Member Info for tradeemup

Fair and balanced post ID78. This is now the floor price give or take 10%. We will now ramp volumes and we move to CASC C site. The realisation of value may take longer than we had hoped but their is no doubt the market can’t ignore the FCF and project plan to ramp to 200MMCF +5000 BOPD.

Get with the programme

Net to TXP. 8000 BoE + circa 1000 barrel liquids.

Onto CASC C PAD!

Current mcap £200M. Given no debt and current cash position somewhat protected by local sales I can’t see it breaking 70-72 area. This is definitely a buying opp on a risk vs reward basis. Saudi cuts pushing oil above $90, will the stand off continue. Unlikely given the $$$ being lost on a daily basis. AIMHO DYOR etcetc.

Honestly nobody understand the frustration more than me. But I’m mostly upset by PB’s absolutely shocking ramping post chinook and now it seems Royston. However I’d rather they increase volumes to maximum guidance before updating the market. It really appears many are desperate to sell on news here! IMO that would be very shortsighted because the next CASC C pad drills will happen with zero threat of dilution and ramp is to 200MMCF.

Stable production over a quarter see this back at 50p+. You o ou have to understand the capex on Ankatara to see the clear disconnect in the market cap. I expect existing shareholders are block buying sub 45p..:::

The market had priced in Armageddon, covenant breaches , potential dry docking of tankers etc. Negative Sentiment here will reverse quickly with montará producing and updates on Akatara milestones. This will continue to trend up in coming weeks/months

Definitely likely to be hit once Malaysia infill wells progress. TBH this is way too cheap right now.

TBH corpse ‘technical issues’ dosent cover the unfolding events at Royston. PB has spent the best part of two years making excuses for Royston after pronouncing the discovery was as good as it gets and initial flow rates of 500-1000 BOPD. In addition he still presents Royston a a potential world class asset in his presentations, teasing a development plan that could run for years! He is full of BS

As predicted dunderhead Royston was a duster. Let’s hope Paul’s creative truths didn’t stretch to cas production profile. Anything less than circa 9000boe/d and I’ll definitely consider him the new James parsons. I’ll also be rather vocal at the next U.K. a event!

$50m placing in June 2023 at 45p. Montará issues crushed the share price but once back online have to assume 45p is the target here.

We have waited this long gents? Once we are producing gas we have a clear path and most of the infrastructure in place to increase to 200MMCF and 5000 BOPD. I’ve recalibrated here and think this is a clear hold until august/September 2024.

The two drills a CASC C are the real eureka moment.

It’s taken this long to get to first gas with missed timelines and bumps in the road along the way. It will be interesting to see market sentiment once we are producing to guidance and casc c spuds. Given the capacity (200MMCF + 5000bopd) and chances of success surely the market will start to price in the asset properly. This really is amazing value down here given the reserves, jurisdiction, local gas deficit and FCF profile.

I’m not adding any more shares but for newbies now is a perfect window to buy.

It will be interesting to see how other manufacturers react to this news Whilst Tudor also sit within roles the likes of omega, Breitling etc etc might not want an AD relationship direct with Rolex owned operation. Will Rolex eventually just stock their own brands ? This move fascinates me as it’s clear that rolex demand outstrips supply. Why would they not go full e-commerce dtc too? I can’t see it and therefore feel the drop is overdone but interesting times.

Thanks both. Nice to know. Enjoy the long weekend!

I also noted Coho sales at a price of $2.11 per scuff in the interim update. Has PB been clear on Cascadura pricing yet and whether their is a committed price for say 100MMCF after which they can negotiate further on price? This is another bugbear of mine. If it’s fixed all you can eat they need to lift the veil on pricing!

To be honest trek I just want to hear they are full throttle on CASC C site , back to back material cash accretive drills aiming to max out 200MCF and 5000 condensate bopd. We can high grade and pontificate in the background on new targets until the cash cow is at full throttle. Buckle up!

This will put any prospect of further dilution EVER ato bed! I hope PB is clear on this post first gas sales to the market! He really has left a lot to desire in his comms, all IMO of course.

Hey John. I’ve spent the last few days really reviewing the reserves and production potential of the existing facility (post expansion for additional wells). Cascadura really is a very large discovery and with additional drilling it’s very likely the reserves actually increase. At the end of the day the free cash flow from these operations is transformational. Coho has been disappointing but hearing they plan to max out capacity (24MMCF) is encouraging.

If and when the first 2 connected wells start producing at guidance this will all be forgotten. Then we move to a back to back 2 well campaign to fill up the 200MMCF facility capacity. That’s a lot of gas! Few on AIM ever get this type of development to those rates. The jury’s out but I still believe it will happen

Thanks KG. Let’s hope they can meet guidance. That’s some serious cash flow !