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Beat me to it. Getlucky m&g are reducing and now below 5%

If carapa proves Cretaceous light oil play then the recovery could be very swift. I’d expect total to step in and take Tullow out if SP does not react positively - 90p -£1.20 range would be a steal. Guyana is a company maker if starbroek trend extends into orinduik and kamaku. 45-50p is just too harsh a drop.

Exactly big bear. I’d like to see the money saved on the dividend payout ploughed into 3 Cretaceous drills. The value of a farm down of our 60% working interest in the success case will put all debt worries to bed! 90p within 6 months all day long here.

Clearly the recoverability and mobility of the resources needs complex evaluation. However it is clear that the STOOIP is a very very large accumulation. The thresholds for commerciality might easily be met with a simple appraisal of the Jethro channel the icing on the cake. This is not yet a prospect to walk away from but with the lighter all in the Cretaceous they may well postpone appraisal. We are talking about 55m of net pay here and possible 350-450mmboe.

El Gellboy. Indications on flow were encouraging as per Ian Clokes commentary. The partners haven’t engaged a third part consultant and heavy oil development expert for fun! The overpressure And quality of sandstone May yet make this extremely profitable to bring into production based on the favourable licence, fiscal terms. We simply do not know and if you do please explain how you have drawn your conclusion?

We have 60% stake in orinduik and operatorship. One successful poke in the Cretaceous and this will be £1+ in the blink of an eye. Keep the faith MrD it’ll come good

Many are focused on carapa result but analysis of Jethro based on data might add 150mmb to reserves...

Ian Cloke from Jethro discovery call transcript.

We caught multiple oil samples over the 50-55 meters of net pay. And they tested and flowed really , really well with minimum drawdown on the reservoir. They’re off to the lab now and we need to get that analysis back. However really pleased with the way the reservoir was flowing there.

Yes the 55m is one single sand body, 55 metres and I think 58 metre interval so 90% net to gross.

Not sure what the high sulphur content will mean but if there is demand and the discount is 6-8% the news of appraisal and development will be VERY material. Total and QP could move on a bid very quickly here.

It’s been a very odd turn of events since Jethro discovery. The initial conf call on the morning of announcement was quite bullish on the reservoir characteristics and flow to surface data with the broad but caveated consensus that appraisal and stand alone development potential looked strong. A review of production profile and demand for heavy oil and perhaps offtake agreements and logistics prior to decisions being made on appraising and testing of Jethro channel (200mmb upside !) seems to be taking an age. Exxon seem confident that hammerhead is commercial having sanctioned budget for 3 appraisal wells - of note is the lack of transparency on API gravity. IMO any update on analysis backed up by a review of market demands, perhaps MOU would be very material. All speculative but shows the upside is their to change fortunes very quickly.

Perceived weakness can change negotiations for sure. I’m more thinking that at current levels and if £1 to grab the lot is possible total or Cnooc may take out Tullow.

The unknown is what the current malaise does to strengthen the hand of total and CNOOC in changing the goal posts in the historical farm down agreement. They will be aware that the $900m farm down now trumps the current TLW Mcap. I do wonder how this will now play out...

Agreed dark knight. However with partners like Total and QP who will be privy to the analysis of Jethro and potential post carapa they would see a £1 takeover as peanuts for the upside across all licenses and development projects + 70k bopd. If carapa is a hit and proves to be light oil the rise could be significant as the SP weakness presents a short term opportunity window. We will see but Guyana could yet be a jewel in the crown. Certainly based on the conf call I joined post discovery at Jethro the reservoir quality and pressure was described as excellent on initial review. How they omitted the heavy oil characteristics and high sulphur content is beyond me. This is why the CEO and exploration director have walked the plank.

What happens if post analysis total and QP want to move forwards with appraisal and development? Hmmm BOD may have kitchen sinked this ...

Tullows plan has always been to sell a 21.57% and use the proceeds to fund their share of development costs retaining a circa 11% stake. Maybe they sell up for $1b and focus on bringing down debt pile and focusing on Guyana. Lots of possibilities but 40p is nowhere near fair value. Those selling at 40-50p have been robbed imo

Rest assured this will turn in time and is not going bust! Amazing that the uninvested choose to turn up and talk down all future prospects on a day like today. This will be old news in the not too distant future..

Just remember that the prize in the Cretaceous on both orinduik and kanuku is huge and could turn fortunes here in an instant. If , as I expect the production guidance is a kitchen sink worse case scenario and oil goes on a run the next update could restore some positive momentum. Walk away and return in March 2020.

Mr D I think Tullow have been rightly punished for the missed guidance and also for the lack of transparency post the oil discoveries in Guyana. They knew it was heavy oil for sure!

However there is always tommorow and some food for thought below.

They have kitchen sinked it and am pretty sure the guidance given is revised down for the new CEO to report over performance in future results updates. I’d expect FCF closer to $250m
- a substantial asset sale near term will make a difference for sure and I expect this in H1 2020
- Guyana. Jethro and joe are being evaluated and news on commerciality and size of resource could be extremely material. Remember TLW has 60% and could farm down for $$$
- Carapa results are due and positive news on Cretaceous could be hugely material. Look at the impact on Hess.

Lots still to play for and all is not lost!

If we remove cash and OBA value it appears geopark have picked up our onshore 2p reserves rather cheap. On top of this no upside for CPO5 which seems a given has been reflected in the offer accepted. The BOD have protected their options and own backsides here at the cost of shareholders. Rinse repeat - welcome to AIM

Laidback this is Tullow oil not desire and their is no comparison. Tullow produce 89k bopd. I’d also not clear if the Jethro discovery is uncommercial. The high pressure and quality rock may yet mean it supports development.

Don’t fret. You have to remember Gils English is imperfect but then again so is my french. That email is 100% legit for sure.

John I was not on the Morocco trip but managed to sell out and reduce my exposure due to BM tone and clarity on the geology and real COS. Here is a man regardless of the drill results whom is trustworthy. Unlike JP Who wanted to talk of analogous Algerian geology, monster connected field, extrapolate out the opportunity based on licence area (size of Belgium) etc etc. I sold out the morning of the RNS detailing this deal and am Glad I did. I have taken the financial loss on the chin but JP and his actions will never be forgotten. I would never invest in any business with an association to JP and make it a personal mission to inform any investors of his history. The man has misled and gone beyond what is acceptable IMO. As for CrudeHope he must have an agenda and I cannot believe he continues to defend JP the deal maker extraordinaire!