Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Understanding the Hamas attack on Israel:
Iran is aiming for a confrontation with Israel and the US. The success of Russia in Ukraine is encouraging Iran to undo decades of hostile US foreign policy in the Middle East. A bankrupt US Govt has just been invited to another war.
The timing is opportunistic. The US Govt is forced to print trillions of USD as it struggles to raise new debt. Another war would lead to a significant increase in inflation and an accelerated economic decline of the US.
If Iran mines the Strait of Hormuz the global energy crisis would become critical. The Biden administration has used the majority of US oil reserves to stabilize domestic oil prices. Iran can increase the pain for the US Govt significantly.
Ukraine is turning into a major defeat for the US and NATO. A new front in the Middle East would accelerate the US decline. The US Govt and its western partners simply cannot afford it. Russia and China would benefit most. Iran understands this and is playing into the hands of its partners.
Energy, Bitcoin , agricultural land , gold , silver are my personal choices to play this , I certainly wouldn’t want to have to much exposure to real estate, banking , general retail or food producers if this situation develops in the way it appears to be headed.
DYOR
I shall be attending the Amsterdam Bitcoin conference this week , most, but by no means all of the big North American miners will be in attendance either giving seminars or exhibiting, last year I got to speak to several as I privileged to have a whale pass as part of the package offered by the organisers for the work I did onsite, this year they haven’t been quite so generous I just have a general admittance ticket, that said I still hope to get to speak to the miners in the hope of gaining a few clues about their near term future.
As you may have guessed from my posts English isn’t my native language however if anyone else is going to be at the conference I’d be happy to show them around the city and ensure they got to Westergas without any problems. Message me to make the necessary arrangements.
Quantum computing threat to BITCOIN
The Bitcoin community and developers are aware of the potential threat posed by quantum computing and can consider upgrading the cryptographic algorithms used in the Bitcoin protocol to be quantum-resistant. This would require a consensus among the Bitcoin network participants to implement such changes
In summary, while quantum computing has the potential to threaten the security of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the future, it is not an immediate concern. The development and widespread deployment of quantum computers capable of breaking current cryptographic systems may take many years or even decades. In the meantime, researchers are actively working on upgrading quantum-resistant cryptography already written into bitcoin’s protocol and the Bitcoin community can make additional protocol changes if it’s necessary to adapt to this evolving threat landscape..
I’m afraid to say this is one of the reasons I have major reservations about FG’s claims, everyone who’s anyone in the bitcoin community very notably Adam Back say that it’s not possible to preempt a new block’s calculation , it is however possible to design more powerful machines that are more energy efficient thus giving more brute force at a lower energy cost but essentially everyone begins on same start line for each new block .
Have QBT developed software capable of doing what the industry including Adam Back believes to be impossible, therein lies the whole investment thesis folks
The current SP is the valuation the MARKET is putting on company , therein lays the opportunity, should you feel the market is incorrectly valuing QBT either under what you believe to be it’s current or future value or over valuing the stock then there’s tools available to take advantage of the market’s miss pricing.
The opportunity to sit on the sidelines and await developments is also an option, an option that may cost you buying in at the absolute bottom but there again may save you from overpaying should favorable news not ensue .
To be frank the term Do your own research has rarely been more appropriate when considering QBT as an investment.
GLA
Fantastic news
Let’s hope wider market sentiment picks up a little which should encourage retail back into the market and drive small caps with a good growth story to more realistic valuations. It’s been a long time in coming but we look set to push higher from here .
Absolute McGinner thank you for the response, most insightful ant thought provoking.
The reason for using ARB’s figures and history is very simply that they’re the company most often used in comparison to QBT by posters on this BB and also probably the best known of the very few listed Crypto related businesses on the London markets , so entirely reasonable to mention them wouldn’t you say
Putting a forward valuation on QBT can at this stage only be an exercise of pure speculation,I note some extremely optimistic price targets along with some more pessimistic predictions.
Let’s talk a few cast iron facts .
When ARB ran it had circa 359m shares in issue, so its peak valuation was £1.29bn £3.60 was the peak inter day . Since then there’s been significant dilution.
