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Bitcoin  breaks $100,000 in Australia

JUST IN: #Bitcoin  hits €60,439 to make a new ALL-TIME-HIGH in Europe!

Bitcoin has now hit ATH against 25 currencies, price discovery is coming !

What the fiat fans still don’t grasp is bitcoin is exposing the debasement of €£$ , with the US adding an extra $1tn of debt every 100 days and the interest on that $32trn debt pile now exceeding the US defence budget that debasement will only accelerate when the printing of even more trash cash ramps up .

There will only ever be 21m bitcoin .

Bitcoin is inevitable, what is also written in the stars is the naysayers continued attacks , time and time again the tired old bitcoin scare stories are proven little more than hot air as so elegantly highlighted by our own resident doom monger .

You get bitcoin at the price you deserve , put the work in and it’s very obvious that eventually the bitcoin standard wins , skim through a few MSM poorly researched articles and you sit on the sidelines convincing yourself the fiat system is safe .

Some weeks ago I warned of the dangers of the reverse repo drain , as I suggested March was looking to be a month when the banking system in the USA came under pressure. I’m still very comfortable with that prediction, ids no coincidence both Gold and bitcoin are moving higher as those who understand the shortcomings of the system look to get out of the central bank Ponzi .

The other for asst I will make is no matter what the FED and other central banks say they’ll be forced to pump $10- $15trn into the system to save it . A very sizeable proportion of that will end up in Bitcoin.

I also said in 2024 at least 3 additional nations would put Bitcoin on there balance sheets….. Mr 100 is almost certainly the first , $3.2bn and growing every day .

There will only ever be 21m bitcoin, the cap on $£€ and gold are unknown, bitcoin is the hardest asset known to man and it’s node network continues to validate that every 10mins 24/7/365 .

Have a good Sunday everyone .

US GDP "Grew" $334 Billion In Q4... That Growth Cost $834 Billion In Debt

Some still call bitcoin a ponzi, but to anyone who’s taken the time and effort to look at the bigger picture it’s clear what’s the real Ponzi .

There will only ever be 21m bitcoin. How many $€£ will there be ?

I’m seeing ever more bullish price predictions from influencers and YouTubers , I think we all need to remember these ppl need clicks, when the excitement kicks in the higher the price predictions the more views they tend to get . We saw this in the last cycle with the same ppl calling for $350k-$500k bitcoin. It will pay to spend some time doing the maths to come up with your own price target, it’s actually pretty straightforward, then give a margin of error +or - 25% . Remember nobody calls exact top or bottom so having a figure to work to is a good way to at very least ensure you walk away with the bulk of what’s available.

I spent most of last night reassessing the situation with the most up to date information, I’ve a call option @$53k for around the having (20th April) which is currently looking pretty good but I hands up I’m becoming increasingly concerned we have come too far to fast .

The ETF’s had there 3rd best day on record yesterday, this is almost self for-filling in as much as fund managers performance will dramatically lag if they don’t put a Bitcoin ETF in client’s portfolio.

Interesting, exciting but always considered both sides of the trade , nothing goes up in a straight line and the few that defy that tend to head down just as quickly.

The 100 coin a day whale has now amassed 47k+ bitcoin, is it a sovereign wealth fund, a nation or just a super rich investor? If we ever find out it could boost bitcoin further. my guess is a Middle East sovereign wealth fund but that’s a pure guess based on interest shown in mining in that area of the world.

Today’s mood , cautiously bullish.

Bitcoin

I was surprised to see the power of yesterdays move , I had felt the most likely scenario was to remain range bound $50k-$53k in the lead up to the halving, it would appear that selling from greyscale is slowly dramatically whilst demand from the new ETF’s is actually increasing which explains the pump. It’s also clear the miners are hodling rather than selling coins so daily supply is actually closer to 600 coins, with demand approaching 2000 coins a day net , it’s hardly surprising we are pumping. With the halving around 50days away it’s worth remembering that new supply coming to market on a daily basis is likely to fall to 200-300 as miners will continue to hodl because bar a few exceptions there balance sheets are strong , we can expect ETFs to suck up even more coins post halving as FOMO kicks in . We also need to consider the brewing banking situation in the USA , with the reverse repo on target to be drained completely in March the poo is very likely to hit the fan late March /April almost certainly pushing millions of savers to look for a safer home for their savings.

