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The short position in QBT is still open and equates to around 600k shares (.51%)
What I will say is look at what happened to Helium 1 (he1) in the last 7days , two funds short @ .7p shares dropped to .19p until a very flakey bit of news dropped, traders piled in and drove the price up 7x forcing the funds to close the shorts . My guess is however this will be a short lived rally, the shares had dropped from 40p to .19p LTH @ traders have bought in and I suspect will take profits in the not to distant future, the FOMO crowd will be left holding stock that has little if any true value. Guessing when the rise ends exactly is a fools game the could easily double from the current 1.45p but when the rug is pulled there will be a very sudden 50% fall .
Up to date short interest - https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B50P5B53/
We can pretty safely say it wasn’t a hack given how quickly they regained control of the account, far more likely someone released the draft of the authorization 24hours early , one thing is for certain Gary gensler’s position is now completely untenable given he’s made such a big play of protecting the public. Also noteworthy on how bitcoin spiked when the tweet was released, suggesting it certainly won’t be a sell the news as some have suggested.
Looks like we finally get the approval tomorrow .
Speculation that Bitcoin’s hard cap could change is rooted in two deeper misunderstandings about Bitcoin as a distributed, consensus-based network. Firstly, there is not one, but dozens or hundreds of versions of the Bitcoin source code. Every node in the Bitcoin network runs independent software that will reject any invalid blocks.
While many nodes run the latest version of Bitcoin Core, a significant number of nodes continue to run older versions and different implementations. Thus, while Bitcoin Core’s source code can be changed trivially, it is far more difficult to convince tens of thousands of nodes to adopt these changes.
Secondly, miners do not control the network or its rules. Miners produce new blocks and validate transactions. When miners submit a new block to the network, tens of thousands of nodes each independently verify this block, making sure it produces an appropriate amount of new bitcoin, includes a valid Proof-of-Work, and all transactions within the block are valid. Nodes will reject all blocks that violate these rules, meaning miners have no control over Bitcoin’s ruleset.
This theory has been validated by reality, when, in 2017, 95% of miners agreed to raise the block size limit in an attempt to allow Bitcoin to scale. Nodes and users however, refused this change and successfully forced miners to adopt an alternative scaling solution.
At any given moment we. Know exactly how many bitcoins have been mined and how many are yet to be mined making bitcoin the hardest asset on earth .
I do wish some contributors would take the time to actually understand bitcoin and it’s protocol rather than using Wikipedia and legacy media ( who’s paymaster s in Tradfi were anti Bitcoin until they realised it couldn’t be stopped) , the legacy media who have now become far more positive to BTC since the huge financial institutions have decided to embrace rather than fight. Bitcoin.
Just out of interest could the detractors Who appear to champion gold and even fiat give us the exact amounts of either in circulation and the amount yet to be mined / printed?
Personally I’d take very little notice of accounts on Twitter/social media claiming they have information about the approval/ denial of the ETFs , both the bullish and bearish stories this week have come from not particularly well informed sources ( no matter what they claim)
A far better indicator is the Bitcoin advertising been put out by the applicants, the listings on there respective web sites not to mention applications for listings on Nasdaq and other exchanges.
My GUESS is the SEC will approve today but likely it’ll be Monday when an announcement to markets are made to avoid an over weekend spike in Bitcoin price.
As always it’s better to follow signal than noise.
GLA
We should see a multiple Bitcoin ETFs approved in early January , my bias is for a significant initial rise on the news of approval then at least a 40% retrace from that spike , what we must remember is approval won’t mean instant buying, it’s my understanding that it will take upwards of 75days before the ETFs actually start buying, this will play in beautifully with the reduction in supply caused by the Halving set for April 24th . In normal cycles BTC goes up prior to the halving but tends to disappoint in the immediate aftermath only to really start rising around two months later . This time I suspect the price will continue to rise though the halving simply because there will be a huge squeeze on supply with billions of new dollars chasing a reduced supply and coins held buy LTH who understand the bitcoin thesis. As every cycle even during the bull run there will be significant drawdowns 30%40%50% are not uncommon, I expect at least 3 more nations to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender during 2024 , 2 or 3 more countries to confirm they are mining bitcoin, several more very large corporations to put bitcoin into there treasury. I also expect the FED to pump in huge amounts of cash into the system in Q2 which is bullish.
As for price targets, I see a lot of influencers making ever larger predictions, the maths suggest a far more conservative figure, my own target is $87k END OF YEAR 2024 , that is not the peak in 24 imo , you should also remember the high of the cycle tends to be 550-600 days after the halving so another double top is very possible.
Outside actually Bitcoin
Anglo American
Rolls Royce
KR1
Hive (Canada /nasdaq )
Cornerstone
Energy fuels (USA )
Are my picks .
