Member Info for TOTHEMOONBITCOIN

Throughout the ages we have had folks who either don’t understand innovation or simply deny it as it impinges on their current income streams…. The printing press , Railroads, electricity , Telephones, cars , Airplanes, computers, the internet are a few of many examples.

On one side of the bitcoin debate we have

Paul Tudor jones

Stanley Druckenmiller ( the man who broke the BOE)

Ray Dalio

Elon musk

Jack Dorsey

Raoul pal

Steve Jobs

Steve Wozniak

Certainly among that list are 3 of the greatest investors of all time who time and time again have spotted opportunities before they have become popular, 4 of the above are arguably among the most innovative individuals in the last 30years . Raoul Pal is widely regarded as one of if not the finest macro investors in the world .

Taking the opposing view on Bitcoin are the likes of

The MSM

Central Banks

Warren Buffet

Charlie munger

However what Mr Buffet & Mr Munger aren’t quite so keen to share with anyone listening is Berkshire Hathaways best performing asset in 2021 was Brazilian crypto bank Nubank (Nu holdings ) so are they really anti crypto ?

I guess it boils down to if you believe in evolution or if you are comfortable with the current system and all it’s inherent risks ( most of which most ppl are totally oblivious too )

For me the choice clear , history shows innovation always wins out eventually the only question is as an individual how quickly you spot the opportunity.

Well today is the day , Argentina goes to the polls to elect a new president.

After decades of stagnation the resources rich countries has a real opportunity to elect a radical candidate who can change the course of the nations finances .

Javier Milei has said he will end the central bank , back the currency with Bitcoin and gold and promote inoculation. He won the primaries by a landslide , the legacy media around the world had dismissed him as a libertarian clown with no chance , suddenly they now brand him as an extreme Right winger , do you see the pattern- anyone from outside the established parties in any country is turned upon by the MSM in order to keep the status quo .

Will he win ? He’ll almost certainly win today but there’s a strong chance he won’t get a wide enough margin to win outright and will therefore have to go head to head with the runner up in which case expect an onslaught from the MSM and the legacy parties to rally around his rival.

Clearly my vested interest is wanting another Bitcoin president especially as Argentina has the potential to be an economic powerhouse but the far bigger picture is the need to end the current central bank lead ponzi of forcing workers to earn money while those in power have the ability to just press a button and print more out of thin air with very little if anything backing it . As an example the USA has $32trn of debt which is rising @ approximately $1trn per 6months , an economy of around $6-$8trn pa ( depending on how the stock market has preformed thus taxable ) but is pay close to $1trn a year in interest payments alone and rising quickly, a totally unsustainable situation that can only possibly end in default eventually.

Real change is needed though out the world, Javier Milei could provide a blueprint.

Should he win Bitcoin could continue its rise in the coming weeks , should he lose expect the $28.7k -$30.5k to be the range up until Christmas when it’s my suspicion ETF approval may well be granted. Time will tell .

Thank you to all those who gave respectful and thoughtful responses to the questions I posed yesterday.

GLA

Sadly I think you are correct Noteready , and that is why I’m firmly on the fence here ( other than a small residual holding left from 2021 )

What I can’t get my head around is QBT have had a patent filed since late 2021 , I totally accept that has been possibly refined and Even improved upon with the second method, but why haven’t QBT been mining using these methods? I’m not suggesting they should have invested hundreds of millions in a farm and infrastructure but there are several routes open to mining bitcoin with relatively modest outlays required especially if you wish to demonstrate to a wider market efficiency gains . For instance ARB amongst others offer hosting facilities and because each rig’s efficiency is monitored it would very quickly become apparent any significant production gains. It would also be feasible for QBT to mine using self hosted machines in little more than a shipping container ( I believe DMG design and instal such capabilities) @ a modest outlay . Surely either option would not only prove to the market beyond doubt QBT tech is truly revolutionary but also provide the company with a short term revenue source albeit relatively modest to what they could expect from deals with more established crypto miners .

