Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
DonMac. Nobody posts on here so I thought the article was relevant for new arrivals. With 70% COS I really want to see tanager drilled this year. No doubt it will happen but not impossible for it to be pushed back. Fingers crossed.
DonMac read Article to the end where situation on canje and kaieteur is Outlined.
The challenges being faced by ExxonMobil were also reported on by Upstream Online. The international online news outfit said that ExxonMobil is also facing a difficult decision on whether to go ahead with planned exploration wells on the Canje and Kaieteur block in the second quarter of 2020.
Upstream said it learned that ExxonMobil had lined up the drillship Noble Tom Madden to drill the Bulletwood prospect at a water depth of 2800 metres in the Canje block and the drillship Stena Carron for the Tanager prospect in 2900 metres of water on the Kaieteur block.
Upstream said that Tanager would be the deeper of the two, with a target total depth of 8300 metres, right down to the source rock. As for Bulletwood, Upstream understands that ExxonMobil will be focusing principally on a confined channel in the Upper Cretaceous, though there have been suggestions that the well could also probe secondary Lower Tertiary and deeper Lower Cretaceous targets.
Q2 rather
Maverick. I think this is likely to be a farm down of orinduik in return for a carry of 2 wells and largest Cretaceous targets. That is my guess and it’s clear Total are pushing on in the region and also have QP keen to further raise there exposure to oil. I am pretty confident something has leaked and that TLW has also been acting strangely today.
It will be interesting to see the results on resource estimates. I have always thought PB is very grounded and not keen to over promise until the facts are validated. I was very surpriseD to hear him state with confidence that the resource is likely 100’s of BCF’s. Fingers crossed he hasn’t been on a marketing rampathon. The recent placing at 40p makes me feel this is highly unlikely to not be a very material discovery (200-300BCF)
It’s a matter of time here and sentiment going into Chinook once we have independent reserves report from GLJ on Cascadura will send This into orbit. We are talking 1 TCF potential structure. I’m addition they are working off Data from old wells drilled in the 60s much like Cascadura. They are moving up structure and another liquids rich gas discovery and this is getting taken out by a major.
Marcel. I’m not adding here either but did in the teens and at 9p to bring my average down to mid 40s. Perhaps this is clouding my judgement of your posts and i suppose I have to concede the media and narrative is all negative oil at present. I pay them no mind because the OP must correct near term or everyone will be out of business. That simply won’t happen and clearly some can resist longer than others based on liquidity headroom etc. I don’t believe TLW are in any material danger over next 12-18months and see Kenya sale and future oil price making today’s price look cheaper. Will it get cheaper in the headwinds of corona fallout and negative sector news - possibly but it could just as easily rerate to mid 30s from here. I won’t buy more unless I see irrational price in the mid teens but I wouldn’t hold my breath. I know you are awaiting a pullback to top up mid teens. Fair enough.
Ha. I’m not the one silly enough to believe he will influence the SP by posting every negative oil related article I can find on google. What a plonker you are to suggest the opposite.
Marcel you do nothing but post negative articles with no context. I’m calling you out on it because you clog up this board with a one sided barrage of negative links.
This is so undervalued based on likely resources and revenue from Cascadura and that’s before we even price anything in for Chinook. The gap will im sure will close once the resource numbers are back from GLJ and confirmation of rig onsite at Chinook gets out. This is the time to buy when cash is available.
I’d be chuffed to be bits with anything over 100BCF recoverable. From a $3m well that’s an unbelievable return and the flow rates look world class. Can’t believe I’ve been able to accumulate my shares sub 30p. Can’t wait for the update , perhaps news that rig onsite for Chinook and prospective resources for Cascadura.
Marcel thanks for your post and considered view. I share the view that the next 12 months will be volatile but at I believe Tullow will exit Kenya with the Chinese likely to take a long term view and see this development as strategically important. I see a ballpark $400-$450m at the very least being agreed and a reset of investor minds to the upside across the portfolio built over recent years. The historical overlap of Tullow assets with Totals is one of the main reasons I am bullish on Tullow and there direction of travel appears to be focused on geography’s that overlap our less mature licences. If you review the deal struck by Total in Suriname, the partner agreement with apache includes a $5bn carry on development costs. With prime real estate in Guyanese/Suriname waters largely taken I believe any significant Initial discovery will bring majors to the table on favourable terms to Tullow. The Qataris have farmed into orinduik via total and any Cretaceous play opener on the licence or indeed kanuku will be a game changer for total. I have no problem waiting 12-18 months having now averaged down to circa 42p over recent months and Holding most of my shares in a SIPP. However despite the Armageddon scenarios touted I do not believe Tullow are incapable of weathering the 12 month storm ahead.
Holding ground... you clearly have been invested 5 mins. We have gone from £2 to £1 to 50-70p to 20p! We have definitely not been holding ground and you offered the article with no context.
1- 60% of 2020 production hedged at $57PB
2 - Breakeven now $35PB
3 - RBL sorted
4 - New CEO
5 - Uganda deal still not realised in share price IMO
6 - Kenyan sale in transit - no guarantees but clear we are looking at full exit of 50% interest.
7 - A leaner Tullow to emerge with 4 licences in the two most prospective and hottest basins in the world. Guyana and Suriname.
Just a few reasons to be positive....
Marcel the macro environment is known by all and opposing views are freely available across the internet from oil commentators. Without any context On how this impacts Tullow in your post - what are you trying to achieve?