If QBT was to achieve a £3 so that would imply a company valuation of £4.5bn as there would be circa 1.5bn shares in issue ( around 300m additional shares due to options @ 5p & 10p been triggered) is that valuation possible? Well with no real comparable company listed it’s hard to say , what we do know is speculative bull bubbles tend to pump the good bad and ugly . The nearest listing company I can find to QBT ( and it’s not really that close a comparison) had a peak of just shy of $3bn but it must be pointed out they where generating profit mining BTC , holding bitcoin as well as selling mining rigs and mining software solutions .
Until we get some hard facts regarding products , addressable market, contracts and orders, folk putting price targets to the are I’m afraid just opening themselves up to ridicule.
To the downside there’s a little more clarity as we have historically charts to give an indication of the potential lows . What we can also say is there’s an awful lot of resistance to cross before price discovery to the upside, @ very least 4.5p needs to be taken out as the local high ( last 3years ) .
ARB bounced around in the 3-6p range for many months then pushed to the next major resistance of 11p before blasting through the previous ath of 19p in one huge move to 22p , from that point there was clear blue sky for price discovery.
Anything is possible when the FOMO kicks in but enthusiasm should be always be tempered with a degree of reality.
GLA
I see the term traders used on here reasonable frequently, often in a derogatory way , when you sit back and think about it we are all traders, the only distinguishing fact is individuals time horizons .
So let’s look at it a little more objectively, I don’t think any professional or even semi professional short term trader would consider QBT as an option. Firstly there simply isn’t the liquidity , on average less than 1% gets traded daily meaning anyone wanting to actually short term trade ( benefit from say a 15% move ) would disproportionately move the market with the volume of shares they’d need to buy or sell to make any such trade viable. Then when we look at the market makers spread which often exceeds 10% it’s another reason for traders to avoid QBT . As I indicated earlier the company have been on my watch list for 2 1/2 years , one of the tools I uses to make investment decisions is to watch the short positions, I check every Monday and Wednesday religiously and I’m 99,9% certain in the time I’ve watched there’s not been a short opened in Quantum .
I’d be pretty confident that no serious traders with the finance to actually influence QBT sp are at work here , far more plausible is the market makers move the price around In order to generate a market, don’t forget MM want a liquid market in order to generate their margin, they actually care very little if the sp goes up or down .
Just my thoughts, I could be wrong .
GLA
In the overwhelming majority of times it’s not messages on BB’s , share price fluctuations or even short term news that loses investors money, it is in fact themselves that costs them .
In general retail investors only scratch the surface when looking into a company and that business’s addressable market. If you have genuinely deep dived into an investment thesis and looked at the market the company intends to trade within, you’ve understood the financial position ( and the future potential both positive and negative) , you have looked at the trading range of the shares and positioned accordingly then you really shouldn’t be to concerned or elated at short term movements in sp in fact if you are correctly positioned within a portfolio a sp decline should be viewed as an opportunity to DCA likewise a spike higher should be used to to top slice profits, the same applies if you are bearish on a company, a spike up is a chance to increase a short position and a decline is the opportunity to take profit.
I will not get involved in personal spats as they don’t reflect well on anyone however I will say having kept an eye on QBT for approaching 2 1/2 years it’s clear SOME contributors here simply haven’t dived deep enough into bitcoin mining to understand the capx cycle and the vast variations in business models employed by miners .
Personally I’ve a price I would feel reasonably comfortable in adding and a price I would look to take profits, however the wider macro environment and the slow pre halving drift down ( something that plays out each cycle) means there’s absolutely no rush to allocate more funds to bitcoin related companies in the immediate period. I’ve buy orders in over a multitude of companies should the ETFs get approved earlier than I expected, my core long term holdings remain in place but I remain comfortably on the sidelines until the market turns.
For those looking for the current hot sector may I suggest looking at nuclear, but proceed with caution at we have already had a nice run .
GLA
I firmly believe that the halving / business cycle will lift all crypto related stocks , and given on the uk market there are only around 10 ways to play crypto via listed investments all things been equal a reasonable amount of money will hunt out those opportunities.
I think one of the major issues with nano and small cap stocks currently is the small retail investors with their £500 a month to invest are simply not in the market, we can see this by the lack of liquidity across Aim , remember institutional investors find it difficult to deploy funds into anything with the sub £50m mk cap .