I’m genuinely interested to hear folks thoughts on this , it’s very possible I’m missing something so I’d be grateful for any ideas that would clarify why QBT haven’t so far mined any BTC .

GLA

A little caution should be exercised when trying to calculate potential revenue , the figures been suggested are somewhat simplistic calculations I’m afraid.

Very very few of the listed miners derive their revenue purely from crypto mining so trying to work out 5% -10% cut from top line is simply not realistic. Secondly it’s highly unlikely that a miner would pay fees to QBT in $ , far more feasible any due revenue would be paid in crypto ( QBT need to insist that crypto is Bitcoin) . Most miners made the mistake of hodl during the bull run in 2017 & 2021 then selling during the subsequent bear markets , you would hope that lesson has been learned so I’d expect miners to sell a small amount of BTC to pay expenses to those that require fiat throughout the bull run but to continue to hodl the majority of mined coins .

For QBT to really take full advantage of this they will need someone with good knowledge of crypto trading to ensure they can meet their financial obligations on a short term basis but also grow their own BTC stake , remember the game is all about stacking bitcoin, if you receive 5btc payment now @ $30k per coin it’s far smarter to pay expenses with two of those earned coins and hodl the 3 remaining ,then sell more sats at $100k per coin than sell all 5 and receive only $150k immediately.

Personally I’ll be interested to see how many coins QBT are currently mining, I accept they probably don’t have many rigs however even fractions of a bitcoin mine would remove any doubt of QBTs potential for me . That first monthly revenue statement can put some really momentum behind the SP that should see LTH back into profit .

Have a good weekend all .

The bigger Bitcoin & macro picture.

Several factors seem to be pushing Bitcoin higher at present.

SEC decision not to appeal the ripple case or pursue the ripple founders.

The banking industry throughout the west is creaking under the weight of higher rates .

The potential for Argentina to elect a Bitcoin friendly president who’s pledging to put Bitcoin in the countries treasury.

Gary Gensler’s testimony to the house - “the banks are concerned at the outflows heading to crypto exchanges “

Larry finks comments on Fox business this week- we are seeing unprecedented interest in a flight to quality with customers world wide wanting bitcoin, gold and oil .

The news that Tesla hasn’t sold any of its bitcoin holdings since it last reported.

Ferrari now accepting Bitcoin as payment.

There’s little doubt the current financial system is holed below the waterline , we only have to look at the level of money been thrown around by politicians leading essentially bankrupt economies to understand that when money can be printed out of thin air all financial logic goes out of the window, and it’s looking as if an increasingly large number smart investors have figured out they need an escape from the Ponzi central banks are operating.

The other thing that has also come to light in the last week or so is that the bitcoin price during the last bull run was suppressed. FTX claimed they held 80k bitcoins but in truth they held next to none . So effectively an extra 90 day’s worth of BTC production was flooded into the market ( sold to unsuspecting investors) that never actually existed, if those bitcoins had actually been removed from the market bitcoin would almost certainly traded well over $100k .

I would suggest anyone who wants an accurate indicator as to Bitcoin’s likely direction follows the halving tracker on Twitter, it’s proven very accurate . I will contradict that slightly by saying I was expecting a substantial move up in Btc price in around 20days time but I suspect the wider macro as well as the bullish news flow surrounding Bitcoin has probably ignited the next leg up earlier than anticipated.

A weekly close above $28.7k would be bullish, a win for Milei in Argentina could be extremely interesting however I personally expect it to go to another round of votes in which case I fear he may get beaten .

Certainly very interesting ties ahead but always remember nothing goes up in a straight line and bitcoin actually goes down more days than up , but those up days tend to be explosive .

It’s Big few days for bitcoin short term direction, today ( midnight in USA )the SEC must decide if to approve 3 ETF applications or will they kick the can down the road again.

At the weekend it’s the Argentinian presidential election with the leading candidate pledging to end the Argentine central bank and instead adopt Bitcoin.

On the negative side theres potential for upto 140,000 of the bitcoins hacked from Mount Gox yo hit the market after those coins have been returned to investors.