I have large holdings in several bitcoin miners and uranium miners which I think will outperform the wider market in 2024 .
I will say 10 hours researching previous cycles will be time well invested, most ppl think they will sell out at the top , in my humble opinion trying to pick the top is pretty much impossible but you can identify price points to slice profit.
Just my thoughts and certainly not financial advice, DYOR
Happy new year , let’s hope it’s profitable!
jamie dimon (jp morgan ceo) & bitcoin:
jan. 23, 2014: 'bitcoin is a terrible store of value'
nov. 5, 2015: 'bitcoin will not survive'
jan. 20, 2016: 'bitcoin is going nowhere'
sept. 12, 2017: 'bitcoin is a fraud'
oct. 12, 2017: 'i am not going to talk about bitcoin anymore'
jan. 9, 2018: 'i regret making that comment'
oct. 30, 2018: 'i don't really give a **** about bitcoin'
sept. 21, 2022: 'i am a major skeptic on crypto tokens, which you call currency, like bitcoin.'
dec. 6, 2023: 'i have always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, etc. - if i were the government i'd close it down.'
dec. 29, 2023: 'blackrock, valkyrie name authorized participants including jp morgan for bitcoin etf'
ignor the noise, very often they’re doing exactly the opposite to what they tell the world.
bitcoin is inevitable.
Friday fun .
All indications are that multiple ETFs will be approved in early January ( the 8th being the most likely date) several of the applicants have launched advertising campaigns which suggests a strong degree of confidence on their behalf.
Some are in the camp that approved will be a sell the news event but when we look at the liquidity on exchanges it’s very clear LTH are not interested in selling BTC at $42k-$44k , still a huge percentage(85%) of ppl who’ve held coins for 12months + hodl . In a recent poll carried out by plan B over 80% of respondents said they wouldn’t consider selling their BTC for less than $250k , if this plays out I think we can actually expect a nice spike on ETF approval. But we must remember that it’s unlikely ETFs will actually start buying spot BTC for at least 75days witch could mean that initial spike been sold into by short term tourists, what we know for certain is the halving is coming in April meaning a dramatic cut in daily liquid supply finding its way to exchanges , although this is undoubtedly medium term bullish the halving has tends to short term disappoint .
Once again as Bitcoin gains interest Every man. And his dog makes price predictions, many of which are backed by very plausible mathematical calculations, folk would be wise to step back a little and take every prediction with a grain or three of salt . I have personal worked out a price target at which point I’ll start scaling out of my bitcoin related investments ( but not my actual bitcoin) others maybe wise to employ a similar stance because when the FOMO kicks in it’s not easy to make rational decisions to take profit.
I wish you all a merry Christmas , and propose a truce between the QBT bulls and Bears at least until trading on the market reopens .
Bitcoin fall is due to senator Elizabeth Warrens proposed bill banning crypto self custody in the USA , she’s claiming cryptos primary use is for criminal activity. The irony here is she’s a big advocate of big banks JPM in particular, that’s JPM who’ve paid $39bn in fines over the last 15 years for wrongdoing!
JPM whose CEO says he’d ban crypto yet has a crypto trading desk within his organization! JPM who’ve been labeled a criminal organization in a court of law.
Clearly there is some risk that this will pass into law however warrens record when either submitting or sponsoring legislation leaves grounds for optimism.
One thing is for certain if it passes Bitcoin will retrace significantly , should it fail to pass into law we could see a god candle .
Good luck senator Warren, you have picked a fight with something designed to be attacked and even if you do win you will be forever known as the person who drove a steak through the heart of democracy and freedom of speech in America.
BTFD .
Last week’s action in gold is something everyone should take notice of , on the open last Sunday night the price spiked to $2140 on huge Asian buying before the American banks stepped in to manipulate the price lower , although I personally think Bitcoin is a far better asset for the Digital age it can’t be denied that gold still acts as the canary in the coal mine sniffing out danger . The very fact nearly every central bank in the world with the exception of the US FED are net buyers of gold tells us that the trust in the global banking system and economies is breaking. It’s pretty common knowledge that the large US banks swamp the gold market with paper derivatives in order to keep the gold price far lower than its true value .
So what’s that got to do with Bitcoin ?well because bitcoin has a known fixed supply it’s not possible to sell more than actually exists and because bitcoin has an immutable ledger we can be 100% sure how many coins have been mined and how many are still to be mined . I believe this is a reason why the price action is grinding higher , without the corrections of previous cycles 30% to 50% drawdowns were previously quite common even in the bull runs , so far we’ve seen only minor pullbacks. It’s pretty clear the smart money understands the only answer to the financial crisis that’s bubbling away under the surface is to print trillions more in order to keep the Ponzi afloat a little longer thus diluting fiat currencies even further ( the US dollar has lost 97% of its value in the last 100years ) . More liquidity means assets go up , now more and more influential investors advocate BTC as part of a portfolio to hedge against the debasement of Fiat .
