Track and Trace4 Aug 2020 16:39
Dr David Nabarro R4 Today 4/8/20 @8:12-8:20 on mathematical modelling and the virus.
I recall Dr Tedros, back In February or March, giving a list and saying, 'Do it all', much like Dr Nabarro is now.
Dr Nabarro:
* Process of testing, tracing and isolation, that involves a joint effort between public and authorities... Joint action by everyone to stop further spikes and surges from hobbling further opening of society and economy.
* A comprehensive approach to prevent transmission through things like physical distancing, face masks, hygiene, keeping yourself out of the way if you've got symptoms. You need the response capacity of test trace and isolate. You need to care for the people most at risk, because you want to stop mortality and you need to have everybody onside.
* Consistent communication... Level with people. Don't give false hopes. Make it clear that we are all in it together.
* We don't have an alternative and that's the point I want to get across to everybody. This virus isn't going away for the foreseeable future.
It would be interesting to see Dr Nabarro in a prolonged debate with BJ - not that that would ever happen because BJ runs away from debate, by such measures as prorogueing Parliament or just answering different questions to those asked.
I also listened to the interview before Dr Nabarro on R4 Today (4/8/20) with Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths on re-opening schools. From Googling, a link to the paper in the Lancet is:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30250-9/fulltext
It is worth recording Dr Panovska-Griffiths' numbers on Test and Trace. For the week ending 22/07, test and Trace in England 'achieved':
* 81.4% of infected people contacted.
* 81.3% of those contacted reported their contacts.
* 75% of reported contacts were contacted.
So 0.814*0.813*0.75=0.496
or equivalently 49.6% of the contacts of people who tested positive were traced. Not even half and it needs to be 68%, minimum, of contacts of the infected who are traced.
These numbers need to go up on billboards all over the country to highlight that the government's response is not, as it should be, to get local test and trace fully funded, so that doors can be knocked up and down the country, but the usual: evasion.
There need to be questions to MPs.
I also listened to Simon Clarke, Minister of State, Minister for Regional Growth and Local Government, who had the unenviable task of following Drs Panovska-Griffiths and Dr Nabarro on R4 Today.
Unfortunately, Clarke was well down to the truly lamentable standard that I expected:
* Trotting-out the 184,000 people contacted. No, no, no, no: it is the total percentage of people traced that matters, which is only just over 50%, not the minimum of 68%, I thought I heard, that need to be traced.
* Clarke excellently illustrated Nabarro's implied point that: the UK government needs to level with people, rather than obfuscating.
Test, test, test
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