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All part of a bad day on the stock market to mess up anyone on holiday unless they decide there is another war on.

Theorist, the Pensana website shows the Snowden pit optimisation for Longonjo. The company is only using 23% of the mining capacity which has a 40 year life but to note 73% is to some degree left alone unless partly mined to access particular ore. The company does need the Longonjo mine for a few years, but later if Saltend can take multiple different feeds of Carbonate, Sulphate etc that meet entry requirements, the need for Angola feedstock is reduced if it was required to be necessary. So much of what is argued here has focussed on the mine, but ultimately its the Saltend processing that generates the income on final product.

I have written to the ATF and received a prompt reply two days later. After the first stage, projects work up the full proposal and follow through due diligence procedures and these due take several months. The Pensana placing included work to deliver environment permits which is all part of the ATF due diligence. Pensana should release an RNS when they have achieved it, as its hugely material to grant and financial funding. Pensana will be doing similar within Angola for the mine. The sealed tailings receive inert paste according to the Pensana website. The business plan is likely to show that Saltend is responsible for the vast amount of profit generated by the final product. Whether the final Longonjo concentrate (36% NdPR) costs $4,000 a tonne or $5,500 a tonne (including any Angola tax) has a modest impact when Saltend costs are added on top and taken off the final selling price per tonne of separate metal or oxide. The possibility of also having alternative good quality feed reduces Saltend operational risk further. The later concept of recycling is a longer term key development and a desirable outcome when Saltend can be extended in future years. No other company that I can see has offered such a visionary concept. As news flow develop this has a chance to be a quite extraordinary project on helping to tackle climate change. It does have risks but then all good projects at some time face critical challenges.

DP lets don't have an argument about Pensana on this board. Pensana and Rainbow have entirely different metrics. The 27% on revenue has nothing to do with Saltend which is like SA asset here. Also 27% after two years is all tax and it equates to around 50-52% if it were on all the mine profits. This is broadly the same as all miners who pay corporation tax on profit of 30-35% with much high royalties, VAT and additional local taxes and you will find most miners walk away with 48-50% of the profit income. Please note what comes out of Angola is worth $5,000 a metric tonne and what comes out of Saltend is probably $55,000 per metric tonne. Apologies to the board in responding to DP. Please DP do not respond back to this as we are allowed to have different views.

The value taken off on this morning's news as a worse case should be a 2p drop taking all the worse estimates giving 14p as a sell. The value removed was on revenue losses not on profit losses for us to be at the current price of 12p sell. I also included losses on the higher AISC on gold produced and no further VAT back payments and gold staying below 1800 for the remainder of the year. £38M off enterprise value is offering a good entry price for new investors.

We are reading to much into it. These problems happen in mining from time to time. Shanta will recover from this and if the VAT relief comes back in Q3 and Q4 totalling $8M it will offset 80% of the disappointment today.

If they achieve the same amount of rebate for remainder of the year its equivalent to 4.000 ounces off the annual target. Still have plenty of rebate in future years.

Equivalent to 4,400 production at $900 AISC

Having taken a few days off and visited the Holkem estate, I have arrived at the current analysis. First of all, climate change stocks are under pressure. A huge amount of global rhetoric was made to deliver real change and deal with an imminent crisis to impact future generations of mankind . The evidence of this being real is becoming far stronger and its costs to us all are becoming very apparent. Yet those who have the power seem content to do little waiting for somebody to act with real leadership to make the big decisions and moves. Time is a precious commodity and mother nature again is serving notice that we are running out of time. Those of us putting some funds to work in companies like this want the material change to happen and make available the materials to meet that challenge. It is a strong reason why we chose to invest here.

The second issue concerning Rainbow Rare was that it was a company finding its way and may have made mistakes before the current CEO arrived. It would be unfortunate and disappointing if anything in the early days has caused a problem and a loss of trust in the current CEO if it preceded his role and actions in trying to develop the company. Incompetence sometimes happens and it can arise in government departments, academia as well as industry. The key ethos when it happens wherever it occurs is to prevent recurrence and that is what public stakeholders want. Hopefully reconciliation is to be found in Burundi. The president has opened up dialogue to surrounding countries and trying to build alliances. Finding mechanisms to build future trust is a good way forward and so resolving the problem offers added value to Burundi and being seen as a champion to deliver climate change initiatives and having a seat at that table for such change. It also opens the door to develop good governance and how this should work. I therefore believe Pham can be a go between architect and a builder of such an outcome and the issues of Burundi may then be resolved and the company and Burundi Government end up in a far better place.
3. The South Africa events may now be calming, but they have reminded us all on the need of a global solution to Covid-19.. It is a major warning sign of what can happen across many other countries that now face both climate and Covid-19 stress. Hopefully, Rainbow Rare is given accelerated support in what it is trying to develop with SA asset and instead of being downgraded as an African Government risk. Hopefully somewhere and somehow a priority for global climate and governance stability is recognised and countries following a particular code help attract investment than divest resources away from them.

Whatever we do here, we should not underestimate a collective strength of purpose, are collective intelligence and contributions that we can make in bringing about change through supporting innovation, enterprise and conservation.

