Member Info for Tornadotony

It looks good.

For HZM to crash in its price when its not mining anything and only constructing for a future in two years time tells us the following.

1. The recession is not only coming, but the market is pricing in a full blown panic and colossal recession.
2. The fall in copper is quite severe. If it continues it suggests market wide demand destruction and its longer term recession and could be 2-3 years.
3. Total market demand destruction means very few people buy any car, nothing gets built, the banks seize up with no future lending, we have widespread sovereign defaults and currencies possibly the pound collapses. Climate change initiatives are met through rationing energy which creates semi lockdown state through affordability to do anything and authority governance gets applied.
4. The company may say it will build a future mine from its earnings, but that depends on the future demand profile. If its not there then the company pays off debt as planned and at the current price is probably trading at 3PE for a 20 year mine output. If there is greater demand than it makes sense to take out a long term bond to cover half of it so they can supply what the market needs for a price the company could profit from and some free cash flow for other purposes.
5. If they follow the original plan the current forward PE is at 1 for earnings generated 8 years or so from now. So this is like Fresnillo when it was 132p or whatever 15 years ago. A case of sticking shares away and ignoring them like it was a gold bar and finding out its doubled or tripled and covered 10 years inflation at a future date. Its the hold and do nothing ploy.

If the recession fears are overplayed as the market loves volatility, then HZM will eventually go back up. If traders think the printing presses for FIAT will get lively again, its buy the dips and trade and rebuy back and investors to do average downs.

I did not make any bets.

Spotted my mistake it should have been that we should get back to 15p!.

ontarget I was not making that inference at all. However lets see what happens to the gold price and other macro factors. The drop in copper is so bad that it is predicting a devasting recession if it keeps dropping from where it is now. Its also predicting a halt on all carbon reducing developments. I certainly hope we see a good recovery in the Shanta share price.

I thought POX 2 has to be built.

The percentage debt attributed to KAZ is far less than the 38-40% income that it provides. Russian assets earn less, have higher debt, and higher production costs. However they have some new assets and have considerable resources in the ground to be developed and they have the POX plant.

This was always going to be a 2023 story. I would be surprised if it was not a lot higher than 8-9p this time next year. In fact we may not get 15p if all goes well.

11.89% inflation rate and in the past 5 weeks the currency has devalued 13% against USD. USA itself has over 8% (and real inflation is probable similar to Brazil). The company debt line is USD and expenditure is in local, USD and other currencies. So in theory HZM should be delivering the mine within the budget profile. The mine is due to come on line when near all previous recessions have ended. It would be helpful to get an update that expenditure has anticipated inflationary costs and the company found enough mitigations to offset the risks. (Which I believe they have done so thus far). Tony

SunDrum

The message is not really for Theo, but for other readership. In fact how Theo responds exposes his dismissal behaviour in response to me, identifies either short interest activity or that he is engaged with a Pensana competitor is a probable cause. Not even an attempt to respect how intellectual property can be managed or challenge how maintaining secrecy status works. I have observed the behaviour repeatedly and the reason is that it requires work to make your point and he can not and does not want to be bothered yet he wants to diatribe on the Pensana board Tony

Theo

I once had responsibility for patent portfolio and its strategy and so forth in a big organisation. I can tell you a lot of patents are not worth the paper they are written on. Maintaining IP as a secret is appropriate thing to do providing its done for the correct reasons. The company initially reserved a patent application,but I have seen no evidence of filing and why on earth would you without a fully constructed plant and awaiting all the commissioning data. The company was also still try to improve parts of the process so they could recycle more chemical product.

