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First paper- May explain why intravenous interferon 1 route may not work well. It does not exclude the efficacy of the nebuliser route. It lends support to the importance of interferon 1 's in the pathogenesis of seriously ill Covid-19 patients.

Hi Slift

Both influenza and Covid-19 are serious diseases for the elderly. Covid-19 does cause long Covid symptoms in some young patients which do not lead to mortality but carry morbidity. These arise from an over-stimulation of their immune system. Hopefully this group may be protected by a vaccine at some point. I do think it worth while to collect blood samples from those with long Covid and find where common biomarkers if any exist. At this very moment in time the treatment in hospitals has started to reduce mortality rates but we are still a long way from that 0.12-0.19 mortality range. Shutting down the economy is based upon a seven fold rate higher as of April this year.

The Russian vaccine has come into question regarding the earlier science and has so far not satisfied buyers probably relating to its efficacy. So it basically may need more evidence. I would not expect a vaccine being available in 2020.

Tony

Courtesy of poster on HZM Board.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-10/china-plans-strategic-boost-to-vast-state-commodities-reserves?__twitter_impression=true

Hi Dunk

If we work on 3 years for NHS uptake with the eagles buying first and elephants following their peer group, It is not unreasonable for 20,000 patients in COPD out of 600,000 having an intervention where Synairgen interferon may be used. This cohort say is spared a hospital stay. The revenue is £28M on a trajectory to 80M if it became standard practice in the UK. Say the overseas market was similar in year 1 and the company had an income of £56M and their profit was £28M and so after yea 1 the share price should be 180p and at year 2 it could be 360p and so yes this figure is COPD alone with no LOX income included or Covid-19 use. A health economist might be able to agree those kind of figures. The data is winter infections only on those COPD patients.

If Covid-19 does impede COPD care then having Synairgen on prescription for those having problems needing an ambulance or urgent call out is massively useful if they are stabilised. In fact having it as part of the ambulance tool kit to stabilise a patient would be a terrific bonus. In fact Covid-19 is disrupting the COPD healthcare pathway to use the Synairgen interferon. Its quite easy to get totally blind sided in thi being a Covid-19 therapy being the beginning an end all. The COPD market is actually way bigger than Covid-19. I have to reverse my entire metrics of valuation tha I considered before. The one error in that valuation was that 20 patients should read 280 as they have 14 doses at $100 each. Others picked up on that which I gathered later on.

Ooops UK not K

Slift

The K mortality rate of Covid-19 in the first six months was 0.85% on 8% community infection rate. The new and a few old therapies around used as toolkit of prescription need in most cases phase 3 clinical trials. I believe the reduce the mortality rate down to 0.17%. A normal influenza year has a mortality rate of 0.09- to 0.12% and a heavy year would match the levels they might get Covid-19 down to. The irony of a second wave in October and November is that it supplies patients for those trials. The good news is that we may have a proven therapeutic defence for early 2021. Getting a vaccine would then be a cherry on top. Tony

10-12% of COPD patients every winter may need something like the Synairgen interferon as a prescription against viral lung infections. This equates to 60,000 or so patients. For every 10,000 that are treated equates to £14M revenue for UK alone. The cost saving in reducing an NHS bed crisis pays for this quite easily. In fact I am starting to question if hardly anything to do with Covid-19 is in the share price around these levels.

Chinese Moon Festival 1 October. Shoppers need a bargain out in Shanghai for their pet rocks. I guess that is a bargain for might be Shanta buyers as well.

