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If 65 Fe pricing remains over 170 ton in H1 £4.25 is a very conservative target. Share buyback programme should also be considered if market fails to close the value gap. Tbh I think this will move very quickly on Q1 production update.
Credit Suisse, in a note quoted by Barron’s, lifted its forecast for iron ore during the first half of the year to $170 a tonne, from a lowly $110 before and also adjusted upwards its expectations for the next three years.
Cooled off ha. I’ll take $183 Ton 65% Fe & 52.80 pellet premium for Q1 right now. FXPO are going to be printing cash in Q1 with 3.6m tons sold at near 10 year highs. £1.6m mcap is laughable.
It appears you are being very kind spirited and are VERY keen to flag any disinformation. However Camkite is the only person in this dialogues posting FACTS. Your passive aggressive responses when presented with the FACTS from available RNS records suggest you have history here prior to the recent placing. We can only deal with the FACTS today and value presented at current share price vs listed AIM peers not legacy issues you have with BOD.
I have run the numbers with similar results Tobin. The return on capital employed here and Speed with which an onshore development plan can be progressed makes this a unique opportunity. If the exceptional casca1 flow rates are mirrored at Chinook the potential will surely be further priced in. Time to add is now or certainly post Chinook flow rates are confirmed.
I can’t remember if the recent placing at 95p had any restrictions imposed or lock in period. However although the $30m raise only represents circa 8-9% of share capital I would imagine a 25-30% rise in current climate will leave II players banking some gains in such a short window. With the info available it’s clear an mcap closer to £2 is in order. NGC deal and Chinook rates aligned to Cascadura will take this north very quickly IMO
LL the key points for me are geography here And cost of productIon in relation to peers. If we look at world class assets that are stranded due to Capex, shipping routes/ lack of infrastructure etc (zanga iron ore is a great example) Then this is in an optimum location. When it comes to cost of production in The current highly volatile price market it almost sounds too good to be true though. At scale I doubt $1.50 is sustainable but even at $2.50 we have a hugely sustainable business at prices near the bottom of the cycle. One to hold I think
Timing Is sometimes everything. It appears vanadium was $14 on IPO which supported a market value of £219.1mln.
A group said a placing price of 70p implies a market capitalisation of £219.1mln.
Based on jurisdiction (bordering China) and low Capex and extraction costs at lowest end of the scale the economics look compelling. I’ve taken a starter position here and will add if it drifts lower.
YE. I have read their guidance but I believe that our interim CEO Dotty kitchen sinked the outlook statements to clear the decks for a new CEO. New incumbent will naturally want the platform for a turnaround at rock bottom expectations. In addition we all know the market is forward looking and A plan out to 2022 would still have an impact on sentiment and forward earnings projections. Also worth noting the 70k guidance hadn’t accounted for flaring permits to control re injection. If we see $60 Brent in 2021 and a commercial hit in Guyana £1 is possible.
Tullow is weathering a major storm at present however it has strong assets and a number of catalysts that will see the SP increase.
1 - Uganda deal needs to go through preserving cash and Capex commitments in an unstable geography.
2 - the road back to 90k BOPD needs to be cleared and signposted by new CEO
3 - The exploration assets are highly prospective. Should the Goliathberg well be successful in Suriname then it will be well received. Just look at Apache share price rise and the amazing deal struck with Total for a 50% farm in.
3 - Orinduik In Guyana and the poor communication of. Major discovery prior to analysis of the oil deemed heavy and high sulphur. These were all in the tertiary and the Cretaceous prospects are huge 700 MMB targets. One strike and its game on to £1.
The balancing act between Capex against backdrop of debt will be key and some fortune of course when you a dealing with exploration. It’s definitely not implausible that TLW SP could be £1 within 12 months. EG oil returns to $55-60 range and Tullow guidance is revised to 90k BOPD and Guyana and Suriname assets deliver a commercial discovery. All to play for but not without risk
Makingdough. It’s frustrating not to see the update reflected in the share price but in this instance their is no hidden news and the BOD are playing with a straight bat. If as I suspect the resource size is in the 200-300 BCF range then the current price offers an amazing entry for those looking to join the party. I’ve seen so many small oilers make Significant discoveries that lack the infrastructure For a simple investment decision. TXP haven’t made an offshore discovery or an onshore discovery that requires complex FID and review of CAPEX, they will be ok the radar of some large majors with domestic demand and an enviable timeline to production. Every box here is ticked and I truly expect £1 per share by March 2021
Makingdough. What Are you talking about? Have you seen the daily volume here and the shareholding north have to clear? TBH the issue is everybody needing an immediate update every 5 minutes. The gas is there, the flow rates are exceptional etc and we spud chinook Inside 30 days. Does everyone think his is a get rich quick scheme. All in good time and £1 by this time next year will do me!
Shell guy this was asked at the recent Q&A webinar. The answer is yes we will encounter the same productive zones however Cascadura deep will also target zone below which means it counts as an exploration well and satisfies our 4 well exp well commitment. Heavily derisked well with upside in deeper structure.
The resource at Cascadura has just been confirmed as world class with monster flow rates. Once north have unloaded and market volatility settles this will rerate. This is no longer a typical AIM Sell on news stock IMO and if we have anywhere near a 2-300BCF discovery which I now believe is likely we are hugely undervalued.
Main takeaways here are the confirmation of ‘unbounded’ reservoir and an unreal absolute open hole flow rate estimated at 390MMcfd. Does this mean that a second Successful well In the structure allows TXP to ramp up to 80-90 MMCF per day. This may be why PB stated that the most important news would be confirmation of the AOF for now rather than resource size. With the drawdown data and AOF in this crazy range and GLJ conservative nature I would think that a second well to drain the pool also equates to a significant production upgrade!
Was nursing a £42k loss 3 months ago. The upside in Guyana and Suriname will come into play in 2021 Tullow exit in Uganda and Kenya will put debt concerns to bed. Really sorry to hear that MrD didn’t stick it out as catalysts to £1 are definitely there. This is a hold and once 40p is broken I expect the institutions that issue 30-40p revised broker notes to pile in. The transfer of wealth well and truly underway.