Member Info for Tobin

We hope Vat moneys come in soon..

The new well cleans up.... if it does it makes more wells more attractive.

The pump will hopefully make quite a difference.

And even with the LNG route TXP has to send gas the cascadura and coho gas under teh present contract but that expires soon and we know that others have got $4/mcf since TXPs contract, so good uplift should be in the offing there, or it goes the LNG route...

The underlying argument for TXP is that these blocks it hold has a lot of bypassed hydrocarbon. In the past they were only looking for oil and with modern understanding of geology and modern geophysics there are many other targets.

To a fair extent TXP has been proven right; if it could just get it out of the ground...

High risk/reward money has certainly not been coming to AIM for a few years ... crypto, AI, gold

But I don't see the end for hydrocarbons yet, even with the huge growth in solar, that will be even greater with the new sodium battery technology. Even coal consumption has not started to go down which it has to do if we have any chance of reducing global warming rate.

Just looking back the first well on Carapal Ridge came on at over 20mcf/day. I think the others similar hence the size of the facility.

Maybe to much to ask for...

As I recall part of the deal included money put by Shell in a fund for decommissioning.

I attended the AGM again this year.

John Singer discussed the head winds and the discount at length. There has been some general reflection on the business by the board,. It seems less emphasis on ESG that was around a few years ago, but a general conclusion that venture capital is far from dead and they should not be shutting up shop just yet!

Part of the review was the change of logo from PIP, that dates back to Pantheon International Participation days to PIN, the ticker. Part of an ongoing policy to make PIN more approachable and understandable.

The board recognise that the underlying NAV has not performed as well as hoped for over the past 3years.

Speaking to some of the board members after the meeting they seemed sanguine about prospects though. There appears to be a general feeling that there has been something of a cycle in the venture capital markets but that there is evidence of "green shoots" .

Also that the boom in valuations for a small number of AI stocks has affected the overall market.

I spoke to John Burgess who stepped down from the board after his maximum 9 year stint. He has some 4million shares in Pantheon, by far the largest of any board member, and nearly a million more than at the last annual report (so some £14million, mainly held via trusts). He admitted his own advisers felt he was far more over weight in Pantheon than he should be but he clearly was more than content with this.

The discount gives opportunities to buy backs and continued uplifts of disposals of over 20% suggests that valuations of investments are as always conservative.

Pantheon remains a company with a lot of expertise and a great history; an attractive way of getting exposure to part of the market, with exposure to some 500 companies, that is otherwise difficult to access.

Though it doesn't sound as if I am as overweight as John Burgess it is a holding that I am happy to continue with and doesn't give me sleepless nights.

Thanks rossannan, so are you shorting the stock? There are always risks, and there are risks with shorting, big risks. This stock is very unlikely to go to zero, though anything is possible but there is a risk that the predicted cash flow comes through and a number of the many targets come through.

With that the SP could go up 10 fold from here.

Out of interest what are your thoughts of where the stock will be in 1year, 2years, 3years?

Good to see a 3.8% increase in NAV for the month, 18.1p though not unexpectedly most, 13.9p, was FX.

More being spent on buybacks to hopefully reduce the 35% discount.

I think we can see the "wall of cash" coming, but we need to see these new wells deliver. Even then I think that will not be enough and we will need to see the response to compression and more importantly a successful well on CB. That maybe enough to convince investors again of the fundamental thesis of TXP that this whole area is hydrocarbon rich but hasn't been explored for decades and with modern seismic interpretation that there maybe literally dozens of targets.

It’s August.

The markets are irrational.

This is an opportunity.

The compressor should make a big difference; the obvious question is why it has not been put in already?

Initially it looks like that it was thought that it would not be necessary, or that they would get away with it for a couple more years according to PB.

Of course with CB facility I suspect they hoped that it wouldn't be necessary and they could feed into their compressors? But that would mean a change in the contract which isnt happening.

Anyway, with the compressor and new wells Cascadura should be able to deliver 60mmcf/d and more as the initial high pressure from new wells can be diverted around the compressor (PB in the presentation)

So in 8-9months time TXP should be delivering maybe 75mmcf/d from Casc. At $2/mcf to TXP thats $150k/d.

And central block hopefully with a new well at 10mmcf/day, pushing gas into the LNG contract when they deliver over 22mmcf/d, TXP should see 25mmcf/d @ some $4/mcf, or $100k/d.

Total $250k/day, $90million/year

2years and we are looking at 10-12wells on Cascadura, presumably piping to CB to use their compressor and processing capacity.

With CB TXP could be looking at 120-140mmcf/day if the Cascadura wells deliver what CB wells delivered on compression (Initially the 4 wells delivered 80mmcf/day but settled to 50-60mmcf/d).

