdough. What Are you talking about? Have you seen the daily volume here and the shareholding north have to clear? TBH the issue is everybody needing an immediate update every 5 minutes. The gas is there, the flow rates are exceptional etc and we spud chinook Inside 30 days. Does everyone think his is a get rich quick scheme. All in good time and £1 by this time next year will do me!

Shell guy this was asked at the recent Q&A webinar. The answer is yes we will encounter the same productive zones however Cascadura deep will also target zone below which means it counts as an exploration well and satisfies our 4 well exp well commitment. Heavily derisked well with upside in deeper structure.

Couldn’t help adding to my holding sub 50p. Bring on Chinook!

The resource at Cascadura has just been confirmed as world class with monster flow rates. Once north have unloaded and market volatility settles this will rerate. This is no longer a typical AIM Sell on news stock IMO and if we have anywhere near a 2-300BCF discovery which I now believe is likely we are hugely undervalued.

It’s huge Tidd as the data clearly shows that optimised production from the structure Requires further wells and will be way above 40MMCF once a second well is drilled. Amazing result

Main takeaways here are the confirmation of ‘unbounded’ reservoir and an unreal absolute open hole flow rate estimated at 390MMcfd. Does this mean that a second Successful well In the structure allows TXP to ramp up to 80-90 MMCF per day. This may be why PB stated that the most important news would be confirmation of the AOF for now rather than resource size. With the drawdown data and AOF in this crazy range and GLJ conservative nature I would think that a second well to drain the pool also equates to a significant production upgrade!

Was nursing a £42k loss 3 months ago. The upside in Guyana and Suriname will come into play in 2021 Tullow exit in Uganda and Kenya will put debt concerns to bed. Really sorry to hear that MrD didn’t stick it out as catalysts to £1 are definitely there. This is a hold and once 40p is broken I expect the institutions that issue 30-40p revised broker notes to pile in. The transfer of wealth well and truly underway.

Sounds like the audio and link were choppy for most. Let’s see what we glean from it being re posted online.

I think it is highly likely it will be cut. 500BCF is $1.5bn gas revenues at $3 MCF! Time will tell and I’d be happy with half that figure. Onto Chinook for a potential life changing drill !

Dana are you sure you heard 500BCF? It sounds like you were attempting to have this confirmed by others. If it’s anywhere above 250BCF I’ll be gobsmacked.

TXP need to end ties with value the markets. Useless tech and once you log in with an email their is no option to log back on or use the meeting ID provided. Instead I keep getting an error message about exceeding sessions. It’s just not fit for purpose. I will be emailing PB tomorrow.

https://vtm.clickmeeting.com/txp?&skipPlatformChoice=1

https://vtm.clickmeeting.com/txp.

PB swift decision to store oil for sales at later date looks to have paid off big time. Everything here is looking set to blow into the 60s once chinook spuds.

Apologies. Starts around 34 minutes.

Appears PB presentation is up on YouTube.

//youtu.be/RWNHn4T93BY

PB son from around 24 minutes.

From memory the Coho well was assigned 2P reserves of 20 BCF. I think In reality it’s likely to be a lot closer to 35-40 BCF once we have production data over 6 months. Based on the flow rates it’s still a cracking well which should deliver $9.5 to $10.5m per annum for 10-12 years. Got to love that Gas!

Jayque / I hope your right. However not a chance that GLJ will put a conservative minimum size on the resource without long term production data of anything in excess of 200-250BCF - and even that is hopeful. That’s not to say that 600BCF and say 300BCF recoverable isn’t realistic but without further production data the GLJ team will be cautious. Remember independent reserve reports are often used as collateral in RBL Facilities etc. They are overly weighted to the downside in nature