Very interesting that record numbers of call options are targeting $50k bitcoin by January, before we reach that level we have a battle on @ $47.5k , obviously there’s some resistance to overcome @ 45k , the bears are trying to hold $44k but this breakout looks to to have some momentum this evening. Personally I’d prefer to see us bounce around $42k-$45k for a week or two to build a bit of support but I suspect we’ll drive on with the anticipation of a January 5th-10th ETF approval.
Also worth noting the miners are hodling more of their monthly production further squeezing supply in exchanges .
Boooom $2bn of BTC shorts just Margin called and the vast majority liquidated!!!!
Gareth soloways army of $12k BTC bears taught a lesson , if you don’t understand the Bitcoin cycle you’re gonna get taken out .
There’s currently a record low of Bitcoin available on exchanges and a record amount of coins in strong hands . I’d like to see a week of consolidation now in the $38.5k-$39.5k range in order to build a strong base for a full on attack of $40k -$42k next weekend, given how few coins are available I’d be amazed to see a drop below $37.5k and certainly not surprised to see a pump above $40k earlier than next weekend.
I also expect to see gold challenge $2100 and the $ fall below 1.03 which will be bullish for Bitcoin.
Remember @$39.7k $2bn of shorts get liquidated, in fairness I thought the bears would put up a better defence of $39k . Should we break that $39.7k it effectively flings the doors wide open for $42k
Once again the halving tracker called the weekly direction of Bitcoin correctly !
As you will by now know I’m a huge fan o this method of predicting Bitcoin’s movement, it’s far more accurate than TA imo , but this week coming I think the halving tracker may fail . It predicts a fall in price probably in the 5-7% range which given the strength of the November move is entirely plausible. My gut feeling however is the growing speculation of ETF approval will see bitcoin test $39.7k ( which will be very strong resistance) IF bitcoin can break $39.7k the bears are in full retreat with $42k for Christmas very possible.
Should the halving tracker prove correct next week a retrace to$35k is possible.
Several statements released in the last hour suggest that the ETF approval will come between 5th&10th Jan , with the SEC very likely to approve multiple providers all at once….. I’ve little doubt they’ll be a sell off after an initial bounce in price as Traders take profits, but what those who’s Bitcoin knowledge is limited to MSM FUD don’t understand is that LTH such as myself won’t sell our coins @ $100k , $250k or even $500k , we know the Tradfi system is dying and we understand the dangers of CBDC .
A couple of weeks back I suggested that in the coming 12months up to 3more nations will recognise Bitcoin as legal tender, well that forecast has taken a large step in the right direction in the past week , 🇨🇴
$430m worth of shorts just got liquidated @$38.5k hence the rapid move above. A further $2bn get liquidated @ $39.7k , expect a battle to break $39k as the bears are getting desperate!
Interesting weekend ahead,
It took America 200 years to reach $1trn in debt, in the past 30years they have piled on a further $30trn , they are currently adding $1trn to that debt every 6months , it’s a very similar story in the EU , Uk and across the developed world….. but it’s definitely not a Ponzi !
The central banks answer is to print ever increasing amounts of money which leads to inflation ( a stealth tax ) , but it’s definitely not a ponzi scheme!
Governments and central bankers have conspired for decades to subdue Gold and silver prices mainly by allowing the issuing of paper derivatives, then satoshi invented Bitcoin the hardest money the world has ever seen with a true fixed supply , governments desperately attack bitcoin but it simply can’t be stopped.
They attack hard assets in order to protect the lie of fiat ……… but it definitely isn’t a ponzi !!
Bitcoin solves this .
Friday fun
Once again the halving tracker gets Bitcoins direction spot on , which is pretty impressive given up-to 140k bitcoins should have finally been redistributed to those affected by the Mt Gox hack and could have hit the market. On chain analysis suggests that LTH continue to hold firm with 68% of coin not having moved in the past 12months and nearly 90% of coins not moving in the past 6months .
It can only be pure guesswork as to the impact of multiple ETF’s been approved ( probably in January) but a pretty conservative estimate would be $70bn of buying pressure from those ETFs In the 3-6month period after approval, we should also factor in what looks like another banking crisis brewing in US which should manifest in March / April ( reverse repo is giving the signal) this will almost certainly result in the FED firing up the money printer again and pumping in unprecedented amount of liquidity into the system, not only will this boost all hard assets ( especially those with a fixed supply)it will surely wake even more folks to the banking fractional reserve Ponzi driving them to look for a safe haven.
