Member Info for Toukankahmoon

Flippineck

I truly believe you are right. In fact I’ve made no secret of the fact that I think the deal with Novartis is already agreed in principle and just awaits good P2 results.

I was just trying to list possible reasons why SP is where it is and IMHO what needs to happen to change things.

But I still have sour taste in my mouth from a large loss I had in my early days of investing. The company had developed a revolutionary gearbox and a bus manufacturer and a tractor manufacturer did eventually license it. But the major car manufacturers just ignored it until the technology was overtaken by other advances.

What are we expecting to happen that will lift the SP?

1. PIs probably don’t have enough to invest right now

2. IIs are cautious and don’t regard the small number of results in the safety clinical trials so far as convincing.

3. CC has said that the offers from BP aren’t acceptable but expects that results from P2 will convince them.

4. FDA obviously haven’t a clue because they don’t even understand why it is that collateral damage is virtually nonexistent. Again hopefully P2 early results will convince them. Furthermore we shouldn’t underestimate how hard it is for a tiny newcomer to break into the establishment. Important figures won’t want to believe that they’ve been blind sided with such a phenomenal breakthrough. Also there will be influential people in FDA who have close ties with BP both directly and through academic sponsorship. I would like to think that decision makers are impartial but human nature is such that people have their own agendas and it is easy to slow committees’ decision making.

On top of that:

5. Avacta are being coy about arm 2 results

6. AVA6103 has effectively put a time limit on AVA6000’s useful life and yes I know it’s a long way off but it will still have a bearing on what BP will want to pay for it.

7. We need cash to develop the pipeline.

So it doesn’t surprise me we are at 50p or thereabouts. I don’t expect to rise much above that for 6 - 12 months depending on P2 results.

GLA

I have just had a personal warning to keep on subject

The weird thing is that my post complaining about it being deleted has itself been deleted

WelshF

How many years does it take for them to ask for it to be rechecked? And how long does that take?

What actually does rechecking mean? Rerun the trials? What? Independent analysis of all the medical notes? What?

Demo123

If I had £1 for every time that or a similar sentiment has been posted on this BB then I would have made up for my loss on my investment in the actual share. Often the claim has been made when the SP was higher than 150p and where are we now.

So after all these years and amazing success in the mouse trials and excellent safety profile in clinical trials the FDA are in disbelief??????

You mean they don’t understand the mechanism of our world beating platform???????

If that’s the case then Avacta have done a pretty poor job in explaining to the FDA how it is that there are few side effects and no wonder progress has been so slow. Perhaps now the FDA will not be so overawed by what they see as massive amounts of doxorubicin being pumped into patients and realise it’s safe.

Makes you wonder how much influence the leading oncologists in Bug Farmer have within the FDA doesn’t it?

Watching

You will have to try harder than that to get the SP up to your self declared exit price😄

Hurrah

Looks as if we might bounce in which case next stop 55 or may be even 65?

Watching

Give us some irrefutable proof of who these paid disrupters are or is this just more of your made up lies

I still find it frightening that, even though we are still in P1 with our first drug, so many people regard this investment as a “dead cert “.

It wouldn’t be the first time that the big players have frozen out the new minnow until minnow runs out of money and they can buy IPO cheaply or they find a way to replicate the product without infringing IPO.

But in this case it’s simples there waiting for proof of efficacy on a significant number of patents. Jeez we haven’t finished P1 yet.

Only think BoD need to consult PIs if they are going to recommend a deal. And only then if they cannot get a majority amongst themselves plus IIs.

Someone on here will know. I can’t be bothered to ask ChatGPT at this time of night 🤣

IMHO

The interest in Avacta and hence the SP is because they kicked the can along the road yet again. AVA6000 being downplayed (why can’t we have P1a results?) When is P1b first cohort actually going to start dosing.

Then clinical trials for next generation not due to start until 2026. Yes i know these things take time. But at moment better to wait and see what happens in 2025 when future is more secure. Meanwhile invest in other things.

This is what I think BP’s view is. Me? I’m stuck holding on to what I’ve got neither buying or selling.

GLA

Icecool

You are one of the more rational posters on here. I have no intention of dragging up old posts. Or, unlike some folk, taking a few words out of context just to score points. And my view regarding Avacta is in years not months.

Icecool

I’m agreeing with you and you still want a f*cking argument.

My frustration is for the patients dying. For a long time I have been trying to remind people about being too bullish about getting a return on our investment here. Until recently you have been one of the worst for ramping up people’s expectations. I won’t bother to paste some of your previous predictions because I’m not after a row. In fact I wish all the aggression on here would stop.

Watching

What have I posted that is inaccurate that you disagree with?

In an earlier post you said that you intend to sell up asap. That pretty much explains the incessant unfounded ramping to get the SP up to your 140 exit level. Better hope P2 results are good enough to get us a partner. Even that means you’ll still be here in 12 months time

Icecool

That is the most frustrating thing. The theory of the science is amazing. What has been achieved with AVA6000 is very promising. Future generations architecture is mind boggling and seems to get over the weakness in AVA6000. But it all takes time and costs a lot of money.

I’m not impressed neither surprised.

P1b recruiting but not started

Clinical trials for first two pipeline drugs targeted for 1H26 and 2H26. Given performance so far we can probably add at least 6 months to those dates.

I don’t imagine that there will be much upward movement in SP until P2 starts to show unequivocally good results which at this rate might just get before end 2025.

Tim

. . . but when?