Member Info for Tornadotony

DP

The MREC on sulphate process was not published as was being subject to patent protection. Rocky Smith was at the helm of the company which Rainbow referred to in that latest interview and George was highlighting what went wrong back in 2012. Rocky Smith went on to several other rare earth companies and he was at the helm of another company overtaken by Molycorp. The issue is whether the sulphate MREC using the resin approach replicates recovery rates in a big plant. I suspect this has been heavily peer reviewed before any Saltend bond could be issued. Without the FEED study report in full I can not answer the questions you raise. Rocky Smith himself was not found culpable of what went wrong after an investigation. Nobody is going to offer a bond if its a risk of being a white elephant.

Large institutional investors are not going to put their monies into this if such risks as you imply exist. I also feel George was deflecting criticisms for Rainbow Rare delay by chucking a dead cat on the table.

Lets just see what happens to the Bond application for Saltend and Carbon Trust accredits the application and the company tells what happens next.

The company established MREC protocols back in October 2020 of which created the sulphate process they are using. They have been upgrading them to include recycling of such items as sulphuric acid which was mentioned in an April 2022 presentation. The mine in Angola uses hydroelectric power from the grid. The failure rate in using gypsum stacks as a source of RRE has a high failure rate due to poor recoveries which RBWR may have resolved. Pensana has a recovery rate from the MREC studies which at the mine delivered a high grade ore to Saltend. They have in their team one of the few people outside of China and Lynas to deliver a working Saltend plant. The piloting in the laboratory was done two years ago. The FEED programme will have gone into this in fine detail. Any due diligence process for $250M in bonds would go through all this. DP stop writing things you have not gone into detail with in companies your not invested in and wasting all our time. Its like somebody writing a lot of garbage on gypsum stacks on the Rainbow rare earth board and not bothering to find out what the company was doing. Incidentally USA often makes those kind of blunders as they have too much money. In the UK, companies have to think before they spend it. Surely you know that to be the case.

In the presentation - PEA study is to complete by 30 September, 2022 ( It has taken 3 months longer but is delivering a 65% recovery rate). This provides Revenue, Opex and capital cost data. (He mentioned in the presentation this was a key inflection point for the company. The pre-feed study is to complete end of February 2023. The bankability study completes at the end of 2023.

Although the gold is within a concentrated large vein it is the 15g/t at 54 metres that gives feed grades of ores that would be eventually blended with open pit grades. Having such underground grades for blending helps provide consistent output overall. Ore used from underground in a quarter production at Centamin peak days was near 7g/t. Other underground existing grades may be 3g/t. So blending just the underground grades from 15g/t to 6g/t is a decent volume of ore to go with open pit grade. The other open pits at 2.9g/t are quite effective in blending open pit as well especially as they have shallow depths to remove waste ore. It makes a big difference to Centamin to have 1g/t open grade being processed than having it at 0.7g/t. Certainly potential to deliver several quarters of reasonable gold output. It also helps replace depletion rates of the Centamin mine.

I have written to the company this evening. The Amvest presentation suggested mid-July for the credentials of being approved for a Green Bond, which I assume comes from the Carbon Trust. Paul Atherley on more than one occasion suggested this was the last hurdle for Saltend getting its bond. I have asked for procedural clarity on how this works so that we all understand it. If we know the methodology, we can anticipate why and how things get delayed and better manage our own expectations as well as assess the company performance.

I asked if he could give us a timeline brief and what we could look forward to and he has responded. I may not have been the only one who wrote to him. Speaking for myself, although I think some of you here would agree, I was pleased that he has touched base with us. Tony

I am astonished it has not rerated. What has been given to the company to develop and takeover has a value. All those tonnes of copper in the ground should add at least $20M this morning on the EV. The company will gradually prove up the resource and its new reserves. The company will then be available to give 5 year profiles of production output. AAZ should be able to deliver good dividends and maintain cash in the bank and free cash flow for more exploration. I am hoping it will gradually get the recognition the company deserves.

Hopefully the share price will get a re-rate. This is a huge amount of copper to have in the ground.

The clown will soon be out.

This may have resolved an important concern I had. Great to have this kind of info and the pit wall when they sell paper gold to support USD.

It certainly kills off the recycling market which was already in the intensive care unit.

Niklol

My partner owns the HOC position in our portfolio and collected the recent divi and it was around 114p. I am finding the gold eagle articles suggesting Q1 2023 could be a better time for precious metals miners. The only person who can decide what to do is you on HOC. I have 17% of my broker funds in cash with equity positions and keep a cash reserve that is nearly 100% the size of the existing portfolio. It does concern me when investors on here back all on one stock and sometimes take positions on leverage and debt which I certainly do not have the risk tolerance to do. We are in different circumstances however, I bet a number of 108-120p holders are sitting on their hands at this time. regards Tony

The company has some cash in the bank over any debt. It has some assets in the ground it can sell. It has acquired other assets that have a material financial value. All of these equate to somewhere like 60-65p at fire sale levels. In addition the company had a good Q1 and the Q2 income overall should keep the company within its annual forecast range. Q3 may be challenging but things could improve in Q4. So with the company likely to be earning around $25-$35M net of tax, the HOC share price should be nearing a lower range in value. It should report 3rd week of July with hopefully reasonable results.

I hold some HOC but its 1.6% of my portfolio. I do not see as a crypto stock but acknowledge its harder to assess and read into compared to some other precious metal miners.

Tony

I think Carbon Trust gives advice on the accreditation of bonds.

Thanks for the base case Rich. The issue to have in mind is that value of our pound is going down hill fast. It may soon be a race to get out of cash into stocks again. It looks as if the short positions are getting closed State side as I write. Looks like the wide boys do not like me writing about their $7M short trades in particular ETFs. When you shine the light where its dark, lower forms of life often disappear. Enjoy the weekend everybody Tony

Contrarian

The World Bank have been absolutely spot on with nickel prices. They predicted a 28,000 price spike in 2022 and it falling back to 21,000 by 2024 and they were correct on 2020 and 2021 prices. HZM have run their projections below $21,000 /tonne if memory serves me correct.

I believe your bet is mine delivery delays or problems. I was quite impressed with all the planning the company has done. Risks are always present and none of us do not know what we don't know. I will be taking my chances that any problems are immaterial. I can only thank you for delivering discount prices if you are in the short brigade. I will of course be buying lots more.
The delays in the green agenda have been to do with green washing by certain companies and HZM avoided those elephant traps.
Tony

ETF short activity on rare earths, nickel miners and anything that could be linked to green revolution, climate protection or stocks that would become vulnerable if normal relations with Russia resumed are being shorted through the ETF indices. I wonder what idiot is behind that wonderful move to short the pants off metals that are critically needed and in short supply 18 months down the track to create the next wave of inflation. I added at 122p as I planned to do so the other day. Still hold cash war chest. Its painful seeing losing positions, but will now add when the shorts starts closing off.

Much appreciated sharing your AGM notes.

In the meantime its the ETF which may be the battle ground area. This is not about individual company valuations.

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REMX?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link

This was very important good news. Tilly is an excellent choice. It was vital this issue was resolved. It is a major de-risk out of the way.

Second RNS was covering the major risks and gave us a heads up. There was some very good news in that RNS and there was uncertainties as well.

The company is still working on Kaz/Russia split. Another possibility is that someone buys particular Russian assets and so the company drifts towards being a Kazakhstan company. If they sell the odd mine it could reduce debt and essentially retreat over time. The first target is to get above 50% Kaz.