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I’ve just caught up on the presentation and do feel that PB failed to deliver a clear message on the drill to fill programme. Somehow we ended up discussing faulty compressors banged about in transit and internal discontent with gas pricing negotiated 14-16 months ago. Speaking so openly in the public domain , with the inevitable YouTube upload this is a serious own goal IMO. Poor management and I am seriously reconsidering the investment case here. I don’t care about short term share price volatility but the story has to hold up to scrutiny and this the path to 200MMSCF needs to be set out clearly with timelines ! I can live with Q1 2025 hook up of development wells in the success case but nothing is clear !

According to PB it would take 6 months post successful development wells to increase facility capacity. This basically means we are highly unlikely to see gas production uplift until 2025. When Paul says late H2 2024 he means late H1 2025 :) I’ll still be here but now add 6-8 months to any commitments made from our captain.

Well at least we aren’t going to suffer further dilution. However the poor timeline management now leaves us waiting for cash position to build prior to any announcement on additional development well drilling. I’d rather wait but this has only happened due to mismanagement. Glad share options are under review as this BOD are vastly overpaid based on recent performance.

Given the current market cap and allowing for self funded development to reach 200MMCF production and 5000 BOPD all that’s now required is patience. The main issue is that we have a CEO who is economical with the truth and we are paying the price. Rightly the market wants to see the cash flow and gas flow rates as a result. Once those are demonstrated and development wells are spudded the share price will rerate way above £1. 6 months after 4 years is no time to wait :)

As stated earlier today I expect that if the team want to drill two wells at CASC C back to back with a November spud date, an equity raise is more than likely. Can I live with 10% dilution at 65p ? The answer is yes but I really wish this management team could actually plan out a real world sequence of events. Zero contingency for unforeseen events in their financial planning!

Sturm this investment has tested my patience due to poor timeline guidance on milestones. However I am not a seller and have held my shares for over 4 years. Ultimately the market is not pricing in the production profile of a WC discovery. I am just being realistic about the likely sequence of events prior to the full unlocking of the asset. I will be holding until the facility reaches maximum output or evidence to the contrary materialises.

Fair enough John , maybe I’m a tad grouchy today. The current heatwave may be getting to me!

I suppose the all important questions regarding production ramp up and economics will soon be answered in the upcoming event. However if a raise circa 65-70p means development drilling at both sites can be expedited (November spud) rather than drag into early 24 I personally could live with it. We shall see but SP indicates one last equity raise AIMHO

Hi Dartron. I have interpreted the financial position similarly. Given the desire to drill back to back development wells on CASC C pad there would clearly be a reliance on net cash inflows from the new gas facility. Timing is everything and given the additional opportunity identified and being communicated at Coho I am concerned that additional cash to expedite the drill to fill programme will be taken up by PB. Johnxxx prefers to be condescending than engage in debate.

Hi John. Unfortunately I don’t have a crystal ball and I do understand the companies financial position and facility access. However I did foresee the last 2 raises and am simply wondering if given the delays to first gas sales and ramp up the board might feel 5% dilution etc for the expedited dual rig development across both gas producers may be worth it? When their is cash on the table above or at current share price you tend to find AIM listed Boards are very prudent….. PS - no need to be condescending.

I think wider market sentiment and in particular volume on AIM is an issue due to interest rates and looming recessionary signals. I hope this isn’t the sign of one final equity raise with the hook of development well drilling to attract institutions. IF PB does raise now he will blame extended timelines for tight finances and that it makes sense to accelerate coho and Cascadura in tandem. Something here smells Off! Hope I’m wrong but I tend to not be!

No interest in hearing about Kraken and steelhead! PB talking about getting current wells being optimised over next 6 months. Get on with the development wells and CASC C pad PB! Forget exploration for 12 months FFS!

Max capacity at Cascadura is huge.

$2.4 per MCF. 200000 X $2.4 = $480k per day = $170M per year.

At $70 oil. 5000 X $70 = $350k per day = $125M per annum.

SO OPERATING TO MAX CAPACITY = circa $300M revenue from Cascadura alone!

Don’t despair JPP. Fortunately the prospect of dilution or indeed gas price movements or lack of local demand for our product are all largely derisked. I’ve seen real disasters many many times that left shareholder with nothing but empty promises. Eg the resources never even left the ground.

I criticise PB but the reality is we have a gas facility , and expansion capacity to really move the needle. What’s another 12 months. If I guaranteed 200MMCF + 5000bopd within 12 months I think you would be nuts to sell out no? Take stock and hold for the real money

Agreed Sturm. I’ve gone through a range of emotions holding this for 3 years. However we are now in the value realisation zone. It would be foolish to bail now but also appreciate many have short term timelines and want to put money to work elsewhere. I’ll be here until the 2 development wells are drilled and all being well will wait for the expanded facility to be maxed out. I really want the management to focus on the near revenue opp though and have little appetite for any talk of upside exploration targets or gung-ho drilling until the cash cow is milked.

If the operational team can successfully drill to fill we will see £2 per share before 2025.

Cascadura capacity = 200MMCF + 5000 BOPD

COHO = 24MMCF

Run numbers on the above production and the road to £2 is extremely clear. Id be very happy with 180% return. Let the traders move on. Get on with it PB!

I am very much looking forward to the development wells and testing to further depth. We could see a material jump in reserves. Best guess on current data 398BCF. External third parties tend to be cautious on Large discoveries but this one has room

To be proven much larger IMO.

Consultant GLJ Ltd has estimated Cascadura hosts between 241.2 and 571.5 billion cubic feet of discovered natural gas in place, with the ‘best’ estimate pitched at 398.5bn.

BTW John I have heard PB at the last presentation suggest October timeline for two back to back drills at CASC C. Do I currently believe this will happen and not be pushed back? ….

Wait for talk of the ‘rainy season’.

I guess what I’m saying John is that at this point I don’t want the company to spend energy or further resources on Royston. We should be fully focused on meeting max capacity at Cascadura. Royston is clearly low permeability despite Paul’s constantly telling the market it was ‘as good as it gets’. As you may be aware I feel PB is very economical with the truth and prone to hyperbole. Just focus on maxing out the world class assets productive capacity and increasing reserves!

I assume they cannot take the risk of ordering long lead items to enable additional capacity until the dev wells are drilled and tested including GLJ consultant, independent third party report. I hope they are talking to manufacturers and suppliers as we speak and ready to drill by no later than end of October. I honestly think they need to communicate the plan and be in the field ASAP before we start hearing about ‘rainy season’.

Paul Baay really sidestepped the Royston question. Test some zones on pump over next few months?

Honestly they need to get the drill bit turning on the development wells and leave Royston for H2 2024. All we want is the path to 34:35k BoE/d accelerated and optimised! GET ON IT PB