Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
NAV 463p. A year ago it was 417p.
So looks like continues market beating 12%+ annual returns that it has done for decades.
The SP doesn’t reflect this. Discount is close on 50% now.
Fortunately I don’t need to sell, in fact I am buying back in. Obvious concerns over fall out of SVB but experience tells me that sell offs at times like this are over done and gives opportunities for managers .
There’s a strong future for gas, DEC are counting on producing for the next 50years..
If you believe the zero carbon lobby then this looks optimistic but there’s always carbon capture and storage that is much more doable for NG than say coal because NG produces half the CO2/kw of coal.
And even with a big ramp up of solar/wind there’s a big need for backup. Battery and hydrogen doesn’t cut it and maybe never will.
I agree, a must see.
Get the feeling that TXP are well placed for the bid round, and XM seemed impressed with quality of the data room. Get the feeling he saw what he wanted. Though we know that they have maybe 20+ targets already identified on the block.
Spoke to the CFO at the London event and he was more inclined to buy backs as he was quite clear in his mind that the shares/company was markedly under valued.
But with shares fairly tightly held and a limited free float with Canadian regulation, he didn’t see more than 10-12% buy backs/ year.
So still plenty for a dividend policy.
He was also saying they would have more cash to return when they sorted new banking arrangements. This has come to pass.
He was intimating a 10% buy back AND a 10% dividend on the then share price.
Considering the amount of cash they are throwing off, quite conservative.
At the London presentation the forward figures were conservative but Manolo seemed optimistic that he could move more oil by optimising the Amazon route.... The barges have to wait for an ocean going tanker to arrive and then off load. He has a plan for some storage tanks that will optimise the transport of oil.
There is another refinery he can ship some to that is closer in Peru, I can not remember the name, 2000bopd ish as I recall,
And a pipeline from the river to the ONP bypassing the bit that keeps getting cut.
So he is working on it.
Peru is still in a mess politically.
We know they are going back to cascadura but do we know how deep they are planning to go? The Cascadura Deep-1 had to stop at 8,133 feet because of the pressure but the original target was 10,600 feet.
With the new rig performing so well are they planning to go for the deeper target again or is this planned just to be a development well ?
I agree, with such a large discount there is clear upside especially with continued buy backs.
On the other hand it is clear that there will not be a wind up just yet.
I can easily see 20% returns over the next year or so, if not the pressure will be for bigger buy backs or wind up will be back on the agenda.
It’s good to see the new rig perform. Hopefully the testing will be as straight forwards.
We will have to see what the flow rates are like but I recall PB years ago suggesting that some of the targets on this block may need fracking.
Manolo was talking about this at the presentation in London. The plan is to bypass the section that often gets cut and put in a new pipeline from the river to a pumping station. Oil will need to be barged to this facility but the distance is much less than down the amazon, .
The hope then is that those who are cutting the pipeline will realise that oil is still getting out and the pipeline can be repaired. I think that is optimistic but it should mean PTAL gets more oil out.
Sorry, wrong forum, though it was TXP. But much the same story but there will be dividends from PTAL sooner.
But again they have other targets, and I think they may become preferred bidders for other fields in Peru.
Again this will absorb. Cash but if successful will be a bigger company with bigger divis.
Txp isn’t a dividend play anytime soon. They have too many targets to drill.. 18-20z
This is going to absorb a lot of the cash they will be churning out from the Cascadura wells.
But in 5 years the company is going to be a lot bigger with a lot more wells. How big? Nobody knows.
google investor chronicle pantheon for the past week if you can not follow the link
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/02/03/private-markets-are-more-transparent-than-public-ones/
The share price has gone nowhere even though the markets have bounced back. US markets are up 5-10% over past 2months, and even more since September when a lot of valuation date from. NAV should be over 500p and they will be taking every opportunity to pick up new investments at good prices. Buy and hold.
I think you could burn green hydrogen but it is rather wasteful. Better would be to use it in a fuel cell and produce electricity. It is only 60% efficient but if done in your house the other 40% is heat, great for your hot water etc.
But the problem with hydrogen is the round trip efficiency of making hydrogen from electricity to store and the back to electricity... for trucks or anything else... is never going to be better than 40%. Batteries or pump storage is 89%.
Hydrogen is so superficially sweet .. take water and make hydrogen , use the hydrogen and you have water again. But the physics and economics don't stack up.
This did not come out at the investor presentation in London, or discussed on the boards. This is a story posted on Reuters on the 2nd.
"Peru's state energy agency PeruPetro is offering areas for oil and gas exploration through direct negotiations with interested companies and up to 31 separate technical contracts, hoping to boost the nation's reserves, officials said on Thursday."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/peru-offers-oil-gas-exploration-blocks-technical-agreements-2023-02-02/
"U.S.-based Jaguar Exploration, Canada's PetroTal (TAL.V) and China's state oil company CNPC (CNPET.UL) have submitted requests to sign technical agreements, officials from the agency said."
The bids are for "technical evaluation agreements" that last for 2years; followed by opportunity to bid for exploration licences.
Manolo and Petrotal must be prime candidates for the best of these. He is a big fish in the country and his 2.5% social fund seems to have given him credibility that he can work with locals and get things done.
And he will have the cash...
Back buying back, got to help the discount and will help the NAV.
The new presentation on the the company site is a good.
I like that they are addressing the methane leak issues, ESG issues need to be taken seriously.
But also the way they are building a second business…the well decommissioning business. They are selling services to others inc states. But getting the price of decommissioning down, now down to $20k/well is important when you have 72,000 wells.
The certainty of future cash flow looks better but cash flows going out 50years??
I don’t recall if it was in the presentation or speaking to Manolo after. They are still working on optimising the Amazon route. At Manus the barges arrival has to match the arrival of the oil tanker and they are then transferred one at a time. Possibly storage tanks ? May increase export by the Amazon route by 20%.
Because these options are not sorted they are being conservative.