Member Info for Tornadotony

The start of Centamin going green. With additional battery storage it could provide power when its night. If the first solar wind farm is a success and its relatively easy to maintain, who knows they may build another one and be a carbon zero emitter a few years from now. Its virtually free energy after 3 years.

Rebought my previous 190p buy that I sold at 199p. Triple bottom held thus far on the 30 minute chart.

The average gold price bagged last month was probably 1770 ish. Centamin still holding that average as we start November. You would think this company is making a loss instead of bagging $500 an ounce mined and produced ($225 net profit). Around $7.5M profit for October alone. So they make 5.6p net profit at forward annualised rate. 19p a share is the cash they have in the bank. Removing the cash element to give 74p that equates to a forward PE on actual profit of 13.2p. Pre tax that is a 6.6 PE rate. Historically, CEY trades on 15PE post tax as a minima and 20 PE as a maxima. This gives a trading range of 103-117p on the forward earnings. It is a seriously undervalued stock against its own past trading ranges against its projected earnings.

As the conference gets underway there is an appeal in many quarters whether it is voiced by front line island states in the pacific, public youth across the globe that face decades of consequences in the decisions now being taken, the part of the political elite that want to deliver change and appeal for this to happen, industry who want to deliver it and the proportion of the wealthy who see the wisdom in financing a climate protection agenda, we are all on the front line. Every shareholder here here is a small part of it and we can only hope that those with the greatest part to deliver climate protection change set in motion the means for that to happen in the coming weeks and months. We are now fighting our own version on the beaches ( from rising sea levels), the air (which hold more carbon dioxide) and everywhere else to protect our planet and the future of others that we all one day leave behind.

I compared Pensana to Synairgen (a covid-19 therapy hitting the news when Pensana was launched July 2020). The chart pattern has a great correlation over the last 3 months. What do they have in common. About to hit the market big time in 3 months. They relied on placings to get where they currently are. They have a big share holder and virtually no institutional holdings, they both need to raise finances to grow. Synairgen is at huge risk of being taken over by big pharma and has projected success outcome of 80% with its Covid anti-viral therapy. So two stocks in entirely different sectors yet exhibit the same daily fluctuations and remain close together. Perhaps Covid-19 cures and climate change protection stocks have the attention of a lot of ordinary investors like us and what we see is our behaviour and bias to either invest or trade.

Chinasyndrome

I use resistance and support lines instead of candlesticks as traders and some investors use them and act upon them. You may have noticed that Pensana does well on Monday's of late. Tony

Lost track of how many times gold drops on the last day of trading in the month. The cause is usually associated with a big drop in buy side volume in China as they tidy up the monthly trading book. Having just checked Shanghai volume appears to be around 4-5% off on the previous day. There is usually an 85% chance that the first day of trading in the new month will see a rebound in the gold price. What I can not get over is the copper prices going down when we have a massive drop in copper supplies in warehouses.

Apologies in advance if all of this has been written before.
With 9,000 UK Patients currently in hospital with Covid-19 and a proportion of these being double vaccinated, there is a possibility that we are creating sub cohort in the current P3 trial of double vaccinated recovery rates who received Synairgen's beta interferon nebuliser therapy against a small placebo number and this of course may be expanded in the course of the activ-3 trial. The net result is that we have more than just a product for patients with waning vaccination antibodies, but may be providing value to those who have genetic vulnerabilities where double vaccination, despite having generated antibodies with the vaccine, are still susceptible to serious progression of Covid-19 infection and require ICU care. This would give the Synairgen product a far greater value in the toolkit and a more precise clinical application for the fraction of patients that are not getting the efficacy from vaccinations they had hoped for. Although P3 may complete in November there may be some value in having a second extended arm to support what may be early observation data which could be accelerated via an emergency use protocol. All the best for the weekend Tony

No response from company just before COP26 on really basic issues like do they have a policy ambition. No response from Azeri Government to allow AAZ to proceed with its copper mining approvals that are needed as we enter a global copper supply collapse. This is a good future growth share if management and Azeri Government were a lot more responsive and active.

