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i understand the share price is in the toilet and there are a lot of ****ed off investors, me included, but can we get a couple of things straight.
1. croda is still there and hasnāt changed until an rns says so. tw can say things like he hopes it comes good, or itās a binary bet, which is ridiculous as it implies we have croda and nothing else. the fact is, it is still 100% happening until official channels say otherwise.
2. we have a 15-16 month runway of cash as of last month, not including increasing sales of axis, or the just launched modi products being sold right now in six countries with a sales force of over 1200 people. now if soh says he forecasts Ā£1m in revenue in year one for ingredient sales, in one country (india) with a sales force of 175+, what figure would you put on multiple products being sold in six countries (including india) with a sales force of 1200+?
i understand and totally agree mistakes have been made, but the science is still the science and everything is still intact, as difficult as it is, i suggest looking at the facts good and bad rationally and leaving emotion and anger to one side.
Bear, TW is wrong. SA stated last month they had enough cash for 15-16 months and the acquisitions more than pay for the financing facility. From rns 30/11 "Any targets which the Group is interested in purchasing will be accretive from a revenue and earnings perspective, and thus reduce the operating cash burn, with the goal of the Group in the next 12-18 months to becoming a cash generating entity.ā
The Modi products have launched, I haven't included that or growing Axis sales.
Bear, TW has lost the plot on this one, I wouldn't listen to a word he says on sbtx anymore. Let me give you an example.
In his recent interview with SOH and per the opti rns (27/2/24) Soh says
Late-stage discussions with a large publicly listed pharmaceutical company in India for a launch of SlimBiomeĀ® containing products in India with forecast sales for OptiBiotix in Y1 of Ā£1.2m and Y5 of Ā£6.7m. This is a significant opportunity as the partner is looking to make a substantial investment in marketing to establish SlimBiomeĀ® as a major brand in India.
Now TW has a nice chat and a laugh with soh and asks him to explain the Ā£1.2m to Ā£6m then moves on, all good.
To summarise opti deal.
Late stage discussions, fantastic!
Ā£1.2m year one, excellent!
Ā£6.7m year five, amazing!
Significant opportunity, wonderful!
Now let's compare the Modi deal that sbtx has.
No discussions, it has actually launched in fact they brought the launch forward, whatever!
Not just in India but six countries including India, not interested!
Being sold by over 1200 sales people, dont care!
I have had discussions with TW and told him to wait for forecasts before commenting, but no, his mind is set, the opti deal has amazing potential, the sbtx deal is shyte. His hatred for SA has blown his head.
Firstly, well done Elric, you called it right.
Aquae, you make a very good argument for how good this Derma deal could be, I agree completely, I await the forecasts with excitement. In time I think investors will be very happy about this acquisition, we havenāt owned it two minutes and now we know modi isnāt included in forecasts, what next?
TW will never give SA credit because he has nailed his colours to the mast, i think that will come back and bite him on the ass, in fact it already has! I believe SA has played a blinder. I look forward to the next few months.
PGlancy, you are always welcome back from the dark side ;-)
Aquae, the problem with TW is he is unwilling to see the possibility that the Modi launch is not included in the forecast. As we are on the same page and believe it isnāt, he has left himself wide open to looking like a prize tool! His red mist towards SA has clouded his judgement.
This is fantastic news, we dont have all the facts, so to judge at this point is stupid. Maybe it was the only option at the time and the opportunities that Derma brings was worth some short term pain. Things change, sometimes you have to roll with it.
I also note he used the word "accelerated" re the launch, maybe a suttle hint.
Stuart Ashman, CEO of SkinBioTherapeutics said: "We met the CLG team today and have come to an amicable agreement around the Facility and next steps. We believe this is the right decision for the Company. In the meantime, we are very busy integrating the recently acquired Dermatonics, the accelerated Modi/Dermatonics product launch in the Asia, Middle East and Africa regions, and completing the participant study for the acne programme which has generated very positive interim results. We anticipate further updates in the coming weeks in the lead up to the HY results in March."
