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MrD jethro took 43 days from spud to announcement and TD was at 4400 metres (as per RNS). That included recovery of samples and casing of the well so the average drill speed looks like 120 to 140metres per day and that’s me being conservative. Kanuku is a shallow water block 70-100 metres and based on all Exxon cretaceous discoveries the TD has been at 5400-5600 metres. They have to have reached TD early last week or perhaps even prior to this. I think this will be a discovery and after the poor comms post jethro every care is being taken to evaluate and provide a factual update. Oil API needs to be confirmed before the words major discovery are used in an RNS. The jethro comms were appalling for a ftse listed company.

Average drilling speed if Gulf of Mexico is circa 500-600ft per day. If we are conservative and assuming a 300ft rate of progression and spud date of 24th October they would have been at TD on 2nd December. Rig rates like to be 600 to 700k per day and they don’t hang around on dry holes.....

Assuming the latest date possible (24th October) and 100 metres per day (TD 3600 metres in ) we would have reached target zones on 1st December...

Finger and toes crossed.

Tullow also have an update on their Guyana page which references a late October spud date. Based on this I estimate in the range of 54-58 days. It would be good to get an understanding of average daily drill rate associated to analogous geoglogy. Hess have openly stated that they are averaging 21-26 days to TD albeit they have been very active which leads to greater op efficiency. Even so the differential is to great for me to assume they did not reach TD at least 10-12 days ago...

Dryland it appears Repsol have announced no official spud date. However based on ceo interview with Gil Holzman at eco Atlantic on the 24th October the spud date of carapa a few days earlier was mentioned. This appears to put the spud date between 20th and 22nd October. No hard facts but Gil should be privy to spud date based on the relationship with tullow team and it appeared he was privy to news on the spudding of carapa.

Haha. Dry land you beat me to it. Moodys rating are worthless. More noise to dampen investor sentiment.

TD at 3600-3700 metres in 70 metres of water. Timeline currently in 54-58 day drilling range. Even at a glacial 80metres per day this would have been wrapped up 10 days ago.....

Being super conservative here if we assume 1000boe from coho and 1000bopd from cascadura the mcap is ridiculous. Assuming testing of each net pay zone and that 2 additional wells can be drilled and are permitted on location it is easy to see 5k to 6k bios run rate by 2020 year end. This is a hold for 60-80p minimum.

On any deal the retained interest would allow the market to price in future production landing in 2022. A decision is required to rubber stamp FID and move things on. TLW may yet sell the entire WI but I’d imagine that total and CNOOC will use the current set of events to drive a head bargain. Remember Uganda is onshore with monster flow rates and the economics are world class. I’d take the $200m to reduce debt and keep the WI unless Carapa is a home run.

Perhaps Mr Dossou-Aworet has a buyer in mind for his recently accumulated stake or has the heads up on ops on kanuku. Wouldn’t surprise me.... Rigs aren’t cheap and they aren’t out for 56 on dry holes. Patience if it’s a duster needed but the Cretaceous play opener is inevitable. Geology doesn’t confine itself to licence boundary lines and hammerhead proves that!

Any rerate will take time and the price has settled at a 55 to 60% discount to the closing price on Friday 6th dec. prior to Dorothy opening her knicker draw £1.40 seemed discounted and the entire Guyana portfolio is not priced in. We will need success in a cretaceous play opener and I believe this will happen regardless of carapa result. Tullow will tighten the belts and focus on producing assets and shift all exploration efforts to Guyana IMO. The economics and prize is simply huge and I do not believe the geological sweet spot ends at the boundary of the starbroek block. That is almost inconceivable and tullow will eventually find the play opener. Stay calm this is way way undervalued.

Personally I think they would TD with conservative drilling within 35-40 days. Exxon are quoting 21-25 day average drill times on starbroek. Rigs don’t hang about when their is nothing to test of significance and supply vessels on marine traffic are still making runs. Smells like oil. Given the complete mess and tone of the conf call post jethro ok not surprised any success would be triple checked. Honestly be surprised if it’s a duster.

600 ft of contiguous net pay in the middle Herrera. Mind boggling :)

Just not understood by the market. PB has let us know that 2 further wells can be drilled from current site and therefore development can get a significant jumpstart. Conservatively TXP are on the road to 4-5000 bopd by mid 2020 and potential more dependent on cascadura results. I don’t expect Royston to be drilled until 2 further development wells are prioritised on cascadura. $120-$160m revenue per annum run rate looks very achievable within 2020. Simply amazing. All for an mcap of £33m

Tick tock. 56 days and counting. Cretaceous play opener simply transformational. Does it take 56 days to announce a duster?

Funny how all the doom merchants went missing shortly after the 3 consecutive days of 10-15% rises. Now they’ll all return to warn us of the risks with SP predictions of 40p and reminders of our inability to service debt sub $60 oil etc etc. It really is embarrassing to watch.

2 more development wells can be drilled off the same location and are already permitted. Great minds thinking ahead. This really does appear to be a stunning results and it’s likely the team will have to take stock and hit pause elsewhere until cascadura is fully evaluated. Middle Herrera formation 600ft pay potentially ! Coho third party evaluation due to drop this week! Wowzer :)

Until coho and cascadura results are announced it seems nobody wants to price the upside in yet. Rest assured if these are as anticipated a £60-80m mcap beckons. The well results shared today just either aren’t understood or the recent BLOE and ECO half truths are weighing heavy until confirmation via RNS. We seem to be paying for the recent lack of transparency by many BOD this year. Let’s hope there are no surprises here!

Always loathe to buy on a morning jump but this is just huge news. The indication that they stopped short due to overpressure and had to adjust mud weights bodes well. It’s now all on flow results but the net pay in the middle section is hige