Another point worth watching is liquidations , $150m worth of shorts were blown up yesterday as bitcoin blew through several key bear resistance levels.

All very bullish, my only real fear at this point is folk maybe front running the halving, some of those ETF holders may see 20% 30% 40% gains and decide to take profits. The good news on that front is however the LTH of spot bitcoin are still holding firm with 70% of coins not moving for 12months or more and less than 10% of holders now underwater.

Today’s mood , bullish !

Misty

The reason I asked you was actually because I’ve watched QBR like a hawk since August 21 , one of the metrics I watch is short positions , I checked 2-3times a week and I’m 100% sure that until GSA took a shot position in January no other shorts were open in the period Nov 21 to Dec 23 . As for the CFD nobody offers QBT in the UK or Europe , I’m no fanboy of QBT I see upside and downside potential, I see a lot of BS from both sides of the argument , unfortunately for you misty not everyone is as gullible on these forums as you hope .

Hi Misty12

Very interesting you shorted QBT , may I ask which instrument you used and on which platform ?

I hold my Bitcoins in cold storage, I have investments in 6 bitcoin miners and hold trading positions in various Alt coins on exchanges , I also have holdings in several funds who are primarily invested in crypto related companies.

Just out of curiosity what crypto investments do you all hold ( obviously don’t give too many details) . I’m just trying to gauge the level of adoption amongst contributors.

ETF’s have had a positive impact on price and sentiment, they’ve also reduced the political risk . Now just imagine the impact of the Hong Kong based FTFs currently been assessed by the Chinese regulator which will make investing in bitcoin far easier for 1.3bn Chinese. Then consider the impact of the ETF’s coming to market in Singapore which has one of the most affluent populations on earth…., all pretty bullish.

Added to that the possibility of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund adding bitcoin which has been suggested by several well placed observers.

Nice to see bitcoin taking a breather after such a strong run , ideally we’d coil in the $50-$52k range until the halving then blast through the $53k resistance after the halving, that scenario is unlikely but with the added selling pressure coming to the market in the shape of genesis’s $1.3bn liquidation of their coins and the continued influx to the ETFs it may just balance out and set up that perfect scenario. .

Enjoy the weekend.

The market makers Spread’s makes it suicidal to day trade in QBT , there’s companies that move far more predictably With a much lower spread if day trading is your thing . I doubt any serious traders would touch QBT due to the lack of liquidity .

Interesting to see the news on superdry ( up 118% on the day ) GSA Capital Partners have a short position open and must be sweating as their now substantially underwater , although an expression of interest doesn’t always lead to an offer the worry for GSA is they could get forced to either double down or close that particular position. This could impact their other short positions, forcing them to either close out in order to raise capital or possibly lead them to become more aggressive in an attempt to recoup loses on superdry .

Not always easy to spot short trades because most professional shorters utilise leverage so a relatively small amount of shares can equate to higher % of outstanding stock . You may recall the squeeze in GameStop when the shorts held 118% of the stock but only held around 5.8% of the underlying shares ( 20x leverage) .

It’ll be interesting to see how GSA proceeds with Boohoo , IOG and QBT in the coming weeks they could well have a disproportionate impact on SP without any out catalysts .

Enjoy the weekend.

The short position in QBT is still open and equates to around 600k shares (.51%)

What I will say is look at what happened to Helium 1 (he1) in the last 7days , two funds short @ .7p shares dropped to .19p until a very flakey bit of news dropped, traders piled in and drove the price up 7x forcing the funds to close the shorts . My guess is however this will be a short lived rally, the shares had dropped from 40p to .19p LTH @ traders have bought in and I suspect will take profits in the not to distant future, the FOMO crowd will be left holding stock that has little if any true value. Guessing when the rise ends exactly is a fools game the could easily double from the current 1.45p but when the rug is pulled there will be a very sudden 50% fall .