Another bullish signal for Bitcoin is the growing confidence that as many as three more countries will allow bitcoin as legal tender in the coming 12months , from what I understand they’ll all be South American.
Once again the halving tracker is suggesting a continued up trend in the coming 7days , the bears to there credit defended $38k against a bullish onslaught, expect a similar pattern of upward trend with pullbacks and more than likely several rejections at $40k before significant breakout .
In the 2020 cycle it’s pretty clear that FTX suppressed the bull run by claiming they’d purchased $8bn worth of bitcoin which it transpires they didn’t, which means an additional $8bn should have been used to buy coins, what effect would that have had , once again we can only speculate but it’s pretty safe to say the top wouldn’t have been $69k !
Remember there will only ever be 21m BTC and although some claim it’s only a matter of time until a better system is developed Bitcoins network offers real protection against this thesis and with nearly 40,000 attempts to copy satoshi’s genius not one has come even close .
Enjoy the weekend all
Polling stations have just closed , early indicators suggest that Milei has won , bookmakers give him a 63% chance of winning, exit polls put his lead at 5%+ , the first results reported have him winning!
Are we about to see the second Bitcoin president elected ?
The Bitcoin price is indicating we are , to early to definitively call but it’s looking positive at the moment.
The run off vote in Argentina takes place today , the polling is neck and neck over the past week but I suspect Argentina will vote for more of the same rather than embracing the candidate with a radical financial policy that could potentially change decades of crisis.
What is very clear is the Overton window is now opening all over the world, candidates from mainstream as well as upstart parties are recognising the current financial system is holed below the waterline and needs immediate and radical action to save the global financial system.
For those in denial , the USA is currently pumping the economy EACH MONTH with the the same amount of $ it took to save the system back in 2008 , the system is loaded with $30trn of debt, totally unsustainable when invested on that debt alone accounts for more than they spend on the military. The picture is very similar throughout out the world , they’ve spent what they haven’t got and the only possible way out is to print more money and therefore create ever increasing inflation. Yes inflation is falling short term but this is temporary, the money printing will be cranked up next year ( election year in US & UK ) in order to pacify the naive public who trust the banks and central bank even though both have been technically bankrupt for decades, this is illustrated time and time again with bank runs , if the banks had the money it wouldn’t matter if ppl wanted their cash as there’d be enough liquidity to satisfy demand, but history tells us there simply isn’t the cash in these ponzi organisations.
Bitcoin solves this .
Bitcoin has been remarkably stable this week given the SEC have once again kicked the can down the road, albeit signalling a more favourable climate with the correspondence to ETF applications .
The halving tracker suggests a steady move upward in the coming week, a win for Milei could certainly give the price a boost.
GLA
Last Friday I suggested a weekend of fireworks and a move up for Bitcoin over the next few days , I think we can say that’s generally proven accurate.
This Friday I’m putting forward a similar pattern of price movement , the main question been how aggressive the move . All previous halving cycles show upwards pressure at this point to varying degrees, we won’t go up in a straight line but other than a black swan. Event we should be higher in 7 days.
A question for the detractors of bitcoin.
How much gold is there above ground, and how much is yet to be mined?
Or if you’d prefer
how much cash has been printed and how much is still to be created?
There will only ever be 21m bitcoin!
Bitcoin ETF
Things are definitely moving in the background, last week the SEC held a closed session ( very unusual) this coincides with a request to ETF applicants for comments , this is the first time the SEC have asked for comments ( not to be confused with comments from the public ) it seems to indicate a grudging acceptance that they have little choice other than to approve, remember they are facing several law suits from applicants and custodians and give they keep loosing in court it seems they will have to approve especially as several videos have emerged of GG contradicting his official stance .
It’s possible but not likely approval could come in the next fortnight but folks need to understand that even if we get approval it’s likely to be a minimum of 75 days before any ETF goes live and potentially even longer due to the SEC struggling to hire crypto experts because of the rule that you can’t hold crypto while working at the SEC , this all points to early spring ( ETF’s going live ) when hundreds of $bns will flood into Bitcoin even at a 1% allocation and given how little bitcoin is on exchanges it should lead to a nice rise into the halving, this is compounded by the perilous state of the Tradfi banks in Europe and America, the reverse repo is clue to the problem, banks are only depositing half the $ they were 12months ago indicating there cash positions have been drained . Keep your eyes on Bank of America it’s looking increasingly shaky and if it fails that really will rock the markets and possibly send shockwaves world wide similar to 2008 .
Satoshi launched bitcoin in response to the events Crash of 2008 , the bitcoin life raft may just be one of the few things not to sink in the next wave of global financial panic .
Mathematically fact will eventually overpower old school trust in a broken system- invest accordingly but DYOR because once you have Bitcoin makes perfect sense .
$42k for Christmas anyone?
Have a good day all .