Member Info for Tornadotony

Rickee

Like Marketwatch I had 168p as a support line. A few people sold some stock if they thought their average was high and had an overweight position. They could well be buyers on a 168p retest or around 160p.

The company may have another RNS up it sleeve whether its a home trial report, an update on progress on procedures with regulators, interest on taking the COPD side of interferon use route to market and a large clinical trial stage 3 for Covid -19 managed over several countries if they can do it.

TT

Macaumike

I have the same target. I added at 128p yesterday. I would not be surprised if its a double digit rise today. The Q4 earnings are going to be a huge as they confirm access to higher grade gold in the underground mine. They have a series of reserves and resources to announce that will give life of new mines to 2034. If the Ireland project came off it would be 400p a share easy.

If they are including Synairgen in the doctors tool kit to treat patients than it is a fantastic news as the second wave will not be as severe as the first by a long shot. I admire all those who contributed in any way to make it possible. It could well prove be a case of "so much was owed by so many to so few".

This has been the price of AAZ at different times this year for different gold prices.

Early Jan 143p Gold 1520
Feb 149p Gold 1600
Mar 88p Gold 1490
Apr 133p Gold 1590
May 119p Gold 1700
June 132p Gold 1740
July 130p Gold 1820
Aug 174p Gold 2028
Late Aug 150p Gold 1928
Early Sept 142p Gold 1949
Today 126p Gold 1905
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Correlation looks poor to me.

The company has estate with enough gold to operate for 10 years plus and expansion plans will take it to 15 years. It trades 9 times earnings. It has no debts. $29M is in cash in the bank. 15% of the stock price is cash in the bank.

I estimate the lowest end of Revenue is around $30M in the last quarter or another $8M net cash but some is paid out in divi. Because of likely higher production in Q4 I have revenue at 1700 Gold price at $34M or another $11M built up in cash to $40M. At today's share price a quarter of the stock is cash in the bank year end and you get a divi.

This is AIM undervaluation at its best.

Tony

Thanks everyone for replying. I look forward to the BFS next month.

Kenneth

Bear in mind that 85% of people are asymptomatic and the purpose for them to take the vaccine is not to spread to a vulnerable person. Synairgen 001 is not for asymptomatic population at all so the need for a vaccine remains a high priority. The purpose is not to replace that need by this product. Instead we have vulnerable folks at home (on-going 120 patient study) that may show some protective value if they acquire earlier symptoms and trying to keep them out of hospital. Additionally we have non-vaccinated casualties arriving in the next few weeks. A vaccine has an efficacy rate and it might be 90% or it may be 30% or somewhere in between. Society may get by with some herd immunity as well. However despite the vaccine I believe there is market for perhaps using interferon therapy with a steroid therapy (which reduces mortality 30% without interferon). To deliver a combination therapy that limits mortality to the extreme end of vulnerability that is probably seen with influenza cases (despite all the availability of annual vaccines).
Hope it helps.

We have tried looking at the science, looking at commercial value, impact on patients how significant the evidence is thus far and overall a bigger clinical study this autumn would be a great result to take it further. In the end the real value in the product is actually COPD use and not everything here is Covid-19.
Tony

https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/bankable-feasibility-study-29202.html

What is in process.

I was trying to understand the risk after the resource report. I was under the impression that as the resource doubled and effectively the share priced had doubled to give an in the ground price of 46-47p that the bank feasibility study had very favourable metrics to work with. Was I correct in that assessment. What chance is there for the bank to say its not a runner. I am trying to weigh up the risk and I could not see where it was despite the share price slipping back further this morning.

I note the company had a 17% carry with the company taking over that deal. They mentioned tat the route to market was through Boehringer at some in the future. I suppose this gives another 25p plus on the stock price as a future income stream. If thy got a 10% free carry on SNG001 through a licence to another company that it could deliver a good income stream over many years.

On a share with production cost around $600 an ounce for gold. They are about to produce a new reserves and resources report to boot. They make money hand over first all quarter and then suddenly valued back to where they were at $1500 gold and $17 silver. You can not make this up.

It is a useful exercise to try and do as you then ask is the science adequate and good enough to generate £50M in licence income per year net of any company costs. This gives a feel if the investor's average share bought price was in reasonable risk position in relation.

£3.58p

Apologies late at night its 3.58p a share.

On the basis of £1400 revenue per patient, I have taken maximum profit level as 21% after all taxes and all costs (including marketing, debt interest etc) which give around £295 per patient. This has to be a minimal margin for a lot of companies. The health provider in western economies will know that if the patient stay is reduced by 3 days then half their cost is recovered if they are like an NHS provider.

I have then taken a figure of 20 patients in all of the UK either having COPD or Covid-19 requiring treatment every day in the NHS in a ratio of 1 COPD with 2 Covid-19 at the present time. I have multiplied this figure by 25 to give a global market (UK 4%). I have assumed low rate of market penetration for the product as other therapies and vaccines may be available and allows for swings during the year where it may be far higher and when it may be lower.

20 patients x 365 days x £295 = £2,153,500 UK net profit
£2.153M x 25 = £53.825M entire global market profit
53.825M/ 150M shares = 35.88p and at 10 PE rate gives a share value of 358.8p For treating a total of 500 patients per day.

As I mentioned before if 1/3 are COPD patients numbering 166 it gives a non-Covid value of 119p per share for the stock as on current market share price. So the current premium for Covid is about 61p a share if it were on the market. In future years the company would need to grow the COPD market to replace dwindling needs from Covid-19 patient numbers.

The key to the real valuation is the route to market. A large pharmaceutical company may take on more costs and have a deeper market penetration and get a better return on their costs. A smaller provider will have a lower margin and may offer a lower price to market the product for Synairgen. Overall it is interesting the broker arrived at a 360p price which equates to the 500 patients per year target.

Thank you. I now have something to go on.

However,
I need the estimated manufacturing likely cost to treat 1 Covid-19 patient with a course of SNG.001. I need to know if it is the same cost to treat a COPD patient in that they have the same protocol. Of course it will be scaled up to volume. I can then add non-manufacturing costs and a profit margin. This will ultimately provide me with a revenue figure. From the total revenue based on particular percentage market penetration I can work out likely profit and working back from that I may be able to give a fair value for Synairgen. If anyone can get me started I can work it through from there.

The company is currently valued around £275M or so. What is a realistic valuation once a positive peer review arrives.

If anyone has a reasonable comparable example that is most like the position Synairgen are in it would help. My average is much higher than the long term holders and I am just working out what are the fair values.

Thanks for your feedback. A baby was thrown out with the bath water.

I missed this coming.

The vaccine message was to give the public hope. If the population is in despair that is not a motivational tool to stimulate sacrifice and to have resolve.