Personally I expect the SEC to once again buy more time and deny the ETF’s this time , but I think there’s a good chance Argentina will elect Javier Milei, in which case expect positive price action !

Bitcoin trades 24/7/365 it’s been rising steadily since the SEC news broke on Friday, today’s spike was due to a fake rumour Blackrocks ETF had been approved, Blackrock swiftly put out a statement denying it but confirmed the the sec were still assessing several ETFs

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-12636269/Bitcoin-gives-gains-BlackRock-denies-ETF-approval-

Rumors of the blackrock ETF having been approved are fake , their application along with all the others are still under review. But that 7% rise in 10mins shows what will happen when approval finally does come .

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart raise spot #Bitcoin   ETF approval odds to 90% by January 10th

Ferrari to accept #Bitcoin  and crypto as payment for its cars in the US 🇺🇸 — Reuters

🚨 Breaking News : SEC won't appeal court's verdict on Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF.

Invesco Galaxy acts swiftly, updating their Bitcoin ETF S-1 after ARK's response to SEC feedback. THIS IS HUGE! Watch for more players to follow suit with their revisions. 🚀📄

Bitcoin ETF approval just took a very large step forward, the SEC can continue to kick the can down the road short term but approval before the halving now looks inevitable .

Definitely Game on .

At this point with the share price languishing at 12month + lows FG could show some faith in the business buy making a purchase of shares in the market. Yes he has numerous options at various strike prices but surely a relatively modest purchase for a Guy earning decent money would go a long way to showing the market QBT are on track .

GLA

Understanding the Hamas attack on Israel:

Iran is aiming for a confrontation with Israel and the US. The success of Russia in Ukraine is encouraging Iran to undo decades of hostile US foreign policy in the Middle East. A bankrupt US Govt has just been invited to another war.

The timing is opportunistic. The US Govt is forced to print trillions of USD as it struggles to raise new debt. Another war would lead to a significant increase in inflation and an accelerated economic decline of the US.

If Iran mines the Strait of Hormuz the global energy crisis would become critical. The Biden administration has used the majority of US oil reserves to stabilize domestic oil prices. Iran can increase the pain for the US Govt significantly.

Ukraine is turning into a major defeat for the US and NATO. A new front in the Middle East would accelerate the US decline. The US Govt and its western partners simply cannot afford it. Russia and China would benefit most. Iran understands this and is playing into the hands of its partners.

Energy, Bitcoin , agricultural land , gold , silver are my personal choices to play this , I certainly wouldn’t want to have to much exposure to real estate, banking , general retail or food producers if this situation develops in the way it appears to be headed.

DYOR

I shall be attending the Amsterdam Bitcoin conference this week , most, but by no means all of the big North American miners will be in attendance either giving seminars or exhibiting, last year I got to speak to several as I privileged to have a whale pass as part of the package offered by the organisers for the work I did onsite, this year they haven’t been quite so generous I just have a general admittance ticket, that said I still hope to get to speak to the miners in the hope of gaining a few clues about their near term future.

As you may have guessed from my posts English isn’t my native language however if anyone else is going to be at the conference I’d be happy to show them around the city and ensure they got to Westergas without any problems. Message me to make the necessary arrangements.

Quantum computing threat to BITCOIN

The Bitcoin community and developers are aware of the potential threat posed by quantum computing and can consider upgrading the cryptographic algorithms used in the Bitcoin protocol to be quantum-resistant. This would require a consensus among the Bitcoin network participants to implement such changes

In summary, while quantum computing has the potential to threaten the security of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the future, it is not an immediate concern. The development and widespread deployment of quantum computers capable of breaking current cryptographic systems may take many years or even decades. In the meantime, researchers are actively working on upgrading quantum-resistant cryptography already written into bitcoin’s protocol and the Bitcoin community can make additional protocol changes if it’s necessary to adapt to this evolving threat landscape..

