Member Info for Tornadotony

Your right about the slip on the basket being dollars it does not change the figures later as it was a mis-type.

Quite often when an explorer declares validated resource from all their exploration and is not in production, the market gives an insitu valuation. It does allow placings to happen with some confidence who are trying to develop that resource. Additionally someone wanting to buy the discovery will give it a value.

So for a gold miner in Africa the resource measured would be $40 an ounce of gold and the inferred per ounce is $20 per ounce allowing for the fact that some infrastructure to transport what is mined. So if you take a gold price of 1700, 40/1700 gives an in the ground figure. I have used the same percentage as it does seem reasonable that the value added is close to 50 fold more once advanced as a production asset.

I have estimated 253 hole alone proves 135,000 ounces of gold assuming the drilling is similar to what the company does in Tanzania. This is 1.5 years of current Shanta output. The calculation only used the lower intercept grades such as 22 metres at 3.5g.

27th June article. Curry got one call wrong between November 2020 until this week. All the other forecasts have been very accurate. https://www.gold-eagle.com/authors/jim-curry

I attach details of the daily data page. On the 30th June the volume of Au999 trading was very low and this is typical for end of month and end of quarter. There is a high probability of heavier Chinese buying overnight and when comex open in New York as China also buys on that market and it gets added to the Shanghai daily volume. We shall soon if China is back in the market to buy gold. https://www.en.sge.com.cn/data_DailyReport

Au999 contract was on the floor last night. Years ago this gave a high probability (85%) of heavy buying with a new month and new quarter. We shall see if that proves to be so once again.
https://www.en.sge.com.cn/data_DailyReport

I have corrected REE basket price using December 2020 prices for oxides and using the mean in table 7 of REO % content in the resource RNS 14 September 2020 and the basket price is £13.72 kg but ignores some very low trace elements. I have also ignored any MREC manipulation or processing. Although current prices are much higher I have chosen a lower historical figure.

For the valuation I have multiplied measured REO tonnes by 0.0235 to give an in the ground valuation. I have valued Indicated as zero. I have multiplied inferred REO tonnes by 0.01175 to give an in the ground valuation. These would be the kind of valuation figures used to purchase a known resource asset. The REO value increases as it is processed to a product. Essentially the only value generated thus far is through exploration and testing.

$13.72 x 1000 x 664,000 (measured REO) x 0.0235 = $214M
$13.72 x 1000 x 2,490,000 (Indicated REO) x 0.01175 = $401M
Recently obtained $21M placing.
Saltend value at zero.
Total = $636M
Assume company has 75% and Angola Government overall 25% = $477M approximately £340M. Shares in issue 216,145,872 which gives a price per share of 157p.

DP I have erred on the calculation. I will need to re do it. You have probably seen table 7 in RNS dated 14 Sept 2020.

Fireant

As you probably know the Pensana chart ran about the same as Rainbow and MP for many months. The dissociation with Rainbow happened on 20 May and on 25 May Pensana broke further down against MP. So whatever the cause it only became specific to the company from that time point. We also know a short was taken out on Pensana at that time and was not taken out on other companies in the sector. Why a short was taken out was thought to be of an upcoming placing. As for what happens next we shall wait and see. It appears other stocks in the sector are starting to rally. This occurred on a previous occasion very early in the year and Pensana reacted and caught up later when it had some news to give. Tony

Redsparrow

The other possibility is for gold to put in a higher low just above 1762 either today or tomorrow. I suspect heavy Chinese buying of gold on Thursday when a new monthly trading book opens up in Shanghai and we start H2. I could be wrong, but will at least know for sure in a few days.

In time for the news. I always like to read RNS with resource and reserve updates and we have a couple to look forward to. Another return to the 160-s low 170's in late summer. 12-14% uplift sure beats 0.1% interest in a bank account.

At 784. Now holding out for the autumn.

Added as well.

14 September the share was valued at 65p for its updated resource RNS for longonjo. Correcting for changes in rare earth prices since then gives an updated value of 95p. This excludes all the add on developments since then add value to the company. The next resource news on COOLA is due soon from the Sulima complex and Monte Verde sampling. It is likely to exceed the valuation on yesterday's close price. The REE basket value now given at 107p is below $53/kg for what contains terbium and quite a lot of Dys on top of the NdPr content.

I believe Centamin has moved ahead of any downside to the gold price. Last time it was 104p Gold was around $1730 an ounce.

You mean it has hit plenty of support at the £1 level.

As usual it dips further, but can always buy more.

On the radar for awhile. More chance of upside than down for Fresnillo.

To Leroy

Save in your favourites and you have a traders cheat sheet. Its not perfect but sometimes its very accurate.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SNG.LN/cheat-sheet

Wet dream the chart has two resistance levels at 174p and 179p. Its having another go at breaking 174p as I write this. What is the relevance of 174p? It is somewhere that a seller is unloading shares which is just under the placing price last year. In the morning it could not be breached. We shall soon see if the seller has finished or whether they are just getting started and the share is pushed back to the 159p support line. Like it or not support lines attract buyers and resistance lines attract sellers. Sometimes support gives way and sometimes resistance breaks down and a breakaway higher occurs.

Synairgen looks like it has nowhere to go. Across a range of time frames, 5 minute chart, 15 minute chart etc the share is topping out with a triangle pennant. Either news happens this afternoon to break resistance and go higher or Synairgen regroups after a retreat to around 159p and build up for another go at resistance later this week. A lot of firepower was used up before 9am and it failed to push through and stay higher. We shall soon see if this is correct when USA market opens.