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www.google.co.uk/amp/s/markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/oil-price-will-jump-115-percent-by-end-of-year-2020-4-1029137604

Marcel. I’m not adding here either but did in the teens and at 9p to bring my average down to mid 40s. Perhaps this is clouding my judgement of your posts and i suppose I have to concede the media and narrative is all negative oil at present. I pay them no mind because the OP must correct near term or everyone will be out of business. That simply won’t happen and clearly some can resist longer than others based on liquidity headroom etc. I don’t believe TLW are in any material danger over next 12-18months and see Kenya sale and future oil price making today’s price look cheaper. Will it get cheaper in the headwinds of corona fallout and negative sector news - possibly but it could just as easily rerate to mid 30s from here. I won’t buy more unless I see irrational price in the mid teens but I wouldn’t hold my breath. I know you are awaiting a pullback to top up mid teens. Fair enough.

Ha. I’m not the one silly enough to believe he will influence the SP by posting every negative oil related article I can find on google. What a plonker you are to suggest the opposite.

Marcel you do nothing but post negative articles with no context. I’m calling you out on it because you clog up this board with a one sided barrage of negative links.

Marcel you copy and pasting of n dative headlines is getting BORING

This is so undervalued based on likely resources and revenue from Cascadura and that’s before we even price anything in for Chinook. The gap will im sure will close once the resource numbers are back from GLJ and confirmation of rig onsite at Chinook gets out. This is the time to buy when cash is available.

I’d be chuffed to be bits with anything over 100BCF recoverable. From a $3m well that’s an unbelievable return and the flow rates look world class. Can’t believe I’ve been able to accumulate my shares sub 30p. Can’t wait for the update , perhaps news that rig onsite for Chinook and prospective resources for Cascadura.

Marcel thanks for your post and considered view. I share the view that the next 12 months will be volatile but at I believe Tullow will exit Kenya with the Chinese likely to take a long term view and see this development as strategically important. I see a ballpark $400-$450m at the very least being agreed and a reset of investor minds to the upside across the portfolio built over recent years. The historical overlap of Tullow assets with Totals is one of the main reasons I am bullish on Tullow and there direction of travel appears to be focused on geography’s that overlap our less mature licences. If you review the deal struck by Total in Suriname, the partner agreement with apache includes a $5bn carry on development costs. With prime real estate in Guyanese/Suriname waters largely taken I believe any significant Initial discovery will bring majors to the table on favourable terms to Tullow. The Qataris have farmed into orinduik via total and any Cretaceous play opener on the licence or indeed kanuku will be a game changer for total. I have no problem waiting 12-18 months having now averaged down to circa 42p over recent months and Holding most of my shares in a SIPP. However despite the Armageddon scenarios touted I do not believe Tullow are incapable of weathering the 12 month storm ahead.

Holding ground... you clearly have been invested 5 mins. We have gone from £2 to £1 to 50-70p to 20p! We have definitely not been holding ground and you offered the article with no context.

1- 60% of 2020 production hedged at $57PB
2 - Breakeven now $35PB
3 - RBL sorted
4 - New CEO
5 - Uganda deal still not realised in share price IMO
6 - Kenyan sale in transit - no guarantees but clear we are looking at full exit of 50% interest.
7 - A leaner Tullow to emerge with 4 licences in the two most prospective and hottest basins in the world. Guyana and Suriname.

Just a few reasons to be positive....

Marcel the macro environment is known by all and opposing views are freely available across the internet from oil commentators. Without any context On how this impacts Tullow in your post - what are you trying to achieve?

Agreed slift. If we could achieve a $450m to $500M sale price with upfront payment terms or structure over no more than 3 years I’d be happy. However I have serious doubts based on the perceived weakness hence my question regarding RI and my willingness to participate. TLW needs to get its balance sheet and debt in order but I have no doubt that a Guyana and Suriname focus can make TLW shine again.

Based on TLW 2019 end of year report the Kenya assets are assigned a value of $679.2m.

I think it all depends on progress with Kenya. However I would participate in the rights issues as I’m sure would most existing shareholders with those not taken up being offered to existing II’s etc. I don’t think it will be necessary but certainly would shut the naysayers talking about witched earth scenarios and TLW going but is 6 months etc. The nonsense spouted on here recently is ridiculous.

Anyway from business daily today below. I think we will hear in Kenyan by end of June.

The firm now faces discounted bids for Kenya, going by the price it accepted in Uganda even though it maintained that the deal had no direct impact on its view about Kenya’s farm-down.

“Tullow expects to receive bids from potential buyers in the coming weeks, and the size and shape of the deal will be decided at that point. We will update you on deal progress in Kenya as soon as we are able to,” the firm said.

Kenya’s Early Oil Pilot Scheme (EOPS) remains shut down,

BT from memory Tullow has valued Kenyan assets at circa $700m. Given the oil price environment and the near term or upfront nature of payments TLW will be seeking, surely our hand will be significantly weakened in negotiations.

I’d rather have a RI than sell Kenya for peanuts or farm down our Ghana interests etc. I don’t think it will come to that but the value creation potential in our Guyana and Suriname licences are huge.

I don’t think all rights issues are the same. We are in unprecedented times with Brent at $20. All I’m really trying to highlight is that with Uganda out of the way there is zero chance that Tullow will not exist post COVID. With hugely prospective licences in Guyana and Suriname with great partners a couple of successful wells can make a huge impact here and I don’t see the nonsense being spouted on here reflecting reality. In an absolute worse case scenario post Uganda sale a RI would without any doubt still allow plenty of upside. All the naysayers on here’s talking about Tullow going bust and posting Standard RNS Disclaimers regarding uncertainty as a groin concern etc are spouting garbage. Who in the current climate has absolute certainty? Airlines, cinemas, restaurant groups. The views on here From many painting the total collapse of tlw are way overblown.

Some may disagree depending on history with this stock but post the Uganda sale if Tullow were to raise £400m by way of Rights issue at say 30p (Open to all shareholders)I think many new holders would be happy to participate. Getting the uncertainty around survival out of the picture for a sustained and committed drilling campaign in Guyana and Suriname licences would bring the unlocked potential back into focus. We would also be back in the FTSE 250 bringing more iis onboard and be able to defer Kenya sale until the outlook and environment allows for fairer value to be attained. Thoughts? Personally if farm downs or Kenya sale does not materialise there is zero chance Tullow will be going bust. A right issue based in the upside across the asset base mean a RI would be easy to get away.

PÉ of 5 or 6 underpinned by reserves and conservatively this could be £1.25 to £1.75p per share in 12 months on Chinook success. No brainer.

Apologies I meant market cap £45 eg circa $55 to $56 depending on Xchange rate

Being conservative if coho and Cascadura provide a consistent daily production of 45MMCF at a conservative $2.8 per MMCF for the company that’s $126k per day or $46m per annum. Market cap here $45m. That’s with zero success at Chinook or Royston. Fill yer boots.