Member Info for Toukankahmoon

Energy

It’s not financial it’s about giving investors skin in the game.

BV

Don’t be a prat anyone who has read my posts will know I’ve been backing Novartis as the suitor since Xmas. It’s just when I wrote Novartis in full my posts were being deleted. Try harder to discredit me if that’s your main purpose on here.

Cj62

On your timescale when do you think arm 2 will complete and therefore P1b start (after some analysis and trial design and recruitment maybe). Do you see P2 within 12 months?

Yeah market as thick as mince

Ice

Yes it is excellent progress BUT it is what was expected hence no SP reaction.

Wynd

I agree with a lot of your analysis but as I have said we don’t know the shape of “the deal” so expecting the SP to rocket is a bit rampy for you 🤣🤣🤣

Ice

You are right. I am just pointing out that Al leaving is not such a wonderful event as some might have us believe. I actually felt safer with him on the BoD. And I gave my reasons why I don’t see him as a a “charlatan” or worse. He just got caught up in the hype like the rest of us. Personally I think that it is criminal that the trials could not take a larger step in dosage in each round given the low side effects seen and knowledge of how the targeting mechanism works. Perhaps not in someones’s interests?

Regarding a fair TO price: that is impossible to calculate. I’m an old fashioned investor. I invest in profitable companies that give me a high dividend because that is what investing means to me not taking a punt on a good short term rise in SP. Admittedly you can do that for some companies whose SP has been temporarily depressed by circumstances beyond their own control. And I have done that from time to time. Also some stocks are cyclical but making money on those is difficult when fees and tax are taken into account.

As I’ve said I do expect to make some money here but not for a long time. Any profit Avacta make on their own will be needed to fund the pipeline. So we are back to guessing what BP are willing to pay for a TO and at the moment that seems to be not a lot.

Time will tell and for me Avacta is a HOLD but my investment money is going into dividend earning investments at the moment and has been for well over a year (apart from the recent 50p offer of course)..

Except that ppg didn’t explain their reasoning and why should they because £20 prediction is a wind up.

Before the forced offer we were floating along at just over the £1 mark with some IIs on board. I don’t think they or the BoD would be happy with less than the equivalent of £1 per share. Conversely the current SP is less than 50p so I don’t think that the favoured suitor would want to pay much more than that. That is why a 50:50 split is possibly the fair approach. And will get approval from the shareholders when coupled with a strong recommendation from the board who see a much better future as part of Novartis. CC doesn’t want to join a company where she doesn’t feel comfortable and risk finding herself out on her ear in 12 months. Obviously as time progresses and improved results emerge then the TO price will increase. But I think both parties want a quick solution so that large resources can be brought to bear asap and get this and the pipeline monetised asap.

Anyhooo. what did you think of my suggestion on why the anticipated 4 cohorts then stretched to 7. ?

Gje306

Sorry only just got back from pub

You are right this is just my analysis of the past two years and a prediction.

I think that Al’s problem was the same as mine - the tech is so good it has to be a winner. But it is too revolutionary and the procedural system doesn’t allow for such a targeted treatment. Al believed that after cohort 1 had shown unbelievable safety he would be allowed to increase dose levels in much larger steps anticipating an end to P1a at cohort 4. But of course he wasn’t allowed to do that. Then of course patients weren’t selected to show efficacy (it was a safety trial after all) so anti tumour activity was variable and didn’t meet the hype that preceded it. Safety alone wasn’t enough to secure BP licensing of the platform and Al was quickly losing credibility.

I believe Novartis had already been “selected “ as a partner - see my previous posts for reasons. But hadn’t seen enough to commit hence move to arm 2 to improve the results and parachuting in CC and Simon to guide things through for a TO when arm 2 delivers convincing results. Of course Al had to go because he never wanted a TO. We possibly misread his “don’t worry about funding “ comment because he already knew he was going by then and Novartis has all the resources needed.

However Avacta did need funds to show they could reach the start of P2 at least. With Novartis standing in the wings the offer price was immaterial provided it realised enough cash to get Avacta to the point where Novartis would TO. The current SP is below 50p and unlikely to move up much until end of arm 2. In earlier posts I’ve given my reasons why there will be no bidding war so given we were trading at just over £1 before the “forced” sale I see a TO at that price as fair and I think Novartis will want it to be half cash (so investors can get their offer price back) and half shares in Novartis so they can reap some of the benefits of the success of Avacta.

OK. This is itotal conjecture but has its basis in fact and is just as valid as “huge BP takeover tomorrow £20 by the close” and other such fantasies.

Harchris

Al was forced out but not because of the fire sale at 50p. That was a condition imposed by Novartis for securing necessary funds to carry us through to the TO. The writing was on the wall when they parachuted in CC and Simon to manage the deal through.

The SP is NOT all about the science.

IIs won’t invest because they know what is coming. In my post “careful what you wish for” I predicted IMHO the next step after arm2 results have been analysed and that is:

Novartis will buy us for 50p per share plus one Novartis share for every 160 Avacta shares we own. And at the current SP that is a good deal.

Bella

Yes yes yes

Great news and a relief but still aways to go.

More circumstantial evidence to back up my prediction that we will become part of Novartis. So future should be assured though no bidding war.

PLEASE STOP POSTING THAT RESULTS VARY DEPENDING ON FAP LEVELS. The results so far clearly show that there is no correlation between high and mid FAP levels in the TME and efficacy (even though it is a safety trial). This is one of the most significant outcomes so far as stated by CC.

And finally why was my post predicting an RNS today deleted 🤣🤣🤣

Doh!

Why do you think I’ve kept posting that our suitor for a TO is Novartis????? And that parachoin CC and Simon is part of the deal before Avacta becomes a subsidiary of Novartis.

Bein

He obviously hasn’t got his point across to you. He isn’t saying the company has been run appallingly. He is saying that arm2 results are pivotal. But some folk on here just love to misinterpret a post so they can have an argument.

Bfdi

Very fine point but at the end of the day it was a flop after it had been trumpeted as a world beater. And the affimer seemed to have lost its way.

No the LFT was a very different prospect to AVA6000 but sadly Avacta still seems to revel in ambiguity.

Wyn

When there is no news that’s what happens. They have to console themselves in some way

Selling at this price is almost as foolhardy as adding.

Every six months or so I think “next RNS will make it clear whether this is a good investment or not” but guess what it never does. I’m not selling but I am investing in some solid stocks rather than risking throwing in more good money after bad here. If it comes good eventually then I will have made enough, if it doesn’t I won’t have lost a fortune.

GLA

Novartis as the TO company. That’s a good call. I wish I’d thought of that😈

Mainly because of you Watching. You are obviously not invested and like sh*t slinging and drawing naive investors into losing a lot of money on a “sure fire investment that is cheap as chips”🤣🤣🤣🤣

CTSFO

. . . . but it does work as effectively in high and mid FAP tumours. That is a major result from the clinical trials so far. Excellent.