Up to date short interest - https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B50P5B53/

We can pretty safely say it wasn’t a hack given how quickly they regained control of the account, far more likely someone released the draft of the authorization 24hours early , one thing is for certain Gary gensler’s position is now completely untenable given he’s made such a big play of protecting the public. Also noteworthy on how bitcoin spiked when the tweet was released, suggesting it certainly won’t be a sell the news as some have suggested.

Looks like we finally get the approval tomorrow .

Speculation that Bitcoin’s hard cap could change is rooted in two deeper misunderstandings about Bitcoin as a distributed, consensus-based network. Firstly, there is not one, but dozens or hundreds of versions of the Bitcoin source code. Every node in the Bitcoin network runs independent software that will reject any invalid blocks.

While many nodes run the latest version of Bitcoin Core, a significant number of nodes continue to run older versions and different implementations. Thus, while Bitcoin Core’s source code can be changed trivially, it is far more difficult to convince tens of thousands of nodes to adopt these changes.

Secondly, miners do not control the network or its rules. Miners produce new blocks and validate transactions. When miners submit a new block to the network, tens of thousands of nodes each independently verify this block, making sure it produces an appropriate amount of new bitcoin, includes a valid Proof-of-Work, and all transactions within the block are valid. Nodes will reject all blocks that violate these rules, meaning miners have no control over Bitcoin’s ruleset.

This theory has been validated by reality, when, in 2017, 95% of miners agreed to raise the block size limit in an attempt to allow Bitcoin to scale. Nodes and users however, refused this change and successfully forced miners to adopt an alternative scaling solution.

At any given moment we. Know exactly how many bitcoins have been mined and how many are yet to be mined making bitcoin the hardest asset on earth .

I do wish some contributors would take the time to actually understand bitcoin and it’s protocol rather than using Wikipedia and legacy media ( who’s paymaster s in Tradfi were anti Bitcoin until they realised it couldn’t be stopped) , the legacy media who have now become far more positive to BTC since the huge financial institutions have decided to embrace rather than fight. Bitcoin.

Just out of interest could the detractors Who appear to champion gold and even fiat give us the exact amounts of either in circulation and the amount yet to be mined / printed?

Personally I’d take very little notice of accounts on Twitter/social media claiming they have information about the approval/ denial of the ETFs , both the bullish and bearish stories this week have come from not particularly well informed sources ( no matter what they claim)

A far better indicator is the Bitcoin advertising been put out by the applicants, the listings on there respective web sites not to mention applications for listings on Nasdaq and other exchanges.

My GUESS is the SEC will approve today but likely it’ll be Monday when an announcement to markets are made to avoid an over weekend spike in Bitcoin price.

As always it’s better to follow signal than noise.

GLA

We should see a multiple Bitcoin ETFs approved in early January , my bias is for a significant initial rise on the news of approval then at least a 40% retrace from that spike , what we must remember is approval won’t mean instant buying, it’s my understanding that it will take upwards of 75days before the ETFs actually start buying, this will play in beautifully with the reduction in supply caused by the Halving set for April 24th . In normal cycles BTC goes up prior to the halving but tends to disappoint in the immediate aftermath only to really start rising around two months later . This time I suspect the price will continue to rise though the halving simply because there will be a huge squeeze on supply with billions of new dollars chasing a reduced supply and coins held buy LTH who understand the bitcoin thesis. As every cycle even during the bull run there will be significant drawdowns 30%40%50% are not uncommon, I expect at least 3 more nations to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender during 2024 , 2 or 3 more countries to confirm they are mining bitcoin, several more very large corporations to put bitcoin into there treasury. I also expect the FED to pump in huge amounts of cash into the system in Q2 which is bullish.