Tony

First of all the Burundi mining was in trial state that could have failed technically. So most of us invested realised that as an outcome and based investment on SA asset alone. Its best to move out and move on from burundi and Pham needs to work closely with South Africa.

It was a binary punt. We proceed with South Africa development.

The flow sheet shows only 40% of the Thorium is concentrated as NdPr is concentrated and its not 100%. If the MREC also has a beneficiation process initially as the company data implied last year before acidification and bake this could take it down from 40% to 24%. This is quite quickly taking it down to Lynas levels. On top of that Thorium levels at COOLA are 1/10 of Longonjo. Diluting feed from Coola with Longonjo could take levels in processing down by 90% overall for Thorium.

Maybe the answer is to produce Thorium Fluorides as the fuel for future MSR reactors. Solves the problem. I would not be surprised if they got built in India. If Angola had one MSR reactor plant it could be a 100% sustainability result.

https://www.zmescience.com/science/what-is-molten-salt-reactor-424343/

https://www.purolite.com/industry/hydrometallurgy/development-screening-resins-ree-scandium

What we also know as a clue was that the initial MREC concentrated NdPr was improved to 36% from 22%. To do this we have 61% of the material in one part of the flow and 39% without NdPr. It may be possible that either 0%, 39% or 100% of the Thorium is with the NdPr based on its binding chemistry with the resin. Lets assume it is concentrating fully with NdPr and the next step in the MREC would be to pull out all the radionuclides in one go as a hot radioactive waste for treatment. It would then be made inert as suggested by the company and heavily re-diluted back with all the different tailings generated by the MREC process. The waste material would need mixing/blending so the distribution of radionuclide per kg matches far more closely with NORM levels.
In essence the company statement that they have a process in handling this could have validity. Explaining the recipe to everyone would give the know how to competitors and any cost and technological advantage that Pensana may have enjoyed would have then been given away. Consequently we have sceptics saying no visible evidence they want to examine so they do not agree on the investment here. Whatever the case, certain information and evidence would need to satisfy the ATF. They would not give millions away on a white elephant in Saltend. When the ATF approves it is big news for Pensana and its not just about the money.

What the company have told us is that they developed a resin based process to give mixed earth sulphates. I attach a paper showing how scandium was separated out using a resin based process and the results show how selective it was in pulling out a metal and leaving what you do not want to continue such as Thorium. Development and Screening of Resins to Recover Rare Earth Elements (REE) and Scandium from Different Sources (purolite.com)

I will add more to this later as dinner beckons.

From the update RNS.

1. Submissions in respect of the operating/environmental permit following the Saltend planning approval. If there is an issue of radionucleotides than environmental approval does not happen and neither ATF approval under due diligence. So everyone should be assured it is being fully dealt with on the Saltend side for environmental permits to be fully complied with.
2. From the AWF website. By pursuing investments that generate long-term financial and sustainable returns, the Angola Sovereign Fund aims to play an important role in supporting Angola's socio-economic development by creating wealth for the Angolan people. The organisational structure of the FSDEA ensures that the appropriate review mechanisms are in place by adopting good practices at global level. The FSDEA is committed to operating in a way that is transparent, responsible and fully compliant with the laws and regulations of Angola and the countries where it will invest in the future, so that its approach ensures compliance with the laws and regulations that apply to the Fund. So the AWF would not support the creation of a toxic dump in Angola or anywhere else. They are the biggest investor in this company and what they have to say probably gets a huge amount of attention.
3. For someone not investing in the company, but has interests with a perceived competitor who then keeps referring to drilling results dated back to 2013-14 when Longonjo was only partly assessed and no assessment was made at all of the 6km Coola asset is highly disingenuous. The company has indicated that its MRECS and tailings processing are under due diligence review, their work is innovative and they wish to retain information in-house than publish as it has commercial in-confidence value. The FEED assessment which goes beyond any business plan completes in October 2021. Finally the resource in Angola has many decades of supply and allows selective mining that can supports environmental permits.

I am personally fed up of mis-information put on here. I politely ask them to desist or some of us will start taking this up further with LSE. If they did proper research and communicated with the ATF, as I have done and how their processes work, they would know a lot of these issues are being worked through.

This was debated on 17 June on this chat site. A variety of prices were raised depending on the model assumptions. The problem at present is that the market does not value the gypsum stacks as already mined material that is partly processed. They clearly value it on mining metrics which underestimates value. For this reasons a figure of 30p appears as a broker target in 12 months. This price target values the Burundi asset at zero and assumed the company does not get a deal to continue its operations and export its production. The rally in Rainbow Rare stock to 14-15p is primarily due to its South Africa asset and increased prices for rare earth metals.

On that basis $5.6M is what Rainbow has in 420 tonnes. Thanks DP

SMM Concentrated REO Carbonate/USD/MT $4,326 dated last week.

What we do know is that Rainbow employs 250 staff in Burundi according to the 2020 annual report They are on furlough, but that can not be sustainable for to long. Around $1.8M of income is held up in 420 tonnes of concentrate.

As an aside the first institutional investor came on board on 28 May, Marmite Capital AG, and holds 0.16% of company stock. Perhaps others are waiting to see the outcome of negotiations in Burundi.