Member Info for tradeemup

Amazon? Facebook? Cmon get real. However I’m sure the likes of investec didn’t subscribe in the rump placing to sell for a 10% gain etc. Can see 25-30p but no more to creep over the 50% control line.

You beat me too it supersol. I have corrected my error

Apologies 15p could well be the floor here as it does depend on the bidders highest purchase price over the last 12 months. Could be a low ball takeout with tencent deal as the catalyst - let’s see how it plays out.

52 week high 32.5p which should be the floor.

Requirement for a mandatory offer: Where a bidder is interested in shares carrying 30% or more of the target’s voting share rights, the bidder must make a mandatory offer in cash at no less than the highest price paid during the preceding 12 months (often referred to as a "Rule 9 offer"). Mandatory offers can only be conditional on the bidder receiving acceptances that, together with any shares already held or acquired during the offer, would give the bidder and its concert parties more than 50% of the voting rights. As such, bidders cannot rely on other conditions to protect themselves.

I think this mirrors my experience JTD and Many ii’s Are balancing their risk exposure without a focus on the true value of a single equity. The lack of news on indico appraisal is of great concern as it feels like attributing a value or accepting an offer without clear line of sight or OWC is not in shareholder interests. Why sell up a world class onshore asset when we are 2-3 drills away from significantly increasing 1&2P reserves. I think the flow rates and light oil trend are significant but ONGC can’t stall forever without political pressure being brought to bear. I’d sooner wait a year that sell pre appraisal

Conservative assumptions

Jethro + extension = 250mmboe
Hammerhead = 75mmboe
ECO based on 15% interest = 48mmboe x $8 = $390m

Now add in 0.25c for prospective barrels in Cretaceous and 0.50c for prospective resources in tertiary (given Jethro result).

As you can see a £500m offer could arrive and look great value. Factor in success at Joe and all bets are off. ECO won’t walk off into the sunset for under $1bn if joe is a success.

Risk vs reward now looking very good. GLA

Davwal. From RNS below

Jethro-1 is the first Discovery on the Orinduik licence and comprises high quality oil bearing sandstone reservoir of LOWER Tertiary age. It encountered 180.5 feet (55 meters) of net high-quality oil pay in excellent LOWER Tertiary sandstone reservoirs which supports recoverable oil resources. The well has been cased, and is now awaiting further evaluation to determine the appropriate appraisal activity.

Hallmark all thoughts welcome and it is clear that the CPR did not delineate between upper and lower tertiary targets. However knowing Tullow and having joined the Monday investor call they are extremely cautious when it comes to external PR surrounding exploration both pre and post results. Tullow communicated a circa 20% COS pre drill and equally kept the dialogue around prospective resources grounded in the area of 100mmboe on the inv call. However the excitement and clarity over the quality of the sandstone and testing + oil samples collected throughout the interval was palpable and I believe the Jethro and channel extension will be a much much larger discovery post appraisal. The joe prospect is upper tertiary but the Channel and interpretation led to a consensus across TOTal Tullow and Kinley that the prospect should be expedited. Based on Jethro result this is good enough for me and answers on the cretaceous will be on the back burner until kanuku shallow water target is drilled and the data can be brought into narrow the field on the many orinduik targets. A discovery means prospective resources need to be under the lens when arriving at a valuation and Jethro has added weight to any negotiations should a major want in, EVEN in the event Joe is a duster. This is as good as it gets but we all need to exercise patience

Which exceeded expectation and many are taking profit. I can’t speak to others financial situation but it appears clear that the game has begun. Assuming a suitor at this stage pays $8 for proven barrels and $50c pb for prospective resources then a $500m takeout might be approved today. With each successful drill the value prop changes and QP and TotAl know this only too well. We got the dream result and this is time to hold your nerve imo. Each to there own but $500m is pocket change to our existing partners or other majors......

I second that maverick. One huge sidetrack please waiter. Lol

At 500m at 10% is 50m at 15% is 7.5m - all good but not a massive driver to a market cap over £100m.

I disagree Sankeys a discovery that adds 7m barrels of 2p reserves to ECO is material. This is before any exploration. BTW aid think 500m is conservative.

Haha schooled is indeed the right term.

http://www.abcmaritime.ch/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/KACEY.pdf

Oil. I won’t sell but find the large sells post QP news unnerving and am sharing my thoughts. I have held since IPO for the record. All thoughts welcome but your sell recommendation is unwelcome

Unnerving to see £108k and £143k sells IMO. Would total dilute if preliminary data was positive. I suppose we have to summise that this deal has been in the making for many weeks & the capex outlay to production is significant. However I’m feeling a little unsettled by the news ..

No disclosure. Wonder what the $13m farm in looks like based on value Qatar attributes to 10% stake. Gil in the main has been great but the total deal at the time and with hindsight looks weak. Plenty of value providing it’s not a duster...

Regardless of flow rates the continuation of light oil trend is IMO extremely positive. As highlighted by JW light oil is in high demand due to heavy oil trend which includes Llanos 34 block. The value to geopark would be extremely significant, particularly to pick up the block where it has shown operational excellence and to acquire prior to the big reveal in terms of appraisal drilling would be expedient. 35-40p takeout is achievable.

JP2000 for both indico and mariposa with the limited data available we have a guide from the company and independent 3rd party of Reserves.::

Amerisur Resources plc (LON:AMER) told investors that preliminary findings of an independent reserves report indicate that the producing Indico-1X well proves around 22.7mln barrels of oil. Meanwhile, the reserves report also identified 2.9mln barrels of reserves at the Mariposa area.

I dare say that as with mariposa where the initial estimate was 2.8m barrels and this now remains despite nearly 2 years of production that indico reserves are underestimated. As such selling the company without appraisal drilling for anything under 30p is tantamount to fraud IMO.

Given the 2p reserves attributed to indico and huge upside any bid under 30p needs to be declined and promptly. Without the appraisals, remembering there is still no OWC any sale is short sighted. ONGC will be best placed to assess but as an example 2.8m barrels were attributed to mariposa but the well has been on stream for over a year and it appears reserves were grossly underestimated. 30p is a steal but will possibly be accepted by the herd. Look at llanos 34 and the performance of the CPO5 wells vs geopark block and light oil characteristics observed and it’s clear geopark will be all over this IMO.