As for price targets, I see a lot of influencers making ever larger predictions, the maths suggest a far more conservative figure, my own target is $87k END OF YEAR 2024 , that is not the peak in 24 imo , you should also remember the high of the cycle tends to be 550-600 days after the halving so another double top is very possible.

Outside actually Bitcoin

Anglo American

Rolls Royce

KR1

Hive (Canada /nasdaq )

Cornerstone

Energy fuels (USA )

Are my picks .

I have large holdings in several bitcoin miners and uranium miners which I think will outperform the wider market in 2024 .

I will say 10 hours researching previous cycles will be time well invested, most ppl think they will sell out at the top , in my humble opinion trying to pick the top is pretty much impossible but you can identify price points to slice profit.

Just my thoughts and certainly not financial advice, DYOR

Happy new year , let’s hope it’s profitable!

jamie dimon (jp morgan ceo) & bitcoin:

jan. 23, 2014: 'bitcoin is a terrible store of value'

nov. 5, 2015: 'bitcoin will not survive'

jan. 20, 2016: 'bitcoin is going nowhere'

sept. 12, 2017: 'bitcoin is a fraud'

oct. 12, 2017: 'i am not going to talk about bitcoin anymore'

jan. 9, 2018: 'i regret making that comment'

oct. 30, 2018: 'i don't really give a **** about bitcoin'

sept. 21, 2022: 'i am a major skeptic on crypto tokens, which you call currency, like bitcoin.'

dec. 6, 2023: 'i have always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, etc. - if i were the government i'd close it down.'

dec. 29, 2023: 'blackrock, valkyrie name authorized participants including jp morgan for bitcoin etf'

ignor the noise, very often they’re doing exactly the opposite to what they tell the world.

bitcoin is inevitable.

Friday fun .

All indications are that multiple ETFs will be approved in early January ( the 8th being the most likely date) several of the applicants have launched advertising campaigns which suggests a strong degree of confidence on their behalf.

Some are in the camp that approved will be a sell the news event but when we look at the liquidity on exchanges it’s very clear LTH are not interested in selling BTC at $42k-$44k , still a huge percentage(85%) of ppl who’ve held coins for 12months + hodl . In a recent poll carried out by plan B over 80% of respondents said they wouldn’t consider selling their BTC for less than $250k , if this plays out I think we can actually expect a nice spike on ETF approval. But we must remember that it’s unlikely ETFs will actually start buying spot BTC for at least 75days witch could mean that initial spike been sold into by short term tourists, what we know for certain is the halving is coming in April meaning a dramatic cut in daily liquid supply finding its way to exchanges , although this is undoubtedly medium term bullish the halving has tends to short term disappoint .

Once again as Bitcoin gains interest Every man. And his dog makes price predictions, many of which are backed by very plausible mathematical calculations, folk would be wise to step back a little and take every prediction with a grain or three of salt . I have personal worked out a price target at which point I’ll start scaling out of my bitcoin related investments ( but not my actual bitcoin) others maybe wise to employ a similar stance because when the FOMO kicks in it’s not easy to make rational decisions to take profit.

I wish you all a merry Christmas , and propose a truce between the QBT bulls and Bears at least until trading on the market reopens .

Bitcoin fall is due to senator Elizabeth Warrens proposed bill banning crypto self custody in the USA , she’s claiming cryptos primary use is for criminal activity. The irony here is she’s a big advocate of big banks JPM in particular, that’s JPM who’ve paid $39bn in fines over the last 15 years for wrongdoing!

JPM whose CEO says he’d ban crypto yet has a crypto trading desk within his organization! JPM who’ve been labeled a criminal organization in a court of law.

Clearly there is some risk that this will pass into law however warrens record when either submitting or sponsoring legislation leaves grounds for optimism.

One thing is for certain if it passes Bitcoin will retrace significantly , should it fail to pass into law we could see a god candle .

Good luck senator Warren, you have picked a fight with something designed to be attacked and even if you do win you will be forever known as the person who drove a steak through the heart of democracy and freedom of speech in America.

BTFD .