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At this point after the rig move to casc B site interrupting testing we are all just waiting in anticipation. I must admit that if potential flow rates are non commercial I will feel this has all to a certain extent been orchestrated to protect the share price. Eg align negative news with Cascadura first gas.

How can they conceivably take this long to test the intermediate zone ? Even an initial indication of flow rates with cautionary statement regarding the need for a long term test period (90-120 days) would seem normal. I do feel we will get positive news but doubt are creeping in after the last Royston ramp for PB and chinook PR. What is their to test after the initial first 7 days? Surely if a dud they would have announced by now?

The company really need to improve their comms and ability to set expectations on realistic time frames!

Janedoe it looks like 2024 for cas C if successful to be connected as a producer to the gas facilities. However Paul stated he sees the rig being ready to drill cas B and C (likely back to back) in august/September 2023. If successful we are then looking at the hook up timeframe of mid 2024.

Royston testing ongoing now and 400-500 BOPD would be very commercial result. This would then unlock potential to drill many more wells and get some very welcome reserves. Little in the SP for Royston as things stand today. Oil can be trucked so can hit the bottom line immediately without the need for pipelines first.

Interesting wording in the RNS. Does this indicate an expectation that the second test will flow at commercial rates and a likely requirement for it to go on long term test to establish baseline production rates? Any feedback from those more technical in the O&G field welcome. “ As each test will be performed independently, we expect a number of months of testing upon commencement of the second test. “ We will update the market when results become available."

RNS seems to confirm initial talks underway with PEXA group australian listed with 2.42bn AUD market cap. Looks like a strategic fit with their platform businesses. Could easily see a £40m buyout. DYOR

If the intention was to not retain the rig on-site beyond testing the sub thrust sheet then this should have been communicated. Stating that testing would commence in April with no mention of operational constraints due to rig move smacks of very poor planning. Feels like they suddenly decided to be agile with the testing plan? Royston could be a huge asset and moving goal position on results is an own goal. PB needs to improve comms.

If it means they get the rig to work on Royston and don’t waste a dry season to prioritise casca first gas then so be it. Nothing priced in for Royston and it’s a huge potential game changer on top of Cascadura. We can’t plod along to ensure we are self funding. Royston needs expediting so we can frame the size of the prize. I am concerned about the teams operational capabilities after coho but prepared to give the benefit of the doubt.

Has everyone missed that the cas deep intermediate zone is non commercial too?

CAR3Y. There is no gas!

Paul has known this for quite some time imo. fairytale over.

Paul baay has been leading us on somewhat. Some very clear comms on world class well post drilling are now being revised. Not good enough from Paul.

Also worth highlighting the jpm forecast is for 62% Fe benchmark. Given fxpo superior product and current pellet premiums the mind really does boggle.

If 65 Fe pricing remains over 170 ton in H1 £4.25 is a very conservative target. Share buyback programme should also be considered if market fails to close the value gap. Tbh I think this will move very quickly on Q1 production update.

Credit Suisse, in a note quoted by Barron’s, lifted its forecast for iron ore during the first half of the year to $170 a tonne, from a lowly $110 before and also adjusted upwards its expectations for the next three years.

Cooled off ha. I’ll take $183 Ton 65% Fe & 52.80 pellet premium for Q1 right now. FXPO are going to be printing cash in Q1 with 3.6m tons sold at near 10 year highs. £1.6m mcap is laughable.

It appears you are being very kind spirited and are VERY keen to flag any disinformation. However Camkite is the only person in this dialogues posting FACTS. Your passive aggressive responses when presented with the FACTS from available RNS records suggest you have history here prior to the recent placing. We can only deal with the FACTS today and value presented at current share price vs listed AIM peers not legacy issues you have with BOD.

I have run the numbers with similar results Tobin. The return on capital employed here and Speed with which an onshore development plan can be progressed makes this a unique opportunity. If the exceptional casca1 flow rates are mirrored at Chinook the potential will surely be further priced in. Time to add is now or certainly post Chinook flow rates are confirmed.

I can’t remember if the recent placing at 95p had any restrictions imposed or lock in period. However although the $30m raise only represents circa 8-9% of share capital I would imagine a 25-30% rise in current climate will leave II players banking some gains in such a short window. With the info available it’s clear an mcap closer to £2 is in order. NGC deal and Chinook rates aligned to Cascadura will take this north very quickly IMO

If the team are to tackle Royston a new rig is needed for sure! Chinook flow test to surprise next. If it’s in the 25-30 Mmcf range I think the share price runs much higher.

LL the key points for me are geography here And cost of productIon in relation to peers. If we look at world class assets that are stranded due to Capex, shipping routes/ lack of infrastructure etc (zanga iron ore is a great example) Then this is in an optimum location. When it comes to cost of production in The current highly volatile price market it almost sounds too good to be true though. At scale I doubt $1.50 is sustainable but even at $2.50 we have a hugely sustainable business at prices near the bottom of the cycle. One to hold I think

Timing Is sometimes everything. It appears vanadium was $14 on IPO which supported a market value of £219.1mln.

A group said a placing price of 70p implies a market capitalisation of £219.1mln.

Based on jurisdiction (bordering China) and low Capex and extraction costs at lowest end of the scale the economics look compelling. I’ve taken a starter position here and will add if it drifts lower.

YE. I have read their guidance but I believe that our interim CEO Dotty kitchen sinked the outlook statements to clear the decks for a new CEO. New incumbent will naturally want the platform for a turnaround at rock bottom expectations. In addition we all know the market is forward looking and A plan out to 2022 would still have an impact on sentiment and forward earnings projections. Also worth noting the 70k guidance hadn’t accounted for flaring permits to control re injection. If we see $60 Brent in 2021 and a commercial hit in Guyana £1 is possible.