Member Info for Tornadotony

oil or nothing
No its not 360,000 patients to be treated.
The whole point I was making is that despite a national programme to immunise everybody against influenza there is a huge caseload of people going still going into hospital so the arrival of a vaccine for Covid-19 will not stop elderly individuals appearing in the hospital. What we do know is that any medicine with proven efficacy takes years to be routine across the NHS. We know in winter 60,000 COPD patients mainly with influenza like illness will be exacerbating and they could well be a large chunk of that 360,000 patients. The NHS may well select up 20,000 of the COPD most likely to benefit that could justify the expenditure of having the Synairgen interferon nebuliser. However it is likely that it needs those good home trial results and a peer review paper on the hospital findings first and hopefully this will soon all come together.

It was 2.633M hospital days in bed occupancy.

Stays not stage

From 2017/2018 Financial Year- Source DH Government

Number of patients presenting under Finished Episode Stats with influenza or pneumonia requiring admission to hospital between the ages of 65-89 was in excess of 360,000 people. Hospital bed stages for all ages in the population was 2,633,000.

This happened despite annual influenza vaccinations.

NHS Tool Kit Commissioning document written in 2012 for patients with COPD. NICE gave a price range for effective interventions which was around £2,000.

If we work on 3 years for NHS uptake to get nearly 280 UK hospitals using it, in year one 20,000 patients with COPD out of 600,000 in all of UK having serious winter exacerbations, requiring hospital or paramedic intervention may present for Synairgen interferon to be used. This cohort say is spared a long hospital stay. 20,000 x £1400= £28M revenue and lets say £14M profit. Lets assume USA wanted some of the product as well for 20,000 patients in their market for year 1 and overall the company made £28M profit a year. So the share profit is 18.6p for the sake of argument. At 10PE rate this would be 186p in year 1 for COPD alone. In year 2 and year 3 there is 100% growth so the share after two years could reach the brokers 360p target. Now Covid 19 has paused it would mean a total of 40,000 patients globally would be treated by it. With 5,000 deaths a day on average at present but lets assume they halve during early 2021, that gives a market of 900,000 people and so if 4.5% were treated equals the COPD numbers I gave earlier and 9% on Covid-19 serious patients would be the year 2 figure.

Hope the above helps.

Still waiting to get the peer review and intravenous interferon injections (probably end up being filtered in the spleen causing adverse drug reactions there) are not the same as a nebuliser drug delivery straight into the lungs where most of it does not go into the blood stream etc). His comment on steroids reducing the mortality rate by 25% from Covid-19 is broadly correct. The highest I came across in one study was 44% and they do vary between studies depending what ages of patients were in the cohort. I am not sure the Prof had the time to go into the detail he as he may have liked as different questions kept him on a flow to the next issue area.

I will be happy with that.

Your not alone but only went half in. Now need 3.5p to make it look like a sensible entry.

Went through eventually

No problem earlier.

Dibs what you describe is shorting and eventually that leads to a short squeeze. That in turn can create a huge spike up.

John Bell is a super eagle mover of new uptake in the NHS.

Slift

The Guardian and 4 scientific papers have discovered the genetics on why folks get very ill with Covid and others not affected .Check out Synairgen board night.

This is incredible. Folks have not woken up yet. Big Pharma CEOs later today will be looking for a deal like around lunch time. I can not believe it has not been picked up yet.

Lets hope its a case of backing up the truck and filling it up with Synairgen shares or better still the stock is suspended at x pounds higher as a result of a takeover bid.

I may have found the answer to my question.

Six weeks before 20 July not June.

On this board going back some 305 pages or so to around second week of June. I noted that someone had spoken to RM about the commercialisation of SNG001 and they were told at least six weeks before 20 June that aspects of commercialisation of the product were active. A second person reported 21 June on this site (which can not be verified as it was a freely posted comment) that their colleague who worked in AstraZeneca Macclesfield were fully aware of SNG001 and were interested in the outcome of the studies.
Saved everyone going back all those pages.

Gkb47 has answered the other 3 papers.

First paper- May explain why intravenous interferon 1 route may not work well. It does not exclude the efficacy of the nebuliser route. It lends support to the importance of interferon 1 's in the pathogenesis of seriously ill Covid-19 patients.