Member Info for Tornadotony

If the shorts close this would move into the 90's in minutes.

3rd resistance line defended. Key now is to hold 8.9 on the sell as a new support line for the close of play.

Has managed to get above the downtrend line. Next two targets are 81p on sell and then 86p on sell to establish confirmation of break in trend and move above resistance lines.

Breakout is 13.5 sell and 14 buy paid imop.

On the verge of a possible breakout.

HZM arrives on the final resistance line.

Second resistance line at 8.91
Third resistance line appears to be at 9.10.

Breakout is at 9.2p on sell.

To get to 10p it has to fight past 3 resistance lines. Its approaching the first one at the present time.

Apologies Pensana production is double that of Rainbow in my previous.

CaneToad

Like yourself I am in Rainbow and Pensana. Rainbow technology is exclusively for gypsum stacks. Rainbow has inferred data and awaits to be converted into measured resources. This would uplift the value considerably and the CEO has emphasised investors to note that issue. The second is that maximum life of the gypsum stacks is 18 years. Pensana has 14 years proven supply and the capacity to extend to 40 years at close proximity to mine infrastructure. 1/3 of all plant is located in the UK for Pensana which is at the high end value chain whereas Rainbow is 100% South Africa with USA as the off take source. Pensana production targets are double those of Pensana. Both shares are massively undervalued. They are both needed for different reasons. Tony

Metalhead

The first two financial outcomes will be in 4 to 6 weeks time. These include early research on the equity raise and likely bond interest rates and the result of HMG due diligence on an ATF grant or government guarantee loan. The ATF element has a likely value of $25M. The remainder of the financing being sought is for $400M. The 5 year bond at $250M is hoped to be finalised in December. The AWF is to take part in the equity raise so they may want to avoid being diluted. A number of major shareholders will seek the same outcome and additional institutions are likely to take part. Hope that helps. tony

The company clearly has something important to say. It will be 8am in New York and some trial sites in USA could follow it if they tuned in early. A lot of effort usually goes into a webinar and the purpose is usually to heighten transparency between the company, its stakeholders and this includes investors. The probability is Synairgen has some kind of new data to share with us. It might concern long Covid-19 avoidance in some cases, or extending a study against the mu variant in Colombia or whatever. It may also be a case of running through the road map of what may follow if the trial is successful. I am not sure of any occasions when bad news is delivered by a webinar Q&A without a prior RNS. It is far more likely that engaging analysts would only take part if the data to be presented was having a meaningful impact as it would enable them to raise constructive questions about route to market, future financing, the value to patients and would this be the key to avoid UK lockdowns etcetera and issues about manufacturing to meet healthcare demands. It does not make a lot of sense to invite analysts to dissect a study that failed to meet its endpoints or did not have adequate efficacy. At any rate we have an interesting day in the diary to look forward to. Tony

1. Most of us knew once Saltend was being added this was a 3 to 5 year investment time frame and I switched from trading to investing in April 2021.
2. The project gives the UK access to rare earths that are independent of Chinese producers that may not be able to supply us or for that matter anyone else.
3. It was a climate protection stock and there was a lot of push from Central bankers and the political class to give support to these type of companies around 12 months ago.
4. Other than Lynas nobody else outside of China was attempting a complete rare earth chain to oxide production that also may add recycling as a later stage.
5. Green bonds were being announced by the Chancellor in March 2021 and this appeared to support ease of funding.
6. The company indicated it had first stage support from ATF and might get Capex or loan funding.
7. The host country Angola was heavily committed and its Sovereign fund owns 21% of the company.
8. The company had a unique sulphate MREC that apparently improved concentration of NdPr content and was less expensive to process than carbonate and so reduces Opex costs.
9. The company had a lot of knowledge of the rare earth market and was hiring considerable expertise across the entire breadth of the project. It also had access to at least 14 years of mine feedstock.
10. The company was to use a new UK Freeport facility to reduce tax liabilities and encourage investment.
11. The company established close government connections on the board and included several with finance connections.
12. The company has a management team that owns some of the company stock and so have a vested interest in the project being a success.

Despite all the above the project can fail if it does not get financed on reasonable terms and the team mis-manages its resources on route to production. It can fail in the market place if other producers are heavily subsidised and undercut the market. It can fail if everyone ignores what is happening on climate change and does nothing to change what may happen in the future. There are risks and there is no getting around it. There are risks with every investment and we also do not always know what we don't know. I conclude what I have said earlier that we have been promised a number of communications. The COOLA results might get delayed a month because of Covid-19 hitting timetables in Australian testing labs. However, it was clear that other objectives are fairly close at hand. We can only looking forward to de-risking of the project and with that a better share price on the stock as the growing list of my original reasons for investing can be added to. Tony

Resources not reserves.

Astro it is a waiting game at the moment. I would be surprised if the government does not give loan guarantees to Pensana and I would also be surprised if they did not get a grant on par with those of USA rare earth companies who received payments via the Pentagon to develop future supply. Various Ministers and MPs know all about Pensana and we have a political connection on the Pensana board. Hopefully, they are emphasising the importance of what the company is doing. This share can double in the space of a month with a good flow of important news.

DP
The mine value is not the original cost of land acquisition when the contents were hardly known. The world was happy China doing everything for it 7 years ago. Everything has changed since then including NdPpr prices. On 11th August last year the company had 189M shares. The share price back then was say around 34p ish from memory. So the enterprise value was about £65M. Since that time the resources through exploration were valued 230% higher and NDPR prices have risen 75%. For the NdPr price rise I would only increase in the ground value by 20%. It still leaves 2.5 x 65M and say the enterprise value is 165M. The company has yet to spend funds on long order items and has around $10M in the bank. This equates to around £170M as cash in the bank and ore in the ground valuation. The equates to 76p. The in the ground valuation that existed last year has not depleted. It ignores all the work Pensana and its contractors have done since that point. It excludes the upcoming COOLA resource additions and everything done at Saltend that added value.

The fifth RNS is likely to be completion of FEED and subsequently cost data. This will give the most accurate production cost a that is absolutely necessary to obtain bonds and financing and the webinar was categoric that it would be transparent for everyone to go through the figures. The FEED also tightens up on production volumes strengthening target objectives of what design can deliver. It then sets the platform for institutions who may want to take part in the future equity raise.

If the company scores 5/5 on the RNS returns the share price should be in a far better place.

1. Ground conditions work conclude next week. The first RNS due is to confirm this issue has been de-risked.
2. Credit research reports are due to complete 2nd week of October. The CFO said the market would hear the results shortly after. This should confirm a better idea of the coupon rates on financing.
3. COOLA assay results should be completed early October giving an updated resource value.
4. Should either be ATF grant passing HMG review and awaiting Treasury decision. If its not a grant it should be a loan guarantee. We should know of this before the COP meeting.

CaneToad

Thanks for the previous on shorting as it makes sense.
I actually feel the current gas crisis and all the challenges happening of late and technological advances are arising at a good time to aid the FEED and other Wood reports on all the risk and factors that need to be taken on board. Its far better to have these hurdles now than in the middle of the project that is well beyond any design changes. Its better to think hard before all the real spending once funding is approved. Resources used to date had to be used and do not undermine the next stage.

The mine in the ground value is above the current price.