Aquae, I agree with you, I dont believe this is factored in to the forecast. From the rns 25/1 "Geographically, Dermatonics' products are available in the UK, Europe (Portugal, Spain), Baltics, and Vietnam.ā No mention of the rest of Asia, Middle East or Africa. I think this is a brilliant deal.
I admire you optimism thinking TW will re visit his calculator. Dont hold your breath!
Elric update
https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-9e5?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Thomas, let me get this right, because TW has endured far worse that makes it ok for Elrics wife to pick up a death threat aimed at her husband, but you sympathies! What kind of a person are you? And bravo to TW who still holds his shares after telling everyone to sell and then lambasting SA today again without getting his facts correct, yes, bravo that man.
thomas, elric got a death threat posted through his letterbox from a scumbag lowlife, unfortunately his wife picked it up and she is extremely upset and he is extremely angry about it to say the least. he is staying away from this ******* **** hole for awhile and i dont blame him one bit.
The stock available on Amazon now is AxisBiotix own stock, the same stock that services the AxisBiotix website. Amazon Prime stock has run out, that is why you cant currently get next day delivery through Amazon Prime.
I found this research paper from 2021 which has just been updated in November 23, it mentioned Sederma and this quote,
"In the same way, the administration of a probiotic strain of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) was demonstrated to prevent the development of skin tumors thanks to the activity of its lipoteichoic acid (LTA), a component of the Gram-positive bacteria cell wall. In a murine model, LTA decreased UV-induced skin immunosuppression and thus significantly reduced UV-induced skin tumor growth [74]."
As our lysate is Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG, maybe the trials are to do with suncreams and skin cancer?
I dont understand why you would do a clinical (in-vivo) trial on cosmetics unless it had some medical application. They had already done the In-vitro and ex-vivo studies so something has come out of left field for them to feel the need for a full blown trial. Maybe someone can educate me.
Is trial and study the same?
Definition: Clinical trials are interventional studies and involve investigational medicinal products, whereas clinical studies can include both interventional and non-interventional studies but do not involve investigational medicinal products.
Update from the Langtons, so if you can afford just under 10p a day, well worth a read!
https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-5a0
Phat. you are entitled to your view but to say "only thing this has is Croda" a very silly statement. Am I happy where we are, of course not, but I see things differently to you.
As regards your binary bet, you need to get some education. A binary bet gives you roughly the same outcome either side (less your spread/commission).
Hereās a working example: the binary betting market for the FTSE 100 is quoted with a spread of 48-51, the interval representing the brokerās commission portion on the transaction. If a trader thinks the FTSE will have a positive day, he could ābuy the spread at 52 at a rate of Ā£1 per point. If the market moves up by 1 point on the day, the trade will be closed at 100, representing a profit of Ā£48 (100-52 x Ā£1). If the market closes 1 point down on the day, the loss will be Ā£52 (52-0 x Ā£1). Note that even if the market moves up or down by 20 points on the day, or even 200 points, the binary bet will deliver the same return. The trader is merely taking a position on the movement of the market.
Croda as we stand today is anything but a binary bet, are you suggesting that if Croda comes good it is only worth 12p to the upside?
"The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision," Helen Keller.
Good luck with investments you do hold.
Well the project has started and we have a 15 month cash runway, so, if what SA has in store goes to plan we will not need any more funds. So he has took some dilution now to acquire assets so he doesn't have to dilute next year for working capital. As he says, what if, what if, what if. It's very easy to criticise a plan when we dont have all the facts, let's see what the next acquisition brings. This is a very strong start.
Looks like Croda are pumping some money into our area.
https://www.simplyhired.co.uk/job/8Z46qekjn1U-biCAbhfpR37s7sRmZV2bAX7yuI67RCDhoypJww-Nzg