Member Info for Tobin

For what it is worth the markets do not seem to be pricing in the TRIN counter bid, it remains at approximately 1.5x txp

We will have to see how this pans out but the bottom line is that others in the know think that trin is under priced at what txp are offering and prepared to offer more in cash... and yet TXP may still "get" TRIN.. and that is a bad thing??

The hook up of gas will come, but yes it is slow... everything on Trinidad is slow but it is also the rainy season and that doesnt help when you are doing construction in a jungle.

The gas flow seems to fall off quicker than expected but the Cascadura C wells coming in less than $6million really shows that the company has got a much better grip on drilling these deep wells.

The early higher flow rate will help pay for the new wells within a matter of months and then the cash will just keep flowing in for years.

I am happy to wait a 6 mths and see how if pans out.

Hopefully decline rates will reduce as they drill further wells, place then better, perforate more etc. and for the cascadura wells they are perforating 2 zones. Also it is important to remember that the final volume of gas that wll be recovered will be the same; it will just take longer.

NAV up slightly to 490.5p, but the valuation gains was up 6.7p, 1.4% for the month. It was a loss on fex that resulted in an a much smaller gain but my experience is that fex goes up and down and what matters is the underlying.

Also I have plenty "invested" in the uk whose value overtime will be affected by the uk economy and value of the £; namely my house and pension. To have investments in other countries makes sense.

The discount to NAV remains ridiculously high for a company with its pedigree of picking long term winners, arguably it should be at a premium to nominal NAV.

Buy backs will continue.

Even odder is that the CEO bought 35million shares, OK only 50k... but that is a major increase in his holding.

That has to be a positive?? But the SP went down.

So others sold but the CEO bought... he maybe wrong but there's a reason that following directors dealing is usually a good idea

The gas price is fixed for another ?3years? $2.50 but 20% goes to Heritage I believe.

There maybe a chance of increasing this. The island is short of gas and the big user is methanex and they are happy to pay more.. $4/mcf is often referred to in their presentations. Only one of the two methanol plants are working, and these cost hundreds of millions to build…

The assessment seems a little weak. At the end he mentions hefty taxes but the taxes on the NG are low and trinity should come with a $200m in tax losses.

No mention of the exploration upside which presumably Cavendish are factoring in with their 345p target price?

I have said this before but TXP looks like a mining stock following the Lassonde curve. The big idea that this area of Trinidad had turbidites and some would be full of hydrocarbons has been confirmed. There are so many other targets and cash flow to explore them. A lot to like but we are at the bottom of the first curve?

Buy backs continue…

Eytan Uliel said in his interview it will be in the next couple of months, so hopefully by the beginning of September by the latest.

https://1lo.co/7c6K2

I have bought a few more at these levels as they will be a good long term investment but there is a good change that we will see further declines in the cascadura wells until the new wells come on stream. I suspect that as these lower lower flow rates get reported and the markets getting a little sleepy over the summer that we will see lower SP.

I don't think this is a buy, it looks from the rns 31/5 that this was a sale for exercised stock options ot am I reading this wrong?

Casc well was “under $6million” which was less than previous wells. The benefits of a new modern rig.

Hopefully as they are taking from 2 zones the decline will be less.

It’s important to know that though the decline rate has been faster than expected that this doesn’t affect the ultimate size of resource. Indeed the casc-2 well was important in that it helps confirm that what is seen on seismic is full of gas.

Valuation petrotal$520million, but what’s a zero between friends.

Hi Sturm, which is why I still hold Petrotal but its valuation is $52million and 10years is a long time.

If they can wash and repeat in other blocks then it looks much more attractive but they haven’t proved up their concept like TXP. Neither has CEG but the up side for CEG if they are right is much greater than Petrotal can ever see.

That said Petrotal have shown they can work successfully in Peru and they could be an even bigger player there than they already are.

The princess private equity trust is even more aggressive on buy backs.. greater percentage of free cash flow at lower levels of discount. I may raise it at the next agm if I get there!

At Cascadura there was a deeper target that has never been reached as drilling was stopped due to high pressure in the two higher zones.

Do we know if they are going to try to drill this again?

If there’s gas it would obviously likely add significantly to reserves but presumably they could drain all 3zones from the same well concurrently or sequential?

I too have shares in PTAL, and it is hosing out cash but it is having to spend a lot on major civils to stop the river washing a way the site! It also is coming to the end of what it can drill on the block. It will continue to hose out money for a number of years as it turns into a factory to process fluids as it copes with increasing water cuts.

The cash flow is compelling but there are clear political risks as well.

There is potential for further blocks to be explored but that will cost and there are no guarantees.

At this price TXP is looking more compelling and I have bought for the first time in several years.

CEG looks a much more interesting multibagger play than PTAL.

I would be interested in hearing someone like zavier moonan giving his take on trinitys assets and their potential.

Though I do seem to be using this platform as my own note pad..

The RNS a few days ago was very significant imo, and something I have been hoping to see for many years.

The RNS clear sets out that the company will buy back its own shares when sitting at a discount rather than investing its free cash in new opportunities.

>50% discount .. 51% to 75%

30% - 49% .....26% to 50%

20% - 29% ...Up to 25% of free cash flow.

I would have gone further and I would have liked them say that they would invest free cash even if it is only 10-20% discount, why not?

Buy backs have increased NAV by 4.5% last year.

Why a company that has out performed for 30years, with a remarkably low loss rate, continues to be at a discount beggars belief. The stock market has not been kind to any sort of risk, just look at the AIM market; but the future stock market will not be filled with the companies that fill it today.

A core holding that does not give me sleepless nights.