HZM on the Hargreaves and Lansdown 3 month graph versus mining sector (tick price) is nearly identical on the retreat in share price index price valuations. It certainly has nothing to do with HZM. The drop with Glencore matched up to 6th July last week. Glencore share buying has managed to prop up its performance since that date.

pipedreamer

We are witnessing huge bets on the USD rising at a massive overbought state, we have the largest pull out on the gold sector since the summer of 2019 as the longs over shorts are now tiny in positional Comex contracts. We have short contracts at 25 to 1 leverage on huge volumes against gold. We have lost the 1800 support. They are throwing the kitchen sink at the entire sector. Same game as in Germany after WW1 of sell your gold and enjoy FIAT paper money soon to be pushed in wheelbarrows for a price of bread loaf.

As for Centamin, they report around the 21 July area. The key is having cash for the counter rally when everything hits the fan at some point in the next 90 days.

Of course the commodities have a huge future demand, unless the financial sector and political class abandon everything to do with climate protection as they see the price on delivering a solutions as being an impossibility. We have the UK possibly facing 40C for the first time this Sunday and we have pictures of the River Po in Italy virtually drying up. We have Spain and Portugal in a major drought and above 40C. The planet is going somewhere very warm in a hand basket which could lead to widespread famine. The joke of course is that speculators are treating gold as a commodity when many are buying it as a currency as their non-USA currencies blow up which eventually blows up the dollar as nobody else can then buy their expensive Treasuries including millions of Americans now living on bank overdrafts and waiting for more universal benefits.

How am I responding to all this. I have not sold any of my positions and breaking one of my rules. The rule I am breaking is moving huge amounts of cash into the stock portfolio and waiting to see what a mess the central banks and politicians make of all this. Cash in the bank is now becoming useless, but cash in the portfolio is now ammunition. God knows where the bottom is, but 79p buys a lot less then it did a year ago, but incredibly you can get 1 share in Centamin.

See if it can do better than last time.

http://www.ipdigit.eu/2013/10/secrecy-vs-patents-how-to-choose/

As far as I am aware the company have chosen to keep their formulation for the sulphate process and others as trade secrets. Providing the company can assure us that it has the greatest value as trade secret and they regard this as as the safest and best way to protect their intellectual property, and rocky smith should have a good idea that it should be so than it is a valid policy for the company to take. Lynas have kept keep information as know how and secret in their own company as well.

DP

Talking at cross purposes. Your figures include LJ plus Saltend. I was talking about Saltend only in relation to its bond.
Tony

DP

I did not say it was patent approved. In fact I believe the company decided that the best intellectual property route was to maintain it as know how as they suspected China and USA for that matter would ignore patent filing protection or adopt a policy of filing picket patents so that Pensana could not adjust anything they had filed. My comment was reflecting the view at that point in time. Tony

DP

With regards to point 2, I am speaking from the view point of an investor who has seen timeline slips and have seen George in the last interview saying end of this quarter.

I recall a research project involving novel dental materials which involved a huge amount of chemistry testing. Hardness of materials are important in dentistry along with ease of application, shelf life, wear and tear on the material and lots more. I have come across experts who find it difficult to know where the cost benefit gets a bit marginal in carrying on. Its like oil painters who constantly adjust their painting or a writer who can not decide the best ending of a book. We only have so much time and that is a precious resource. I know you, that you know, that I am no moron. I can only assume you had a Friday night beer and letting off some steam. Tony

Mumbles and Tdav and of course our readers,
The company claims 92% recovery on NdPr oxides from Saltend processing. Whoever gives them money from institutional sources or for bonds will say show me the data for that 92% recovery claim. A figure like that can not be just plucked out of the air. If a competent source that has seen the data authorises financial support that it was derived by credible methodologies than this will get supported. We shall soon find out if that is the case. Tony

1. Either a placing, a bond or a bank loan or another loan from George like before.
2. George is trying to get perfection in a design. Someone has to call time and sign off the design as best as it is. The deadline really has to be in September as investors will argue this is not a PhD academic project.
3. All rare earth companies have been knocked down. The fall from rare earth mine ETFs matches the drop from 13.5 to where we are now. A further 3 month delay has its impacts. The share price is where it was when widespread looting was happening in SA in July 2021.