Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
We have waited this long gents? Once we are producing gas we have a clear path and most of the infrastructure in place to increase to 200MMCF and 5000 BOPD. I’ve recalibrated here and think this is a clear hold until august/September 2024.
The two drills a CASC C are the real eureka moment.
It’s taken this long to get to first gas with missed timelines and bumps in the road along the way. It will be interesting to see market sentiment once we are producing to guidance and casc c spuds. Given the capacity (200MMCF + 5000bopd) and chances of success surely the market will start to price in the asset properly. This really is amazing value down here given the reserves, jurisdiction, local gas deficit and FCF profile.
I’m not adding any more shares but for newbies now is a perfect window to buy.
It will be interesting to see how other manufacturers react to this news Whilst Tudor also sit within roles the likes of omega, Breitling etc etc might not want an AD relationship direct with Rolex owned operation. Will Rolex eventually just stock their own brands ? This move fascinates me as it’s clear that rolex demand outstrips supply. Why would they not go full e-commerce dtc too? I can’t see it and therefore feel the drop is overdone but interesting times.
I also noted Coho sales at a price of $2.11 per scuff in the interim update. Has PB been clear on Cascadura pricing yet and whether their is a committed price for say 100MMCF after which they can negotiate further on price? This is another bugbear of mine. If it’s fixed all you can eat they need to lift the veil on pricing!
To be honest trek I just want to hear they are full throttle on CASC C site , back to back material cash accretive drills aiming to max out 200MCF and 5000 condensate bopd. We can high grade and pontificate in the background on new targets until the cash cow is at full throttle. Buckle up!
This will put any prospect of further dilution EVER ato bed! I hope PB is clear on this post first gas sales to the market! He really has left a lot to desire in his comms, all IMO of course.
Hey John. I’ve spent the last few days really reviewing the reserves and production potential of the existing facility (post expansion for additional wells). Cascadura really is a very large discovery and with additional drilling it’s very likely the reserves actually increase. At the end of the day the free cash flow from these operations is transformational. Coho has been disappointing but hearing they plan to max out capacity (24MMCF) is encouraging.
If and when the first 2 connected wells start producing at guidance this will all be forgotten. Then we move to a back to back 2 well campaign to fill up the 200MMCF facility capacity. That’s a lot of gas! Few on AIM ever get this type of development to those rates. The jury’s out but I still believe it will happen
I’m wondering if anyone could give me a breakdown of anticipated production once casca is up to max rates.
Are we anticipating 60MCF per day and 1300 barrels of liquids per day? The last presentation suggested circa 9000Boe/d. Have I got the breakdown between gas and liquids roughly right?
Cheers in advance.
Completely agree alligator. I have been reducing my holding over the last fortnight as I have lost faith in PB. I still have a sizeable holding but if Cascadura flow rates are not as guided I will cut my position immediately. TBH the messaging around chinook and the coho delays were all clear signs for me.
Hey Johnxx - as anticipated last week Royston didn’t go out way. However if Cascadura produces as guided I think we will see a steady rerate and then lots of interest as de elopement drilling commences. PB achas however really not covered himself in glory. The chinook and Royston hyperbole from him has been James parsons-esque (sound energy).
Ultimately if Cascadura can produce at the volumes quoted by PB post sign off (this will need to be evidenced across two quarters minimum IMO) then we will all be in the money. It is rather frustrating but hopefully it will be worth the wait.
We shall see dunderhead. Let’s hope PB’s wall of cash analogies are not remembered in the the James parsons (sound energy) Ilk. I’m not as confident as I used to be following delays, albeit COVID and government red tape haven’t helped. The companies verbal guidance via PB at this point is meaningless to me. But I’ll wait for the next few RNSs.