Member Info for Tornadotony

Fake rise is not the correct terminology. If it is going to be a bull trap we shall see the drop on USA open over the next 30 minutes or so.

Highveld

At times fundamentals rule everything as you describe it and then at other times like in August we have more traders using the mathematical charts and their actions can sometimes drive short term movements in the stock sometimes more than the fundamentals. I use both methods as I enjoy doing it that way. Everyone has their own evolved way of running their investments. Everyone who runs their own show has the courage to lose their money on their choices than pay someone else to make the wrong decisions or correct ones for them. So a lot of people who scribe on LSE have that trait in common and that is why I like a lot of people who share their views and knowledge here and of course we have the choice on what we ignore and what perhaps we like as a fit to what information we are looking for. Tony

China

We have seen how it has moved through the 80's and 90's for awhile now in a back and forth motion. The last two occasions it dropped back. Lets say I am bracing myself for more disappointment if it happens. I am hardly in a position to down ramp pensana and would be extremely happy if this shot through the roof. As for the slow stochastics they are quite high. What would help is having a bullish chart with higher lows and we go forward in that kind of pattern. The real test is today and whether it drifts back to low 90's in the afternoon and where it lands tomorrow or do we have a buyer pushing it above 100p and it breaks resistance levels.

Rainbow rare has formed a triple bottom and its slow stochastics are crashed on zero. They to have an interesting afternoon in front of them on a chart perspective and the stock is really cheap based on the South Africa asset. To a certain degree its when Mka, Pensana and Rainbow all go up together that a sea change is happening for the sector. So far its been rather choppy on and off for all three. All the best Tony

Just noticed we have an RNS, but its all what the company have said before.

It is currently overbought with stochastics at 100% on the daily chart. There is still a chance of revisiting mid 80's again where it has been trying to put in a bottom. Without any RNS or news, I am not so sure it can move up as we would like it to. As long as it holds the mid-80's it can deliver a huge bounce (75-100%) when the RNS on finance finally arrives.

The share price should hit 20p if they can achieve it with a reasonable recovery just at the PEA/DFS stage imop. Once financing is in place and production is routinely on going the company can generate 2000 metric tonnes of NdO a year. The share price after some dilution for the financing could be higher than 72p. A case of putting the shares in a draw and waiting for the project to materialise.

Gakara is likely to get mothballed with all the the antics played up by the Government especially what has been said today. The African bank may also be suggesting to wind down the operation as not being economic. The only issue remaining is whether legally the company can sell its stored material and wind down its operations in Burundi without having to go to court. The project has logistics going against it and this was always a well known risk.

Fair enough.

For some reason I was taken to a different site before involving an oil company. Not sure how that happened.

DP

The energy sector is not the resource sector. Oil can be produced anywhere and the PE rate is more focussed on the size of the company than where it is located. Small oil companies get high PE and large ones like BP and Shell are lower ratings. I do not know why it is and whether it has something to do with debt load, high divi payouts, share buybacks or chances of being taken over. The reason for low PE rates in South Africa is lack of power and putting up with blackouts unless they have their own oil/diesel generator plants so I am surprised with the example chucked back at me. I am sure they may have also have other sectors that have resilience and the stock market overall is not 4 PE rate. Who knows you might find a resource company that gets a good rate. Other market conditions can also change in the meantime that either help or hinder South Africa. Tony

Red sparrow

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-sworn-fed-chair-succeeding-bernanke-202043573--finance.html
Yellen replaced Bernanke and it was Yellen who tried to raise rates in Dec 2015 when rates went up. Bernanke tapering brought gold lower in 2013. Nobody has a clue how things are going to play out but a lot of analysts are calling it a non-event. Centamin divi is the following week and the grown ups come back to the trading desks from holidays and daily volumes increase again. A case of collecting the divi and trying to work out what happens in 2022. Some of us were expecting a 5-10% growth improvement for 2022 and a good recovery on the AISC outlay for CEY. This may buffer any downside on gold if it happens from here.

The platinum miners certainly were on 4. They did get a higher rating when they did share buy backs as everyone was getting fed up with low PE on high earnings and some were re-rated 140% higher in share price. So the company has options of how they may deal with it on divis and buy share backs if they get landed with a low PE. Having a CEO from SA will help deal with this issue when it happens.

Prion25

Not sure what you mean it failed. Out of 1700 having placebo a worse case would be to find 17 very serious cases and they had only 3. This implies the 5000 odd numbers that only 1/6 were giving true efficacy data. That still leaves a study strength on 833 people. It does perhaps raise stats issue of 67% treated group having no cases and placebo having 3 arising by chance. Was this your interpretation on why the study could fail at peer review stage?

I will write to the company and emphasise how all the exploration costs must be audited by the Kenya tax authorities and kept as a record of expenditure.

DP, the operation is in South Africa so the power failures if any happen there, worker strike disputes and everything else happens in South Africa so the PE rate accordingly will always be lower than if the production plant was in USA or Europe.

They accused Tullow Oil of cheating on the books last year (quite incorrect), and local politicians have a lot of disagreements with central government and can blockade developments. Stakeholder management will be key. Issues concerning availability of water are critical in parts of Kenya and they must be handled as a first point of call followed by power supplies. Expect argument over tax rates and arguments over what the company spends on building the mine and is allowed to rebate against future profits. They will argue over allowable costs to the proverbial cows come home. The company are best advised to audit everything and record what the Inland Revenue has allowed in writing and they are satisfied it is allowed to be rebated against costs. They need to cover every loop hole. The company must also have a clause in the event of the Kenyan mine is sold to another company that it can include any allowable transfer of mine building costs that were outstanding for rebate although this may prove to be unlikely.

I have to go through all my data again later, but had the company earning net profit of at least $78M every year for say 18 years. It was taking some brutal assumptions across the board. $78M is around £57M and the current enterprise value is £60M. This was for the most expense end product at 60% of long term NdPr price of $55,000 a tonne which is a long way off from the recent $78,000 a tonne for just the oxide and not the metal price. It would suggest at 4PE rate the share price would be 48p if they can deliver the high grade end product. 4PE itself is a dismal rate but its not uncommon for South Africa. Tony

13p holding thus far on the buy side. Sell price below two support lines is not an attractive place to off load.

Agree China. Instead of BP doing buybacks why not buy decarbonising assets by taking up company bonds or buy 0.5% of those companies that allows them to reduce their CO2 emissions off some future tariff and counting such actions as like planting new forests.

They are 13.00, 12.75p, 12.50, 12.22 and 12. So not sure where Noel comes up with his figures. The first at 13.2p has gone. The MM will need to see where the buyers are. The next stop is likely to be 12.5 sell with 12.75 buy. 13p if no takers may go soon. The deeper into the 12 range we go the stronger the support lines.

Growthisall

Nope. The PEA has to be done first. The business case is presented to the bankers. They agree capital to be provided by loan conditions and payback schedule. The company expends finance to start up all the production which involves a long soak with acid to leach out rare earths from gypsum and any capex necessary to deliver. The time scale for this being worked out giving confirmed recovery versus cost. The company agree an offtake deal for final products after PEA and awaiting bank approvals. The 30% agrees what they want to in the meantime as to invest alongside or sell their 30% to Rainbow. The PEA result is a plus for the share price, agreement of finance a huge plus and completion of first production run another plus.

The company plan fits with EV market rise and global need for copper in future years.