Member Info for Tobin

This did not come out at the investor presentation in London, or discussed on the boards. This is a story posted on Reuters on the 2nd.
"Peru's state energy agency PeruPetro is offering areas for oil and gas exploration through direct negotiations with interested companies and up to 31 separate technical contracts, hoping to boost the nation's reserves, officials said on Thursday."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/peru-offers-oil-gas-exploration-blocks-technical-agreements-2023-02-02/

"U.S.-based Jaguar Exploration, Canada's PetroTal (TAL.V) and China's state oil company CNPC (CNPET.UL) have submitted requests to sign technical agreements, officials from the agency said."

The bids are for "technical evaluation agreements" that last for 2years; followed by opportunity to bid for exploration licences.
Manolo and Petrotal must be prime candidates for the best of these. He is a big fish in the country and his 2.5% social fund seems to have given him credibility that he can work with locals and get things done.
And he will have the cash...

Back buying back, got to help the discount and will help the NAV.

The new presentation on the the company site is a good.
I like that they are addressing the methane leak issues, ESG issues need to be taken seriously.
But also the way they are building a second business…the well decommissioning business. They are selling services to others inc states. But getting the price of decommissioning down, now down to $20k/well is important when you have 72,000 wells.
The certainty of future cash flow looks better but cash flows going out 50years??

Sorry…The warrants will be exercised

I don’t recall if it was in the presentation or speaking to Manolo after. They are still working on optimising the Amazon route. At Manus the barges arrival has to match the arrival of the oil tanker and they are then transferred one at a time. Possibly storage tanks ? May increase export by the Amazon route by 20%.
Because these options are not sorted they are being conservative.

They are looking to barge some oil past the problematic section of the pipeline. A pipeline put from a pumping station down to the river. But only planning to move 3,000bopd even when and if sorted, but every little helps.

Spoke to the CFO after the event.
The TSX limits them to buy backs depended on the free float. As there are some big investors the free float according to TSX rules will be about 60% of total shares, so about 10% can be bought back from the market each year.
Which given the average daily trade size and they wouldn’t want to be buying back more than 20% of the daily trade size.
The expectation is that the shares will be exercised which will give them more cash.

1.30 still, 79.5p

Over 70p, and plenty of buying, Some FOMO? And why not a head of the start of the drilling campaign and the wall of cash from Cascadura that will inevitably drive this share higher.

PB obviously happy with the asset swap, not just land but access to infrastructure.
The Royston side track to be spud in a couple of weeks.
PIs obviously spooked when Royston seemed to deliver a low volume of oil with high water cut but it was an exploration well set up expecting gas.
Finding oil in 3 zones it actually delivered in spades.
Placing and perforating the new well optimally for oil production we could be pleasantly suprised.
From what PB has said before I think we could still see a water cut, but AICDs can make a big difference. He has also said in the past that he thinks that fracking may be needed in the Ortoir block. Lots to play for.
I am rather surprised there isn’t more interest on the board!

We don't have a current NAV, oil and gas prices are down from what they were.
Buy backs have got to help but they have not been particularly large. Having said that they have been somewhat bigger in the last couple of months that may suggest that they think the discount is still high or higher. It may mean there are more sellers and they can buy more. The stock is not heavily traded. This was given as an excuse by the CEO of another highly discounted stock that I own, Pantheon International. But then it should mean buy backs should have more impact??
If the buy backs do not reduce the discount .... great, the company should keep buying as it certainly increases the NAV that ultimately will drive the SP.

Ptal can put in horizontal wells with payback in 1-2months. Panr its not yet clear yet what the productivity of the horizontal wells will be.
Tax is lower for Ptal.
But Ptal is in Peru and Panr is in Alaska. And that is where the difference in risk lies.

Over $40million/mth. Or nearly 5p/share per month, mostly profit. Pay back on the H12 well will be a little longer. Spent $15 million will take 2months to pay back rather than the 1month we are used to. Oh dear.

“buy when there blood in the street”.
Fortunately there isn’t In Peru and hopefully won’t be but I the civil unrest is clearly holding down the SP.
But I suspect if Nathan Rothschild was around today he would have a few shares of PTAL.

So 40million warrants but exercised they bring in £.
At 4p less than market value that is a hit to existing shareholders of £1.6m or in other words b….r all.

Cobre mine in Panama shut down. Worth noting that the mine can produce 300,000 tons of copper/year but cost at least $10 BILLION to build.
The 15,000 tons that Jubilee will be producing would cost $500 million then ?
The value is in the profit margin but then again it looks like Jubilee is the place to be.
If it can produce copper commercially from Sulphide, and Cobalt as well....

Same issue as a year ago with locals blocking oil movements; hopefully they can get past this.
I hope they are the "bigger" partner in this.
Just make a payment in good will of say $1million to local partners, charities etc.
And maybe an offer of an extra 2.5% payment for volumes over 15,000 bopd.
Its business and you have to pay the ferryman; and its tax deductible.

But Serica is North Sea, TXP gas is stuck on T+T with a contract to sell at $2/mcf.
PB reckoned that TXP would make $500k/mth from coho, so $40million/year from Cascadura as is, increasing to $100million with more production wells.
Production from individual wells will fall off, but will be maintained by extra wells, but they will cost.

Jetti apparently have a process that MAY extract copper from sulphide ores by leaching but havent dont it at scale; and have no proven ability to commission plant and process tailings.
Jubilee have that ability in spades, and are apparently now able to leach copper from sulphide ores at an industrial scale; and cobalt as well.
Jetti have a valuation of $2.5 BILLION, go figure.
I know where my moneys staying...

October NAV down 2.7%. I say October but most, 72%, of valuation dated June when US markets generally lower.
£4 million in buy backs at discount of 48%. There also the argument that valuations are generally conservative as exit returns on investments continue to be markedly greater than booked value.
SP is up some 10% over the month.
Main issue is what will happen to the world markets and economies going forwards.
But at these discounts and PINs long term performance this company continues to look a sensible investment for any portfolio.