Member Info for Tornadotony

Shall we have another go at valuing it ourselves as await the PEA study and try and arrive at a minimum value on lower end metrics in the market and give higher end costs for the production to give a worse case value. I sense the current share price is possibly already below that figure.

His report should be made know so that the company can view his claims and how he arrived at them. De Cliff becomes the source of personal liability and for that matter litigation unless he had caveats in that original report covering what he does not know that could change the original conclusion arrived at.

I hope everyone does realise that on the day of any financial news of funding the Pensana projects the share price would double overnight and it would probably be covered by a news channel.

The close yesterday is below fair value which I have at 94p as a minima. I suspect having a company like BP as a minor shareholder in Pensana is helpful. They incidentally run windfarms off Hawaii. Having access to a large company like that would give Pensana benefits.

https://ninetyone.com/-/media/documents/investment-review/91-oeic-global-environment-fund-investment-review-en.pdf

I have read several papers tonight stating that rare earth miners, especially with those planning reduced discounting by eventually producing the oxide of NdPr should not be valued as in the ground total JORC resources.

Corrected version

Pensana owns 81% of the Angola mine. This equates to a resource value of 792,000 tonnes of NdPr. Taking a long term price of just $45,000 per tonne (not the present $120,000 a tonne and likely future prices) and taking a resource in the ground price of 1.5% of $45,000 as it is based in Africa ($675 per tonne), the unbuilt mine asset value equates to $534.6M. This is approximately half the enterprise value credited to the company this evening. Of course the entire asset has to be mortgaged effectively to build the mine and all the assets to convert resources into actual reserves and then to produce NdPr oxide. The conversion from resources to reserves triples the value of the mine and Pensana stock as it will have a route to market for the oxide per tonne once in routine production. Eventually, once relevant news arrives the stock price could well double up from here. Tony

Pensana owns 81% of the Angola mine. This equates to a resource value of 792,000 tonnes of NdPr. Taking a long term price of just $45,000 per tonne (not the present $120,000 a tonne and likely future prices) and taking a resource in the ground price of 1.5% of $45,000 as it is based in Africa ($675 per tonne), the unbuilt mine asset value equates to $534.6M. This is approximately half the enterprise value credited to the company this evening. Of course the entire asset has to mortgaged effectively to build the mine and all the assets to convert resources into actual reserves and then to produce NdPr oxide. The conversion from reserves to resources triples the value of the mine and Pensana stock as it will have a route to market for the oxide per tonne once in routine production. Eventually, once relevant news arrives the stock price could well double up from here. Tony

Large number of patients getting infected in some USA states. Kansas City issued alert can no longer take Covid patients from other hospitals. Numerous hospitals now getting full of patients up 100% in past week. Estimated that other operations to be cancelled if it continues at current rate. I doubt if they can ignore the problem at Jackson Hole meeting.

How can this share be 98p when 1800 gold price was giving over 108p a month ago. At 1900 gold it was 121p. Centamin is priced down at 1700 gold.

Has South Africa fallen apart again? Has Burundi seized the Rainbow mine and said sue us in court and bring it on and in the meantime we will flog all of it to the Chinese. What on earth is wrong now.

Unfortunately market maker put the price to high at 148p and encouraged sells. Hence we now look to find buyers on a dip. Copper prices will be in strong demand in 2023 so makes sense to develop the asset but also to double up on copper production. If they do AAZ is a mini Antofagasta. What we need to see is what is it going to be like in 2022 and that Gedebek has some good mining areas to deliver next year.

Kevin,

Synairgen is still playing out just as expected. The share price could rise into the 150's as traders buy at the current price and sell 10p higher. The down side is reducing over time as the long term support line moves higher. It has quietly strengthened over many weeks when viewed where the bottom of the price channel is going. The arrival of a new large investor gave a boost and the share price has absorbed their entry. An RNS announcing last patient dosed can drop anytime. Tony

Looking into it further they have at least 8 years of copper supply at 3,000 tonnes per year. The gold is equivalent to one year of mined out. It may therefore be 2 years of GEO then 18 months.

Looks like they have replaced around a year to 18 months of GEO production at 80,000 equivalent gold ounce run rate taking into account further drilling and conversion of resources into reserves.

Under related articles I should say.

I noted that electrolysis of water was the only green route to provide hydrogen article on BoE website.

Eloro

Berkeley we all know about and hence the wisdom of having ASF owning 22% of the share stock and the deal arrangements agreed with the Angola Government. The situation of advancing a project without stakeholder support was being handed a poison chalice. I think he did the right thing in leaving that company but again the experience shows what not to do with a mining project. At least with Pensana every effort has been made to get stakeholders on board. I should mention the ASF stake in Pensana is probably near 50p price level overall and hence why they could chip in on the last placing.

Eloro

I looked at Leyshon energy and it would be most unfair to blame Paul for the oil price drop in 2014 from $110 a barrel to $55 say. The timing of that drop coincided with the company trying to acquire profitable gas plays that came into competitive demand and they lost 3 tenders probably against bigger companies. At the same time they were trying to do a farm out.
Share holders got 4p on the winding up of the company which was better than some larger competitors of the same size who went bust in the market. I would say he learned a great deal from it that carbon plays were not such a good idea. Tony

A lot of Burundi people not earning money as things stay idle. Its not fair on them. Time to wrap up with a deal and get people working again. Need to complete operations to get into manufacture. USA to offer better offtake prices would be a nice deal.

Bad news on Fridays and Good news on Mondays with this share. Options expiry is in September. The Directors hear the last patient to be dosed is approaching. They take options this week despite knowing the SP goes higher as they have already done well with the options. Allowed others to get in a cheap Synairgen price before news hits and they appear less greedy and manage tax issues at the same time.

Rapidly approaching the news zone.
Tony