I’m afraid to say this is one of the reasons I have major reservations about FG’s claims, everyone who’s anyone in the bitcoin community very notably Adam Back say that it’s not possible to preempt a new block’s calculation , it is however possible to design more powerful machines that are more energy efficient thus giving more brute force at a lower energy cost but essentially everyone begins on same start line for each new block .

Have QBT developed software capable of doing what the industry including Adam Back believes to be impossible, therein lies the whole investment thesis folks

The current SP is the valuation the MARKET is putting on company , therein lays the opportunity, should you feel the market is incorrectly valuing QBT either under what you believe to be it’s current or future value or over valuing the stock then there’s tools available to take advantage of the market’s miss pricing.

The opportunity to sit on the sidelines and await developments is also an option, an option that may cost you buying in at the absolute bottom but there again may save you from overpaying should favorable news not ensue .

To be frank the term Do your own research has rarely been more appropriate when considering QBT as an investment.

GLA

Fantastic news

Let’s hope wider market sentiment picks up a little which should encourage retail back into the market and drive small caps with a good growth story to more realistic valuations. It’s been a long time in coming but we look set to push higher from here .

Absolute McGinner thank you for the response, most insightful ant thought provoking.

The reason for using ARB’s figures and history is very simply that they’re the company most often used in comparison to QBT by posters on this BB and also probably the best known of the very few listed Crypto related businesses on the London markets , so entirely reasonable to mention them wouldn’t you say

Putting a forward valuation on QBT can at this stage only be an exercise of pure speculation,I note some extremely optimistic price targets along with some more pessimistic predictions.

Let’s talk a few cast iron facts .

When ARB ran it had circa 359m shares in issue, so its peak valuation was £1.29bn £3.60 was the peak inter day . Since then there’s been significant dilution.

If QBT was to achieve a £3 so that would imply a company valuation of £4.5bn as there would be circa 1.5bn shares in issue ( around 300m additional shares due to options @ 5p & 10p been triggered) is that valuation possible? Well with no real comparable company listed it’s hard to say , what we do know is speculative bull bubbles tend to pump the good bad and ugly . The nearest listing company I can find to QBT ( and it’s not really that close a comparison) had a peak of just shy of $3bn but it must be pointed out they where generating profit mining BTC , holding bitcoin as well as selling mining rigs and mining software solutions .

Until we get some hard facts regarding products , addressable market, contracts and orders, folk putting price targets to the are I’m afraid just opening themselves up to ridicule.

To the downside there’s a little more clarity as we have historically charts to give an indication of the potential lows . What we can also say is there’s an awful lot of resistance to cross before price discovery to the upside, @ very least 4.5p needs to be taken out as the local high ( last 3years ) .

ARB bounced around in the 3-6p range for many months then pushed to the next major resistance of 11p before blasting through the previous ath of 19p in one huge move to 22p , from that point there was clear blue sky for price discovery.

Anything is possible when the FOMO kicks in but enthusiasm should be always be tempered with a degree of reality.

GLA

I see the term traders used on here reasonable frequently, often in a derogatory way , when you sit back and think about it we are all traders, the only distinguishing fact is individuals time horizons .

So let’s look at it a little more objectively, I don’t think any professional or even semi professional short term trader would consider QBT as an option. Firstly there simply isn’t the liquidity , on average less than 1% gets traded daily meaning anyone wanting to actually short term trade ( benefit from say a 15% move ) would disproportionately move the market with the volume of shares they’d need to buy or sell to make any such trade viable. Then when we look at the market makers spread which often exceeds 10% it’s another reason for traders to avoid QBT . As I indicated earlier the company have been on my watch list for 2 1/2 years , one of the tools I uses to make investment decisions is to watch the short positions, I check every Monday and Wednesday religiously and I’m 99,9% certain in the time I’ve watched there’s not been a short opened in Quantum .

I’d be pretty confident that no serious traders with the finance to actually influence QBT sp are at work here , far more plausible is the market makers move the price around In order to generate a market, don’t forget MM want a liquid market in order to generate their margin, they actually care very little if the sp goes up or down .

Just my thoughts, I could be wrong .

GLA