Member Info for Tornadotony

Lost a support line and now 153p is the next area of significant support. Last few touch backs to 153p had strong rallies over 170p. Could be just moving in a range until we get real news.

Quite possibly in late August or early September we might get the Coola assay results and have an inferred resource classification. I hope the data does include thorium and uranium measurement data instead of keeping undisclosed. I want the company to hit that issue head on and show how mine planning the resource assets can be quite selective for high NdPr basket that is low on materials that are more problematic to deal with. If Saltend are taking carbonates from elsewhere than the pants do not have to be ripped off the mining asset in Angola which operates on selective mining guided by the geological testing. The increased COOLA resources adds to that pool of resource giving lower cost selective mining. If the company could differentiate a class of A grade mining material from B or C grade that would be very helpful and again show they are setting standards.

Interesting to see if Pensana moves up with rare earth prices as they certainly moved down for several weeks as prices fell. Price increase for NdPr and Nd oxide up 4%.

Charles

A presentation awhile back with Paul Atherley talked about the construction of six major new cities in China and how their own plans and developments would consume the entirety of rare metals they export to the West. The west has around 5 to 7 years to have its own independent supply from China. This is not anybody being anti-Chinese its just a desperate need to meet future demand. On top of this is a public interest to respond to climate change. People out there want action not just words. Unfortunately the climate lobby jumps on the wrong thing occasionally like air transport when its vehicle transportation that has a 4 fold greater impact on climate change at least. Going over to EVs by 2030 is a huge task and the ATF grant is partly to service that need otherwise why give Pensana a grant to build Saltend. Recycling windfarm magnets is also a growing global market. Some of the wind farms are run by big oil majors like BP who have a base near the Saltend proposed build site. Tony

Lets stop arguing guys. The whole point of looking at the share register is to see where it is changing. Incidentally big institutions dump shares on several stocks I have owned to cover up a mess they made elsewhere in their investments. The point being made is that affluent sources are owning more of the stock and at best the share by small PIs like us in most cases is staying flat overall. Also new players have come in when the stock price was higher. Perhaps stable would be a better choice of word than solid in the previous.

As the number of positive tests increase each day, the opportunity to generate additional mutations increases. Once the positivity rate exceeds 80,000 a day a mutation to get around the vaccine can probably materialise as those high day rates take awhile to drop. ( India has delta plus already). Once the vaccines become less effective, partly through waning immunity with time, but also having an escape through enhance mutation risk, the inevitable surge in cases in hospitals arises again. The public will then be told to have boosters and more vaccines and the true non-disclosure of adverse responses again played down to enhance uptake. They also end up using lockdown again which could be problematic. A loss of trust and patience may find the only real defence will be covid-19 therapies and that is where Synairgen comes in. As a consequence the Government recent policy is a strong positive for holding Synairgen stock.

Some of the changes since March 2021 from what was published a week ago

ASF was 23.1% now 22.3% but hold more shares.
Jim Nominees (Director has link to Jarvis Security PLc) was 9.9% now 13.4%.
Pershing a subsidiary of Mellon Bank New York was 8.3% now 13.1%.
Vidacos was 4.6% now 10.8% (Vidacos is consolidated by Citi Group) Based in Canary Wharf London

7 of the 20 had no change Selection Capital Vynben, HSBC Custody nominee, Phillippa Cameron, East Africa, Tasman and JV Kurtz. was 10.9% now 10.4%. (Dilution by placing).

Decliners were interactive investors, HSBC Global was 4.0% now 3.4%. Hargreaves and Lansdown up 0.6% Barclays marginally up but just cover placing dilution.

A few names have disappeared and others have replaced them. ISI is new along with Aurora Denobis and Huntress +3.5%. Those leaving were Starfin, Gerai, Pineleaf and Robertson (-3.3%)

For the benefit of our readers.

Hi Dumbpunter

Nothing of the sort. Very few people come here ask questions and in the same communication give answers in a way to make it out as fact and use language like it was in a judicial crime scene. This of course after they suggested the company in a previous communication of a wrongful share placing for funds in the market. Come on its not a case of not liking questions being asked. Tony

Hi Chinasyndrome and all our readers,

The thought I had was that a fairly sophisticated block of shareholders got involved before the LSE listing. You may have knowledge who was invested before, but I recall $50M came into the company. My guess is that are two previous non exec directors were highly instrumental in bringing together a vast group of new investors and it may have been pivotal and not all down to PA at that time. The holding companies managing the non-exec shares from what I can see are all in place on the shareholder list. You might have a print out of the prior list before 28 June and share changes, but overall the holdings are very solid.

