Member Info for Tornadotony

Last night they were agreeing with Russia for mediation.

My calculations were on 68,000 a month. However, the margin is not really known and they may have been discounting the cost. I will stay with my original calculations and a 14 dose course is £1,000. It would yield £30M profit line. This should put the share price above 200p

A few weeks back I mentioned a process of how it could be accessed by patients. This is now going to happen. Several clinicians out there will want to offer to patients especially asthmatics with Covid-19. Any good news will spread through the grapevine fast and its likely to happen.

I will not be surprised if the share climbs back up after 9am. I see the RNS as positive pump priming.

Should now go up.

Escalation arises as we head into October in mountain areas. This conflict has to be resolved in the next week. If nobody wins than it has to be a discussion arriving at a real peace with movement on both sides. I believe Russia will call both sides to the table next week.

Sorry Triumph 1 last comment is for Char333.

I need new glasses.

Triumph1

Plot a graph of all the airlines and oil companies and it will be the same over 2020 and especially the last 3 months. If oil companies rally you should be happy. It will mean hospitals are operating as they should (8% oil economy as everything you see in a hospital involves oil products). It will mean people can actually go and see family members living in another country. It will mean that events are happening that people are travelling to places in large numbers again. It will mean people are starting to earn more monies to buy goods or services that probably use a lot of oil product and just look around your home and see where it all exists including the paint on the walls. In fact the collapse of oil prices and oil stocks is really bad news for just about everybody. It will take time to replace oil and companies like this one are brave enough to deliver and manage and evolve that new future. They may not deserve a kicking that you celebrate, but instead its an opportunity for the brave to be in here and to have an open mind of the mix and challenges and needs that all have to be fulfilled. The share price hopefully will resolve itself and in the meantime think harder because without oil life would be very hard for us all indeed.

Earlier today a post was on most USA studies concerning Covid-19 excluded older people. Over the weekend I pointed out that despite a vaccine for influenza, millions of NHS bed days with over 360,000 pensioners arrive in hospital and swamp our health service in winter (2017/18). The final point on age with illness, if you have therapy that takes you as an older person from 20% functionality to 40% functionality the result is being extremely happy as you appreciate what you can now do as its 100% improvement. If you are a younger person with 80% functionality and improve to 85% you may not notice the difference as it feels incremental.

This company does clinical trials with older patient cohorts. This is an extremely hard thing to do. It also means it is difficult for others to copy and demonstrate similar efficacy with the relevant patient group. Its more difficult because they may have different illness and co-morbidities. Its more difficult as a proportion available may not be meta stable. Older patients may be required to take other medication for all their other conditions. The criteria recruitment is just more complex to do and leaves more variables to contend with.
Whatever happens we are on the right track to have relevant impact and a meaningful output. Whether the investment succeeds, the commercial element materialises and remaining clinical results deliver is what still awaits us. At least there is a chance it does not join the 90% of scientific research that is irrelevant.

ony

shareaction

We do not have a handle on the profit after debt repayment (principle $25M) and debt interest. Someone else may have a figure on tax due to Angola government and royalties etc and the discount against normal tax rate during the debt repayment period. From that we have a low case to high case earning range. If the market is unimpressed the BFS does not stimulate a share rise. If it does the BFS gives a higher equity valuation and the company as you say raise against the higher value if they choose that route. So if the share goes higher it would drop after the raise. The company then successfully build their mine.

Not sure. If they do not do a capital raise they may take out a bond.

This time they let us know all is safe and they are keeping an eye on it. I am pleased for all the AAZ staff it is so.

Hi China

Thanks for your views. The only thinking missing from my maths is the net income from the revenue per year after debt repayments, interest, taxes as well as all the company costs. The bankability doubles the share up if the percentage of revenue giving net profit was say 30%. Thanks for the copper site as well. Tony

The company did not RNS back in the previous conflict but it was only 4 to 5 days. The level casualties is nearing the last conflict. I am not sure if anybody wins by continuation and far better to get back to mediation.

The AAZ mines are well away from on the ground conflict and well beyond 26 miles usual shelling range. In fact two of them are at least 70-80 odd miles away.

Chinasyndrome

Where do you see the stock price by the end of the year. I appreciate its only an opinion. Trying to decide do I add a bit more now or wait.

Tony

Iran, USA, Nato, Russia have all called for a ceasefire again in the last few minutes. Iran currently mediating by telephone to both sides for ceasefire. Just hope we have cool heads in the morning agreeing to talks and ceasing hostilities.

https://uk.images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=location+of+anglo+asia+mines&fr=mcafee&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.caesarsreport.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FAnglo-Asian-Mining-Gedabek-AAZ-1.jpg#id=0&iurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.caesarsreport.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FAnglo-Asian-Mining-Gedabek-AAZ-1.jpg&action=click

All the mines are safe from the conflict area. The last thing people want to see is civilian and military casualties and hopefully something will get resolved.

Not necessarily the SP moves on it. This outbreak was on the cards and whipped up by Turkey in the background. Russia has made it clear to both sides to cool it and step back we could see a de-escalation on tension as the day progresses. Their is solution to the problem and both sides can find their way back to talks. The operating mines are not in the conflict zone. I have lost track of so many gold mines near trouble areas and it quite often did not affect the share price as long as they could operate securely.

oops USA market is six times bigger than UK

My opinion goes as follows;

Venrock were probably looking out for the USA market. They probably made it crystal clear to the company to patent protect in their home market. They probably know experts on FDA approval. They probably know of USA pharmaceutical industry that interested in their COPD market which is 6 times bigger than the USA. They probably realised hat COPD alone which is the long term value at a Royalty rate only to Synairgen would give a share of the USA market annually that would support their entry price at 200p for the company stock. They probably had bank sources in USA that could fund either warrants or provide lines of credit to get Synairgen through a phase 3 study with the sole purpose of delivering a prescriptible product for NHS use by COPD patients let alone for COVID-19. They were likely to be aware that if Synairgen looked after the NHS market alone that it gives substantial upside to their investment.

The share has tested 20% upside and downside of their price. The next update should set out all the company plans.

This will be the last input from me for a few days as it is such a busy board.

Taknorisk

I had avoided saying it myself. It will be lost in the 5000 other Covid letters MPs deal with. However, if it makes someone feel good as mortalitity numbers increase every night than there is no harm in what they do.