Of course their instead there short position before it gets corrected.

https://literature.rockwellautomation.com/idc/groups/literature/documents/br/ssb-br011_-en-p.pdf

A BFS was relevant before the concept of Saltend came along to deliver a far higher processed value product. Once the Saltend project was added it became absolutely necessary to do a FEED study as the project was far more complex. This has been explained by the company. The accuracy of FEED over a BFS is highly significant and those providing finance would heavily weight a FEED study findings over a rough estimate BFS assessment, so a decision was taken to deliver what financiers wanted. Of course those investing in the company know all this and bother to do research and listen to company presentations and webinars. Those wanting to short the stock have a different agenda. They also know if a big company took over Pensana there short position would be smashed and they would face a serious margin call on their leveraged position. Hence their desperation just as we come to the start of the COP meeting on Monday.

Forming a trading range between 190-198p. Oscillating consolidation which is good to see at this time. Incredibly the last trading day of October is tomorrow and into last patient dose month.

Retracement versus Reversal

1. Activity - Retracement is profit taking trades (tend to be small volume). Reversal is very large sell trades usually by Institutions.
Yesterday the pattern was Retracement on Pensana chart.
2. Money Flow- Buying interest on decline is retracement and for reversal its a high net sell volume.
Yesterday the net sell volume was just 40k of sell trades and was tiny and so is a retracement.
3. Chart pattern- Retracement does not have a distinct pattern where as a reversal like at a double top has a pattern.
Yesterday there was no kick off pattern to trigger activity and so it is a retracement.
4. Short interest is no change for a retracement and is a declarable increase on a reversal.
We do not have any evidence on this criteria as it takes days for declarations to be made.
5. Time Frame, a retracement is sudden and quick where as a reversal is slower and runs for over two weeks.
Yesterday the move again suggests a retracement at this time.
6. Fundamentals have not changed favours retracement where as an RNS published change in fundamentals is a reversal response. Yesterday activity was no change in fundamentals and was a retracement.
7. Activity- Retracements happen after large gains where as reversals happen anytime. The gain from 72p to 117p was so large that it triggered a retracement move.
8. Candles in the chart pattern. The candles have a number of spinning tops and we had that at one hourly all morning today and frequently yesterday and is retracement and reversals have fully engulfing candles in the descent with no spinning tops.

Overall 6 out of 8 are definite retracement indicators. 1 is probable for retracement and 1 can only be confirmed next week.

Something to be cheerful about. Come on Shanta bottom out on the SP and start a rally.

Its a shame when newspapers and banking brokers rate Pensana as the best investment as we enter COP26 conference and we have imbecile trolls dumping the boards with mis-information.

Steve

I believe a lot of retail buyers are acquiring physical gold out there as a genuine concern about inflation. Every pullback on gold of late is probably being met with real physical orders getting placed. If they want to make gold cheaper in the paper market, more physical will get bought. At some point the ratio of paper ounces to physical gold has to be readjusted and allow a higher gold price to match with everything else going up in price. Tony

Chinasyndrome

My 48p comment was on a different model of resources in the ground in Angola back in September 2020 which used a methodology that I apply on exploratory miners on pre-production. Basically so called scrubland has material value in the REOs it contains on JORC criteria before any mining infrastructure is built. The company had increased its value through exploration by 230% and gave us 48p a share or so and AWF bought its slice of the company. Tony

ST

Great to have you in here.

Tony

here instead of hear in previous

Theorist
Its extraordinary for you to expect Pensana was going to be named for a grant at Saltend for a mere $35M in a budget speech. Nobody wrote on hear of an expectation beforehand. The Teeside wind farm deal was £107M which was just above the £100M cut off as just about everything I heard was higher than that.

The scrubland in Angola which you put just to offend and provoke investors has an in the ground value as a resource and we have gone over this many times. It equates to around 48p a share (September 2020 RRE prices) and that was the price or near about AWF paid for their 21.6% share holding (when taking dilution from placings is taking into account). The resource to reserve valuation is likely to add much further on that value. The company has its own MREC methodology and has planning approval for Saltend also has a tangible value. The COOLA site is to have its resources added and these include other REOs in higher concentrations that are desperately needed by the electronics industry . The COOLA resource when reported adds 16p or so to the share price for in the ground value. The placing in June gave a valuation of 120p and dismissing it out of hand is rejecting all the design work, logistic planning and all the preliminary ground works both in Angola and Saltend. These developments I have seen in other stocks typical double the share price over resource that again supports the June 2021 placing value. Finally rare earth prices have doubled since September 2020 and that can not be ignored either.

My comment about GE has hit a nerve and anyone looking into it can see why they might be doing a lot of talking with Pensana. Perhaps it an off take or maybe they would want to secure something a lot more.