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Why is everyone wetting the bed here! When the company has material news it will be compelled to release it. Watching share price moves on tiny volume and using it to foresee bad news! This isn’t a lottery ticket and drilling operations take time and can experience delays - get some perspective!
Thanks John. I hope it’s another successful development well. Then we will need to rely on the teams learnings to date and Our snail like friends at NGC to get the short pipeline work done. I don’t believe in a Q4 2024 tie in story but would be delighted to see this all materialise by end of Q1 2025. So much value to unlock here :)
I’ve had a mad month at work so not been able to keep up with news on CAS 3. Assuming the well has been spud ? Was this announced and what was the approximate spud date? Do we think results in first week of April are likely?
Thanks In advance for any informed answers on this. Long term holder here - but behind the curve on cas3 progression.
CAS 2 validated concept of sands extending significantly to the east of initial discovery. The impact on CPR auto be seen but it’s a huge validation event. Onto the next well ! No problems getting the loan facility extended now!
Onwards to CAS 3. As suspected this is going to prove to be a very large structure way beyond the CPR. Patience was always needed and still is. But not for too much longer. The value gap is going to close in fast in H2.
Not ideal comms from PB, as usual he made a commitment to reveal FY24 plan and capex commitment to drill to fill. In meeting his self imposed deadline he has lost credibility but I do believe funding will be sorted very soon. Ultimately in the success case the development wells are very significant value enhancers. Doom and gloom today but not in late jan as the drill turns.
Scored the hedging is prudent management IMO. This still leaves plenty of upside given the 24 hedging appears to be for circa 20% of production?
If we assume a conservative 40k BOPD X 350 that’s annual production of 14 million barrels oil…
The Group has hedged a total of c.3.5 MMbbls for 2024 and c.0.2 MMbbls for 2025, predominantly using put options at an average floor price of c.$60/bbl
Given production hit 20k BOPD and the last well of the infill programme is projected to deliver 3500bopd it’s looking like a cash cow. Noting the additional depth of the well (730 metres) we can also expect a material impact to reserves. This really looks like a ridiculous price and company valuation at present. I see 60-70p in short order.
I’ve just caught up on the presentation and do feel that PB failed to deliver a clear message on the drill to fill programme. Somehow we ended up discussing faulty compressors banged about in transit and internal discontent with gas pricing negotiated 14-16 months ago. Speaking so openly in the public domain , with the inevitable YouTube upload this is a serious own goal IMO. Poor management and I am seriously reconsidering the investment case here. I don’t care about short term share price volatility but the story has to hold up to scrutiny and this the path to 200MMSCF needs to be set out clearly with timelines ! I can live with Q1 2025 hook up of development wells in the success case but nothing is clear !
According to PB it would take 6 months post successful development wells to increase facility capacity. This basically means we are highly unlikely to see gas production uplift until 2025. When Paul says late H2 2024 he means late H1 2025 :) I’ll still be here but now add 6-8 months to any commitments made from our captain.
Well at least we aren’t going to suffer further dilution. However the poor timeline management now leaves us waiting for cash position to build prior to any announcement on additional development well drilling. I’d rather wait but this has only happened due to mismanagement. Glad share options are under review as this BOD are vastly overpaid based on recent performance.
Given the current market cap and allowing for self funded development to reach 200MMCF production and 5000 BOPD all that’s now required is patience. The main issue is that we have a CEO who is economical with the truth and we are paying the price. Rightly the market wants to see the cash flow and gas flow rates as a result. Once those are demonstrated and development wells are spudded the share price will rerate way above £1. 6 months after 4 years is no time to wait :)
As stated earlier today I expect that if the team want to drill two wells at CASC C back to back with a November spud date, an equity raise is more than likely. Can I live with 10% dilution at 65p ? The answer is yes but I really wish this management team could actually plan out a real world sequence of events. Zero contingency for unforeseen events in their financial planning!
Sturm this investment has tested my patience due to poor timeline guidance on milestones. However I am not a seller and have held my shares for over 4 years. Ultimately the market is not pricing in the production profile of a WC discovery. I am just being realistic about the likely sequence of events prior to the full unlocking of the asset. I will be holding until the facility reaches maximum output or evidence to the contrary materialises.
Fair enough John , maybe I’m a tad grouchy today. The current heatwave may be getting to me!
I suppose the all important questions regarding production ramp up and economics will soon be answered in the upcoming event. However if a raise circa 65-70p means development drilling at both sites can be expedited (November spud) rather than drag into early 24 I personally could live with it. We shall see but SP indicates one last equity raise AIMHO
Hi Dartron. I have interpreted the financial position similarly. Given the desire to drill back to back development wells on CASC C pad there would clearly be a reliance on net cash inflows from the new gas facility. Timing is everything and given the additional opportunity identified and being communicated at Coho I am concerned that additional cash to expedite the drill to fill programme will be taken up by PB. Johnxxx prefers to be condescending than engage in debate.
Hi John. Unfortunately I don’t have a crystal ball and I do understand the companies financial position and facility access. However I did foresee the last 2 raises and am simply wondering if given the delays to first gas sales and ramp up the board might feel 5% dilution etc for the expedited dual rig development across both gas producers may be worth it? When their is cash on the table above or at current share price you tend to find AIM listed Boards are very prudent….. PS - no need to be condescending.
I think wider market sentiment and in particular volume on AIM is an issue due to interest rates and looming recessionary signals. I hope this isn’t the sign of one final equity raise with the hook of development well drilling to attract institutions. IF PB does raise now he will blame extended timelines for tight finances and that it makes sense to accelerate coho and Cascadura in tandem. Something here smells Off! Hope I’m wrong but I tend to not be!