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No interest in hearing about Kraken and steelhead! PB talking about getting current wells being optimised over next 6 months. Get on with the development wells and CASC C pad PB! Forget exploration for 12 months FFS!
Max capacity at Cascadura is huge.
$2.4 per MCF. 200000 X $2.4 = $480k per day = $170M per year.
At $70 oil. 5000 X $70 = $350k per day = $125M per annum.
SO OPERATING TO MAX CAPACITY = circa $300M revenue from Cascadura alone!
Don’t despair JPP. Fortunately the prospect of dilution or indeed gas price movements or lack of local demand for our product are all largely derisked. I’ve seen real disasters many many times that left shareholder with nothing but empty promises. Eg the resources never even left the ground.
I criticise PB but the reality is we have a gas facility , and expansion capacity to really move the needle. What’s another 12 months. If I guaranteed 200MMCF + 5000bopd within 12 months I think you would be nuts to sell out no? Take stock and hold for the real money
Agreed Sturm. I’ve gone through a range of emotions holding this for 3 years. However we are now in the value realisation zone. It would be foolish to bail now but also appreciate many have short term timelines and want to put money to work elsewhere. I’ll be here until the 2 development wells are drilled and all being well will wait for the expanded facility to be maxed out. I really want the management to focus on the near revenue opp though and have little appetite for any talk of upside exploration targets or gung-ho drilling until the cash cow is milked.
If the operational team can successfully drill to fill we will see £2 per share before 2025.
Cascadura capacity = 200MMCF + 5000 BOPD
COHO = 24MMCF
Run numbers on the above production and the road to £2 is extremely clear. Id be very happy with 180% return. Let the traders move on. Get on with it PB!
I am very much looking forward to the development wells and testing to further depth. We could see a material jump in reserves. Best guess on current data 398BCF. External third parties tend to be cautious on Large discoveries but this one has room
To be proven much larger IMO.
Consultant GLJ Ltd has estimated Cascadura hosts between 241.2 and 571.5 billion cubic feet of discovered natural gas in place, with the ‘best’ estimate pitched at 398.5bn.
BTW John I have heard PB at the last presentation suggest October timeline for two back to back drills at CASC C. Do I currently believe this will happen and not be pushed back? ….
Wait for talk of the ‘rainy season’.
I guess what I’m saying John is that at this point I don’t want the company to spend energy or further resources on Royston. We should be fully focused on meeting max capacity at Cascadura. Royston is clearly low permeability despite Paul’s constantly telling the market it was ‘as good as it gets’. As you may be aware I feel PB is very economical with the truth and prone to hyperbole. Just focus on maxing out the world class assets productive capacity and increasing reserves!
I assume they cannot take the risk of ordering long lead items to enable additional capacity until the dev wells are drilled and tested including GLJ consultant, independent third party report. I hope they are talking to manufacturers and suppliers as we speak and ready to drill by no later than end of October. I honestly think they need to communicate the plan and be in the field ASAP before we start hearing about ‘rainy season’.
Paul Baay really sidestepped the Royston question. Test some zones on pump over next few months?
Honestly they need to get the drill bit turning on the development wells and leave Royston for H2 2024. All we want is the path to 34:35k BoE/d accelerated and optimised! GET ON IT PB
Fair and balanced post ID78. This is now the floor price give or take 10%. We will now ramp volumes and we move to CASC C site. The realisation of value may take longer than we had hoped but their is no doubt the market can’t ignore the FCF and project plan to ramp to 200MMCF +5000 BOPD.
Current mcap £200M. Given no debt and current cash position somewhat protected by local sales I can’t see it breaking 70-72 area. This is definitely a buying opp on a risk vs reward basis. Saudi cuts pushing oil above $90, will the stand off continue. Unlikely given the $$$ being lost on a daily basis. AIMHO DYOR etcetc.
Honestly nobody understand the frustration more than me. But I’m mostly upset by PB’s absolutely shocking ramping post chinook and now it seems Royston. However I’d rather they increase volumes to maximum guidance before updating the market. It really appears many are desperate to sell on news here! IMO that would be very shortsighted because the next CASC C pad drills will happen with zero threat of dilution and ramp is to 200MMCF.
Stable production over a quarter see this back at 50p+. You o ou have to understand the capex on Ankatara to see the clear disconnect in the market cap. I expect existing shareholders are block buying sub 45p..:::
The market had priced in Armageddon, covenant breaches , potential dry docking of tankers etc. Negative Sentiment here will reverse quickly with montará producing and updates on Akatara milestones. This will continue to trend up in coming weeks/months
TBH corpse ‘technical issues’ dosent cover the unfolding events at Royston. PB has spent the best part of two years making excuses for Royston after pronouncing the discovery was as good as it gets and initial flow rates of 500-1000 BOPD. In addition he still presents Royston a a potential world class asset in his presentations, teasing a development plan that could run for years! He is full of BS
As predicted dunderhead Royston was a duster. Let’s hope Paul’s creative truths didn’t stretch to cas production profile. Anything less than circa 9000boe/d and I’ll definitely consider him the new James parsons. I’ll also be rather vocal at the next U.K. a event!