Member Info for tomvisual

Is Boohoo on Kings Street Manchester? I think it is.

AZN reporting today. Comment on R4 Today at 6:31 states that AZN is growing faster than other comparable pharmas because of its oncology growth.
Interesting that Awacta's main focus BC (Before Covid) was oncology! Unbelievable!!
This share just continues giving on lots of fronts.

CS...
On your visits to NCYT board, did you manage to ascertain the sensitivity and specificity of the NCYT "gold standard" pcr test assay?

Lets hope its us.
Booho are also Manchester based!

Rns
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/tidm/headline/14632432

Winter is coming ..moving into second wave.
Article on R4 Today (29/7/20 6:46) with Prof Roger Kirby advises covid 19 is a multi mortality disease. Now informed that blood clotting leads to encephalitis. Devastating consequences.
Mass testing required ...
Test, test, test

And to think Sona share price has increased 5 fold inspite of their LFT usage complexity!
Test, test, test

EnergyShares ....
Thars the first time I have heard the LFT described as the equivalent of the PoC pregnancy test.
Something that folks are used to using, unlike the Cytiva/Sona implementation which was not what I was expecting!!
https://youtu.be/wnRW94aruKk
Very pleased now with this confirmatory information on the Avacta design implementation!
Test, test, test

One comment in the papers today is the need to tackle the backlog of treating cancer and other medical conditions delayed by covid19 and to unleash economic growth to help those that have lost their jobs.
Awacta start stage 1 trials this winter into their cancer treating therapy and their LFT will instill confidence with the people that this public health crisis can effectively be managed and become controlled.
Awacta will be firing on all cylinders this Winter. Whats not to like in this share??
Test, test, test

From one Harvard study, >60% sens, >94% spec needed by the scientific community.
Quite a low requirement for mass testing.
For me, the main requirement is speed of test result. The whole system of centralised testing is wrong.
PCR test is "gold standard" but results are 5-7 days delayed. You cannot provision for mitigation with this level of built in delay.
Speed of result is the key for mass testing. 5-15 minutes required.
PoC test needs to be done at home with relative ease. Sona test to complicated.
Cost. With low cost you get more frequency of test - children going to school need testing on a daily basis.
Hundreds of millions of tests required as this is not going away.
With the news from Spain requiring holiday makers to isolate for 14 days visited the EZJ board this morning. Investors are dreading tomorrow. Awactas test is needed to instill confidence and get the world economy back up and running.
Test, test, test

The US really do need rapid Antigen tests for their test and trace. I recall that 2 to 3 days is the upper limit, for results to be available, for testing to be effective in suppressing an outbreak and 1 week, as mentioned many times in the fiercebiotech article is just not effective. Also, at least 80% of contacts need to be traced. The US has problems because of the sheer numbers they need to test and trace.
RT-PCR may be the 'gold standard', but reagents and machines are not in adequate supply, so alternative tests are required.
A new 'gold standard' will then emerge. Awacta's!
Test, test, test

Did S D Biosensor have a fast test??

Article at https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/import-licenses-for-covid-19-kits-of-3-firms-cancelled-16-suspended-by-dcgi/story-jk8JXeQX1AIdb3wm6jtpnM.html

Close 130p. MM lowering in the dying seconds

This Guardian Science podcast has details of sewage testing and that it may be a way to do disease surveillance for a number of diseases, not just Covid-19:
https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlZ3VhcmRpYW4uY29tL3NjaWVuY2Uvc2VyaWVzL3NjaWVuY2UvcG9kY2FzdC54bWw&ep=14&episode=NWYxNTU3MTM4ZjA4Y2UzOWNhOTc4MjIz
Avacta has lots of irons in the fire!!
Test, test, test

Phantom25 .. great video.
According to this scientific community, its all about the speed of getting the test result according to the video.
A saliva test and 10 min LFT test and Sens > 60%.
We must be able to tick all these boxes NOW!!!
The mantra of "Test, test, test" was correct. Prof Peto called for millions of tests per day in April.
Looks like everybody hss been bogged down in specmanship. Seen it before. Blinded by the obvious.
Perhaps a mini not a Rolls Royce solution is indeed required. I thought the ferrari solution was good enough, now it looks like a mini solution will be equally as good!!! We must be there.
Test, test, test

Sona now up 250% (3.3 to 11.1) since announcement of their "complicated" LFT implementation.
Happy to wait for the best LFT!

Dr AS stated Avacta meet the fda regulatory requirement in the presentation on the maths.
Quite happy to wait as I can now appreciate the trade offs they are reviewing - see previous post.
Test,test,test

AlwaysSwimming ...
Working through maths - deriving equations for NPV and PPV in terms of Sensitivity, Specificity and Prevalence for a better understanding of the trade-offs that Avacta may be considering.
What the mathematical modelling tells me is interesting:
The critical importance of high SENS to achieve high NPV, with high SPEC being less critical,
although still important.
The critical importance of high SPEC to achieve high PPV, with high SENS being less critical,
although still important.
High PPV is important to avoid False Positives.
Increasing PPV is associated with decreasing Sensitivity. No explanation for this behaviour, however, it is consistent with the expression for (required) SENS that has been derived.
If Prevalence is high then the expression for PPV shows that Specificity can be very close to 0.
Interesting conclusions so far.
Still validating the model. No doubt lots of trade offs and benefits to consider ...
Perhaps Required Sensitivity and Specificity will depend on the purpose of the test?
As I said interesting conclusions purely from the maths!!
Test, test, test

Other gold stocks have risen 20% over the padr few days, Condor (CNR) and Highland (HGM) as two.
Precious metals are on the rise (10% at SLP for example).
GGP have traded sideways for weeks. The 20% rise is in line with the market.
It is now GGP turn to rise no doubt dramatically.