Member Info for Tornadotony

If it repeats we drop back to 11p area and rally up again for a fourth time.

Pallancata has been producing 10,000 ounces equivalent per quarter in the last five or six or so reports. I believe Amarillo will recover that output plus what it needs to repay the debt attributed at a lower production cost. The 8 million ounce mine is Volcan. We should see an exploitation plan in Q4. I wonder if they will do a joint venture with a major company and settle for 4 million each with the new partner paying more than HOC to deliver the project. Overall HOC should still rally with other miners if precious metals prices recover.

Amarillo will be in full production around June/July 2024 at the latest. Guidance says H1 2024.

The key is what is the value of Volcan if they sold it helps provide a valuation floor? The company debt has increased by around $100M net in H1 2022. They are promising a lot to hit targets with one of the Peru mines now approaching end of life and will need to be decommissioned. They also have a lot of costs on-going as they deliver the new mine. The other unknown is the future gold and silver price.

If precious metals stay low than HOC is going nowhere and may decline in value further.
If gold per ounce rises back above $1850 and silver fights its way back to say $22.50 then HOC could edge back to 105p tops imop. Providing they are also hitting their guidance targets on costs and production. For this to happen the USD needs to drop back a bit and ease pressures being placed on emerging market economies.

All the above bar amarillo is just an opinion as nobody knows what will unfold.

This person just trades CEY stock and wants a lower price to get an entry and sell higher. He probably believes the dollar will continue with an exponential hyperbolic rise and gold will fall against the mighty dollar, followed by everything else at a global level that is outside of Russia. In fact the only thing that will go up in this scenario is coal miners as the world will give up on energy transition and reopen all the coal burning power stations and import lots of coal from places like Poland. The whole world is going to somewhere hot in a basket in any case, so wildtiger thinks we may as well make it a reality. by making a few hundred quid he can get absolutely plastered in the pub afterwards especially after the Weatherspoon's lamb Rogan josh with the rubbery poppadum's.

TGL

Nothing intrinsically wrong with RBWR. If folks are unhappy about certain posts as disruptive behaviour they can report instead of responding to it and it will finally stop as an account can be closed. Tony

Dao,

I have tried to encourage DP to stop what he does in a constructive and humorous ways, but he is stubborn and displays some attributes that he has not fully matured in some of his outlook. If we all exercised democracy in a way that offered no respect to others we would be seen as being selfish and inconsiderate. In the end its killing the message boards for everybody having to deal with biased sources of information written by representatives that are ultimately sourced from Chinese competitors. This has been problem for 18 months and is likely to continue. RBWR has also been on the receiving end of it Burundi last year. Nobody came on this board for months on end to repeat false discredited publications and sources. George B also needs to be careful in not getting involved in the slanging matches towards other RRE companies when he delivers responses to his own delays on delivery on deadlines that he himself had set. Tony

Thanks pacifico, I missed the conference call.

ChinaSyndrome

I am fairly sure DP has invested in RBW and he has put a lot of time into it and does share knowledge here. He somehow believes that Pensana is stealing Rainbow Rare's lunch. The fact is the market has a 40% supply deficit and if all the potential producers which are probably around 8 to 10 actually arrive to meet the future demand the market at worse case would be matched on supply and demand metrics or would be just marginally under supplied. If either company did not exist, I for one would not double up investment in a single company. I know Theo is an investor in Creo Medical a company I know extremely well but I am not invested in. Both DP and Theo are genuine investors, but they both take a dislike to certain CEOs, Chairpersons who behave or follow a strategy they do not like. They enjoy goading and provoking other investors for personal amusement. They get away with it on rare earth boards as they are relatively quiet. Both Theo and DP have enjoyed some success in some investments, but they have also had failures like all genuine investors. I therefore do not agree they are China government agents on a troll farm or paid by competitor entities to down ramp other rare earth boards.

I have stopped sharing important information on the Pensana board so that DP and Theo are not aware of what I manage to learn. I certainly know of many facts that neither are aware of and have decided to keep that way. All the best Tony

Amarillo mine with its 900,000 reserves ounces of gold and 1.2M ounces of resources should come on stream in actual production by June 2024. This should fully replace Pallancata plus 10% from tired other mines. The additional permits may decide Pallancata's fate. If they get approved then the mine could run for another 12 months and close summer of 2023. The other remaining issue is Volcan. In H1 AISC was $100 higher, but the sale of prices were also $100 higher so profitability overall should have been the same, but of course is being spent on mine construction in Brazil.

I have averaged down below 95p as the Berenberg target of 100p seems possible. We need some kind of recovery in precious metals prices.

Bought yesterday at 11.17p with quite a few others. Hopefully a return to the glorious high of 16.xp.

Averaged down buy at 74.x.

They may soon be starting on that high grade gold vein. My average is around 10p higher. Once folks cotton on when commodity prices stabilise this could go up 60% from here. One way of recovering in part our own inflation hit.

Typo corrected

Silver gets a bounce as well as gold. USA data is showing signs of a recession with job losses and manufacturing output falling. The high USD is probably having an adverse impact for exporters.

got instead of go.

If they reduce the tax take over two years to give it back they will end up with the usual taxable income from what they go at 70,000-80,000 ounces and except that extra production tax take is VAT off set.

What I thought was interesting was that Eric thought that the company was trading at 20% of its book value. Encouraging us to park money in Shanta.

USA jobs being lost and Philly index on minus 12 so manufacturing starting to shut down in parts of USA. USA joining Europe on a recession.

So as interest rates go up so does the debt interest payments. You have to ask yourself how many interest rate rises they can pile on. UK industry, especially smaller companies are on their knees along with the public state services. Incredibly gold and silver are still reducing in value.

Hopefully buying Shanta shares before its to late.

Another method is to look at USA money supply at M1 and M3. A further method is the ratio of USA 30 year treasuries over 10 year levels. The treasury rates ratio suggests gold is approaching a bottom like in 2018. The USA money supply data is two months old. It was suggesting gold at $2020 per ounce was fair value,but we do not know how fast the FED is moving money out of economy through the higher interest rates which encourage debt getting paid off and what is being done on QT. Perhaps we need to use all these kind of methods to get an understanding where gold real value should be.

If you convert major assets into gold ounces such as property. Gold is certainly not expensive. If we take past peaks in gold like 2011 a similar valued property at that time would cost say 340-380 ounces of gold. Today its 570-580 ounces by my estimates and when gold was really cheap like December 2015 that asset would be 720 ounces or nearly double at the peak of being over valued. At $ 1820-1840 gold prices were on the median. They are now 7% below that mean which gives a $1694 gold price or 580 ounces for say a nice property asset. Gold can go lower in value, but then everything else is more over priced. Gold has to correct at some point back to its mean. So either everything else collapses in price to where gold is now or it retains its value and gold has to go back up. In the 1970's gold became hugely over valued and it took two decades to get to the metrics I have described. The time to be buying gold is when its valuation falls below the mean of major assets that are around you. In my opinion we are now 7% below the mean and the question is how far does the market take it. $1380 gold per ounce is the nadir price of December 2015, however an elevated USD currency over today, raises that price higher so any asset that you measure has to be converted into USD.