If this all goes to LNG with net to TXP of $4-5/mcf then $500-600kk/day, of $200million/year.

Then there are 20+targets including cretaceous targets.

All for a market cap of £36.5million??

But is still a significant dilution., over 20%.

but the central block deal effectively doubles the value of gas the company has in the ground, which is worth $100s of millions to the company.

I have bought today.

Thanks Troajan, an interview I missed.

The financial results are mixed. The underlying NAV is up 6% but only 2% after Fx.

Charlotte Morris noting that the last 3years have been " challenging", the NAV has hardly changed especially if you take into account that there has been increase in NAV from share buybacks.

The wider market, especially for tech has been really quite strong, so even a bigger question of why PIN has not delivered better results. This interview and the RNS do not imo tell me why and are there lessons to be learned.

There has been a number of changes in staff but unclear it this will make the difference.

Do we know the reserves of CB yet?

I have said this before, TXP looks a great long term investment, and so much better with CB. They are making $4/mcf from CB, and one day .. ok, a couple of years or so.. they will be making this and more from Cascadura. (only 20% vs 35% to Heritage). The p1, P2 reserves from Casc/Coho are 184000 mmcf, of 184million mcf. Thats pushing a $billion.

Yes, with the much tighter sands than expected that will take 10-20years to drain but that cash flow will come and will pay for the dozens of other targets they have across 149,000 acres.

These targets are based on modern interpretations of the geology and seismic in hydrocarbon rich ground.

It looks like they will drill new wells to fill of Coho from CB and then of CB.

All for a company with a MC of $37million? There is a lot of upside.

I am aware that Heritage take 35% from CB, I am using the net figure that certainly appears that it is net of the Heritage split. Or I don't see where else 35% would go.

If you disagree I suggest you post your own figures, and source.

PS I don't ramp.

From the last RNS:

"From January through April 2025, eleven LNG liftings (including associated liquids) were completed, totaling 2,207,696 MMBtu. An additional 11,065 MMBtu was sold into the domestic market. These volumes generated gross revenue of $13.6 million ($8.9 million net). After transportation and processing costs, gross revenue totaled $8.9 million ($5.8 million net). The Central Block also generated $1.0 million in gross revenues ($0.65 million net) from condensate sales at the facility, resulting in total gross revenue of $9.9 million ($6.4 million net) for the period. All sales volumes are subject to a 12.5 percent state royalty and applicable plant operating costs.

The LNG liftings and associated liquids achieved an average realized price of $6.15 per MMBtu, translating to a plant gate price of $4.00 per MMBtu after deductions. Domestic sales achieved an average net plant gate price of $4.33 per MMBtu. Condensate was sold at an average price of $48.49 per barrel.

Central block, only gas, slow decline likely still will be producing in 10years+. Over that time likely to be over 10mmcf/day on average. Total cash flow ?? $140million??.

But Central block will in a couple of years double the income from Cascadura, and Coho. More wells will be drilled in CB, and Coho before then; all will benefit from $$x2.

Ultimately TXP upside is the dozens of targets it has across the area, hydrocarbon rich and untouched with a drill guided with modern understanding of the geology and modern interpretation of the seismic.

Rossannan,

You stated..

"The current cash flow is insufficient to balance the unsafe level of the current debt, let alone any additional debt. "

But gave no figures.

https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/content/uploads/2025/05/TXP-Financial-Statements-March-31-2025-vF.pdf

Debt was some $33million, Central Block came with cash so the net cost was probably in the order of $25million, but then there was $ from the raise.

Debt is some $50million+, interest rate 7-8%.

Annual cost of interest on debt some $4million.

We have just seen cash flow from CB, just the gas, just CB... 17mmcf per day at $4/ mcf (mmBTU=1mcf ... or some $68,000/day.

Just the gas, just from CB will cover annual interest payments in about 2months.

DYOR ... please

Google found another bank with petroleum engineer as president, West Texas National Bank; they “serve the permian basin”.

Point being that not all banks are the same. Many commercial banks owe their reputation to serving certain sectors. This is certainly the case for the Republic bank. The government of T&T are heavily invested in the bank and the petroleum sector. The new government will not want to be seen not to be supportive of a company like TXP. With clear cash flow something will be sorted but I suspect new drilling will not be as quick as some would like.

Development: The 2 additional well pads, each for 4 wells. Do we know were these are?

PB mentioned drilling Coho from the central block. I presume one pad is for that and the other for central block development??

Do we know more?

LNG gas prices generally lower at this time of year, usually higher October-Feb.