Member Info for tradeemup

Looks like Exxon are pressing ahead on tanager. seismic and read across from starbroek block means a 73% COS assigned..

www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/exxonmobil-to-press-ahead-with-guyana-deep-water-probe-despite-covid-19-challenges/2-1-802076

Can go lower but in my experience always tiny amounts available. I managed to pick up two 25k share blocks at 23.66 about 8 days ago but within the hour the ask was 27p.

Being very conservative Coho and Cascadura should produce 50MMCF per day and if we assume $3 per MCF (guidance is currently north of $3) that’s $54,750,000 per annum. Once we are into production I think 50p is a conservative SP target. So any repeat of the recent casca success at chinook (Liquid rich gas with similar flow rates) Will be very cheap at £1

As below with addition of tie in of coho discovery to come online early July at 10mmcf doubling production. Plus reserves report on large Cascadura discovery as relayed below (CEO has stated 100s of NCFs) . Further to that we are awaiting news On spud of Chinook a separate structure a mile away from Cascadura well. The target is large and the structure is 4 times larger than Cascadura and had hydrocarbon show in late 60s well much like the Cascadura well. Chinook is not priced in at all but interest will gather. If reserves at Cascadura are in the 100s of BCF range then Chinook could be 0.5 TCF!

I should have said ‘should underpin’. The market has doubts until the gas is flowing and we have 6 months of operational performance. It will come good.

Agreed lexion , though no stock for buyers sub 26p yet. The spread and games here are clear as day and the price can jump or nosedive on tiny volume. coho and Cascadura production underpin the market cap here now and I can’t find a peer producing 9k boepd at a £45m mcap. Chinook appears to be a freebie for the believers!

Hadn’t seen this angle DonMac but did some extensive research this evening. I think an RTO is on the cards. JHI most likely candidate here and would make total sense. Based on read across from ECOs current Valuation with 15% WI in orinduik the NAV of the stakes built at current WTE looks like basement floor pricing. I’ll be adding more. Why is there no interest here in your opinion ?

Hope the irrational selling continues. Another opportunity to top up sub 26p would be great.

Unless the lockdown is sustained Beyond mid May the licence commitments will dictate that Chinook drill is a requirement. I’d chill if you are concerned. No reason for Down hole pressure gauges not to be retrieved as TXP still have people in the field so this is also highly unlikely. I’d expect an update on resource size imminently.

Clearly the stakes in ECO and RATIO are easier to value here as they are quoted stocks. However they are near year lows and offer plenty of upside. the interesting part is then assigning a value for the 3% JHI stake given the $185M carry on drilling. All in all I think the upside given Exxon’s amazing geo team and history finding oil in the region is considerable. I’ve watched this stock for a while and sub 10p this looks a very compelling investment. Very quiet at present but it won’t be long

DonMac. Nobody posts on here so I thought the article was relevant for new arrivals. With 70% COS I really want to see tanager drilled this year. No doubt it will happen but not impossible for it to be pushed back. Fingers crossed.

DonMac read Article to the end where situation on canje and kaieteur is Outlined.

The challenges being faced by ExxonMobil were also reported on by Upstream Online. The international online news outfit said that ExxonMobil is also facing a difficult decision on whether to go ahead with planned exploration wells on the Canje and Kaieteur block in the second quarter of 2020.

Upstream said it learned that ExxonMobil had lined up the drillship Noble Tom Madden to drill the Bulletwood prospect at a water depth of 2800 metres in the Canje block and the drillship Stena Carron for the Tanager prospect in 2900 metres of water on the Kaieteur block.

Upstream said that Tanager would be the deeper of the two, with a target total depth of 8300 metres, right down to the source rock. As for Bulletwood, Upstream understands that ExxonMobil will be focusing principally on a confined channel in the Upper Cretaceous, though there have been suggestions that the well could also probe secondary Lower Tertiary and deeper Lower Cretaceous targets.

Q2 rather

https://www.guyanastandard.com/2020/04/05/stena-carron-drillship-pulled-from-drilling-programme-on-stabroek-block-due-to-covid-19/

Won’t take my shares until Cascadura is flowing has. £1 by mid 2021 here

Will take 100k shares at 28.44 now.. news landing tommorow I suspect.

The spread has been a joke here for a fortnight. I suspect orders to fill. Hopefully positive update tommorow

Maverick. I think this is likely to be a farm down of orinduik in return for a carry of 2 wells and largest Cretaceous targets. That is my guess and it’s clear Total are pushing on in the region and also have QP keen to further raise there exposure to oil. I am pretty confident something has leaked and that TLW has also been acting strangely today.

It will be interesting to see the results on resource estimates. I have always thought PB is very grounded and not keen to over promise until the facts are validated. I was very surpriseD to hear him state with confidence that the resource is likely 100’s of BCF’s. Fingers crossed he hasn’t been on a marketing rampathon. The recent placing at 40p makes me feel this is highly unlikely to not be a very material discovery (200-300BCF)

It’s a matter of time here and sentiment going into Chinook once we have independent reserves report from GLJ on Cascadura will send This into orbit. We are talking 1 TCF potential structure. I’m addition they are working off Data from old wells drilled in the 60s much like Cascadura. They are moving up structure and another liquids rich gas discovery and this is getting taken out by a major.