Personally I think FG is keeping the pot simmering until the halving knowing money will enter the space , push the sp up allowing for options to be cashed in , at that point QBT would have a £50m- £100m Mk cap it would be at that point genuinely transformational news would attract big investors and put the sp beyond the 10p options price .
I remain very much open minded, I see many red flags , I see positives.
What I absolutely know is for the company to achieve the sp some tout QBT needs to revamp its website , social media and communication dramatically, When you are playing the Tech game those things are a must not an inconvenience.
GLA
Https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-ends-its-bitcoin-mining-chip-series-2023-04-18/
As others may or may not be aware intel stopped production of its mining chip 6 months ago or more . I believe there were originally only a handful of publicly listed miners who placed orders.
Of those companies that definitely received the intel chip , one developed its own design rigs to accommodate the intel chips . That company is regularly one the most efficient BTC miners but it has to be said not by to large a margin.
Two of the other companies have suffered major setbacks to their businesses in the last 12months and both lag the market regarding production efficiency.
I normally try to shy away from commenting specifically on QBT as people tend to be far to polarized in comments rather than been factually objective, on this occasion I will say I find it extremely difficult to believe a listed company would hand over rigs for testing. Would Ferrari allow testing of a new part during a F1 race ?
I can’t really understand why QBT hasn’t utilized hoisting facilities offered by several miners to test the methods, this would be cost effective and very quickly provided unequivocal answers that would be transparent for all the interested parties to see .
There is another possibility and that is that QBT are speaking to unlisted miners of which there are many in North America and Asia .
I remain on the sidelines other than a small holding which I retained following the sale of the overwhelming majority of my shares during the oct 21 melt up .
Have a good day all .
Creo featured today in the Sunday Times’’s tips section, should at very least bring some extra awareness from the wider investor community and hopefully a tick up in SP
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/share-tip-innovation-puts-creo-medical-on-a-healthy-trajectory-d6dchlk83
QBT don’t appear to be in attendance at WDMS next weekend in Hong Kong which is a shame , I’d have thought it another opportunity to showcase there tech .
BITMAIN ( list of companies attending)
Link doesn’t seem to working
Go to bitmain.com , click on world digital mining summit and scroll to bottom of page for attendees.
Canaan have today launched their new Avalon made 14 series rig and Bitmain are rumored to be the new antminer s21 at the world digital mining summit given the lead times required for orders just about perfect timing from both companies to capture mining companies capex into the halving .
With respect Earl your time would be far better spent explaining POW virtues on Twitter or others social media, I think you’ll find you are preaching to the converted on here . We are very much aware POW current SP is a poor reflection of the companies inherent value.
I believe the Deutsche Bank news is helping BTC today .
A word of caution though there are a few hurdles coming up in the next few weeks that could put some pressure on Bitcoin - Mt Gox release , binance is looking shaky to me and the sale of FTX assets. All will flood the market with Bitcoin. There are numerous bullish events coming up as well but overall the balance of probability suggests that we continue a slow grind down in the short term . I still expect multiple ETF approvals as early as Christmas but more likely in March which should really spark interest prior to Aprils expected halving.
Just to be clear I’m cautious short term and wouldn’t be totally surprised to see $19k retested medium to long term I consider Bitcoin a core holding .
It’s going up forever Laura
Steve you can only possibly support one team with a response like that .
MOT
This article effectively highlights why speculation on miners cost base can never be accurate, crypto mining is extremely divisive and complex, most miners have multiple income streams ranging from Data centres right through to fruit and veg production.
So when claims are made about energy usage/ cost per BTC / efficacy it should be taken with a pinch of salt . I’m aware of some miners having energy fixed at 1c in some of their facilities whereas others are paying upto 8c , but even that isn’t straightforward as there’s often curtailment subsidies available to those paying a higher initial cost for power .
Sebastian on YouTube has arguably the best analysis although Anthony on Twitter is good although personally I don’t feel he takes all the variables into full consideration.
The current financial system relies on trust of naive population.
Bitcoin relies on mathematical FACT
Fact trumps Trust for all those who are actually awake .
Https://x.com/btctn/status/1692915599163183184?s=46
Would hep if I’d added the link !