This following bit is for everybody.

Chat rooms are a bit of a jungle. Nobody should use them for investment advice and everybody makes their own judgements. In my opinion be wary of new posters joining the sites especially when they only contribute on one company. Be wary of those who do not disclose their interest in the company. Be wary of repetition and charged language to evoke emotions in others. Be wary of those who love to practice their paranoia and other forms of mental illness from a hidden contribution source or they work for a competitor company. Instead do plenty of research, manage your investment within risk tolerance that is comfortable for your own circumstances and use the filter button to whoever you do not read their owned unresearched perceived bias or garbage. Being long or short and open about it is absolutely fine. Sharing knowledge and contributing views and questions is welcome. Being derogatory to others without any evidence in my book gets filtered especially when it is perpetuated. Tony

https://www.miningmagazine.com/plant/news/1413034/ucore-reports-rare-earth-separation-success

Certainly no trades from me. The VAT rebate could drop at any time.

Thank God for the ignore button to get rid of gas lighting shorters.

Mark Hohnen has a huge amount of work over at Bacanora Lithium of which he is Chairman. Who is to say he need to focus on that job as a priority after the acquisition they made on 25 June. Its ridiculous putting up theories. Furthermore if anyone had a health issue, Pensana would respect their privacy. Its ridiculous putting up theories. Neither have sold any shares from what I can judge. Lets see if we get a couple of replacement appointments in the coming weeks.

https://pensana.co.uk/shareholder-information/

Remains solid.

Not unusual. typo with usual!!

Maclachian is actually 77 years old on his biography on marketscreener. Hohnen was probably helpful getting the ATF application together, but once its approved his role is somewhat reduced. I can think of many reasons why people in their 70's call it a day. Who said it was immediate resignation? They may have telegraphed it earlier to fellow board members for all we know. Retiring mid year is not usual and same for year end. Covid-19 pandemic has led a lot of people with a desire to change a few things in their lives.

Great volatility.
The Shanghai market gave us a strong hint yesterday. The correlation of a nose dive on last day of month trading for gold buy volumes was 85% that it would rebound today. Shanghai desk in New York is now opening up.

Astro999

Rushi will apparently deliver the Green bond next week. For the first time in weeks NdPr prices went up so they may be just levelling off. ATF Commissioning is either July or September with important results afterwards. Funds or Institution buying at 103p in June occurred and they may be entering again around that price. The share price does what it will do. Eventually some of us will make gains elsewhere to put more here. At least Fresnillo and CEY were going up this morning and I think you are on one of those. Tony

I put some contributors on ignore for being repetitive and adding absolutely nothing of substance and just want to play their own book. A certain person just qualified.

Gold miners broadly speaking make 25-35% profit when they take into account the total fully costs known as AISC. They also make assumptions on recovery rates from resource measured and inferred to reserves and a reserve ounce is valued between $100 to $120 per ounce.

Lets assume Pensana has similar costs to others producing the metal and unlike in the business plan it was $26 not $22 as in the April business plan. So if we took 2020 prices and subtracted the costs and the taxes the percentage profit is around 30-35% which is no different to the gold miners. However the tax may be deferred against the debt for two years. This yields around $80M payback from NdPr magnets plus $25M from all the other REO elements returns $105M per annum or $210M over two years.

However, if we take the market prices from this morning they are 63% higher for NdPr and these generate $207M. Other REOs might be just $40M. This generates $494m over two years and hence pays the debts off in two years.

Subsequently if we assume royalties to Angola were still paid we may have some debt into year 3 and the plant may be in a scale up process as well. So lets take the following assumptions that any growth in the market does not yield additional profit and rare earth monies declined against the growth figure for profits at full capacity to remain the same. Basically ,$250M taxed at 25% and after royalties $175M a year is the best achieved. Lets assume the share base has also doubled to 432M shares. This yields 40 cents a share earnings or around 29p. The PE rate for such an enterprise should be at least 15. This would give a share price of 435p in 5 years time. For those with say a 150p average the return is 290% or a return on capital per year of 58%. All the above is 100% share dilution, raising costs 18% over what was suggested, offering no price increases from 1 July 2021 through to 1 July 2026 and assuming a 12 month ramping into year 4 and 5 earnings.