I still have 20% on the table in Tullow. I do appreciate your inputs. I am concentrating my time more on Covid therapies as I believe it may front load what happens in the oil sector. I do question again about my decisions as one day Tullow looks like the Titanic and then suddenly you think China is recovering why can't the west follow them, but then we are different or so we think. TT

To Org 30

Lets not talk at cross purposes. The virus itself is quite stable. Its the same ugly virus that was in existence earlier this year. What has changed is that we have greater visibility on testing numbers and its proven by the 8% of the population in the UK that are thought to have been infected in H1 of this year. This shows that in the first six months true mortality is around 0.85%. What is happening in the second half of the year is that the younger population are getting more infected in the summer and it is now in September getting into the at risk patient groups. This is arising through younger people visiting older people households and hence the desire to stop that kind of transfer. Another factor limiting the rate increase is that older people with sense practice social distancing a lot more than they did before. I believe the numbers will be less than before than in the spring as I believe most people will use masks and will try to look after themselves if they are in the older age groups. This does not stop problems in nursing homes if they are not covid-19 defended.

fish2

The UK government is supporting trials for therapies that have the capacity and route to market. They are not just supporting vaccines. I have left a note on the AstraZeneca board to see what they think on any chance of working with Synairgen again. AZ will have no shortage of severely ill patients in clinical trials this time (the cause of the asthma trial breakdown years ago).

I have worked most of my life on innovation in healthcare research. I have last count on how many successes arose from near points of failure. It just might be possible that our biggest UK company may want a therapeutic which can be used for COPD as well as Covid-19 and anything else that is viral and attacking lungs in future. If AZ came back into play the companies know each other well. It will take a good pitch for Synairgen to win AZ over again and just maybe they might give the company a second chance. This is the big deal to put together. This is when a CEO and directors show they deserve the big pay cheques or not. Good science needs good impact follow ups.

In the past Astrazenneca pulled out of a project with Synairgen interferon nebuliser prep because of the trial design not delivering the patients to show best efficacy for the use of the drug for asthma patients. Synairgen has since shown that a phase two study shows some degree of promise on Covid-19 patients and its backed up to a degree by quite a few other studies with interferons having an impact on replication of Covid-19 in lungs. Do you think there is a chance of these two companies having another go in working together again and showing efficacy in a stage 3 trial against Covid-19. Therapy goes with vaccine work as 90% of people will need a vaccine, but we will have a cohort of desperately ill people each year despite vaccines as we see with influenza. I would value someone taking the time to comment on my enquiry and thank you in advance.

The number of COPD patients in the UK as of 2018 in an HSE report was over 100 people per 100,000 in the UK. So with 650,000 people having an emergency supply of nebuliser perhaps just 1 dose per annum as a prescription which is $65M revenue per year and if the margin is 50% as some have suggested then it equates to our current SP close price of tonight. This has nothing from Covid-19 which is probably driving us all slightly nuts.

I believe Synairgen are down 5.6%. So a 3p rise and the company will be treated as all the other companies in its peer health biotech sector this week. Just putting it into perspective.

Org 30 the mortality rate depends on the demographic age profile that exists in any particular country and how much diabetes and hypertension that population has. In the UK the mortality rate is 0.85% which approximately 7 times more deadly than influenza. For those individuals over 55 years old will carry 0.849% of that mortality profile. Covid-19 is not ordinary influenza. What has changed in social distancing and the way people work and greater discipline that we have put in place to give a slower rise in deaths that occurred in the spring.

The mortality profile in the UK is the same as it was on 21 March 2020.

Org it is the same virus and its just as deadly. It is that complacent view which undermines behaviour towards it.

Synairgen is the hold up. It has only 14 employees and it is to small to carry on with this. They do a deal with a much bigger company or they don't. We actually have a right to know if the company has serious interest, that offers of sorts are being put on the table. I would expect an offer very soon if its going to happen otherwise we are just sitting on very interesting science.

This must be a commercial issue. I have looked at other phase two trial therapeutics results and some had results that were no better than Synairgen and got approved in two months. This is most likely about a takeover or partnership holding the whole thing up. I can not believe a decent sized company has not put a deal on the table. Everyone knows that a vaccine does not preclude the need for a therapeutic product to manage an over active immune systems and reducing lung viral load.