The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Thanks MJ, your referring to XMs twitter post.
I think its important to remember that the Royston well was drilled as an exploration well ultimately targeting and finding oil in 3 different reservoirs.
The next well will be a development well targeting just one of these zones. Optimally drilled, placed, perforated; AICDs if necessary etc.
From PB presentation it sounded as if they maybe producing upto 1000bopd from Royston.
A development well will likely produce significantly more.
I agree re sticking to TXP, but I try to inform my opinion with information.
I will try to stick to twitter.
Talking of twitter XM has been busy tweeting.
Some interesting maps, and he seems taken by CGX striking oil of Corentyne.
Seems positive.
It can take a long while to get over covid, though the same goes for influenza.
If there are any who havent had there vaccine or booster then the latest stats from the intensive care, you want the latest report, page 46
https://www.icnarc.org/our-audit/audits/cmp/reports
60% of covid patients coming from the 10% unvaccinated. The Stats don't tell the the whole story as those vaccinated and boosted are the highest risk and elderly. The unvaccinated are generally middle aged.
The unvaccinated will likely take up increasing percentage on ITU.
Hopefully TXP will be as successful as the vax!
Im not really into conspiracy theories; experience tells me that its less conspiracy than co..up,
There are risks around but I look to the US stock market that on many metrics look as over valued as it has ever been and chinas property market. Then we have putin and ukraine.
So where to but your money? Even cash is a poor place if we have high inflation.
Fortunately we still have TXP, and the world is going to need oil and gas for quite sometime.
JLP are not in the business of cleaning up dams unless there is resource in the tailings dams that make it worth their while. JLP are not a charity and Leon made this quite clear in the last presentation he made. Obviously if there is remedial work that needs to be done, and there is a lot of dams that do need need remedial work then there may be opportunities....
PB said in one of his earlier presentations ( pre any drilling) that he thought that some of the targets in the Ortoire may need fracking; I wonder if that will be the case for the lower Royston zone. There's oil but it didn't sound like the flow rate was particularly high because of the relatively low permeability?
Vallance said early on the real covid deaths are not the real number of deaths, what matters is the total excess deaths and its one of the few things that he said that I agree with. Certainly many who die within 30 days of covid may have died of something else anyway, and most deaths are in older people but the calculated loss of years of live from each death is still about 10years each for the UK. But there were many deaths in the community in the first wave that probably died from covid, especially among the elderly, who where not diagnosed as having covid because there was no community testing.
And many deaths have occurred because the health system has been at times overwhelmed with covid.
On the other hand probably as many have died in the uk in the past 2years from smoking, and average loss of live there is about 10years each.
But you need to look at the excess deaths and also appreciate how many deaths would have occurred if we hadn't had the lockdowns and had massive community spread before vaccines. Total deaths in the first year of covid from the herd immunity approach would have been north of 500k, maybe closer to 1million.
Fortunately we have the vaccine and its stopping deaths. If your not vaccinated stop reading twitter, and talk to your GP.
PB has it seems got over Covid, I am sure he will have been vaccinated; he has his head screwed on.
What I was really meaning to post on, having listened to PB presentation again is that PB said ( 32.30) that after they drill the 2 wells at Coora they are going to move the new rig to Royston and drill 2 wells there.
with Cascadura ready to come on in July they are still intending to drill more wells at Royston first rather than more wells at Cascadura.
One can only conclude that they see more money coming out of the ground at Royston than at Cascadura, or certainly more quickly.
Obviously it is likely that the initial flow rate at Cascadura is likely to be quite high and will fall, but maybe 90mcf/day. That is probably $5million/month. But PB is clearly thinking Royston wells will bring in more, or they sure would drill more at Cascadura first. If this is the case and maybe they get $50/barrel net back at current prices each Royston well would have to deliver more than $2.5million/month or 50,000 barrels/month, or 2,000bopd.
It also sounds like they maybe moving up to 1,000bopd from Royston at least some days during testing from an exploration well, so optimised development wells producing 2,000bopd doesn't sound unrealistic; and it could be significantly more.
Time will tell.
Hopefully your assessment of share data is better than your assessment of covid data! As your on TXP forum this may be the case.
Covid deaths are very heavily driven by age, and most older people are vaccinated, but when they end up in hospital and die significant numbers will have had covid in the month before they have died. It doesn't mean that covid killed them, though it may have contributed. We see the same every winter with influenza or with norovirus but the statistics are not gathered.
The reason there are not huge numbers dying like last year, or even more, is because of the vaccine.
Probably about half of those ending up on ITU are unvaccinated, but they are coming from the may be 4-8million unvaccinated, and primarily from the probably 1million unvaccinated over the age of 50.
Interestingly it is hard to be more precise because we don't actually know how many are unvaccinated because we do not know how many are people are in the country, The ONS statistics of population is about 56million, but the GP registration statistics are about 6.5million. And even though the ONS data is based on a census done just last year most people believe the GP registration data is probably more accurate, certainly the NHS monies are distributed on GP data.
When you start to understand this then you start to understand why you really want to get vaccinated.
And when you start to understand risk/reward is why you should keep buying TXP.
Malcy has ADV in his bucket list but seems even more positive since his interview with the CEO yesterday.
"I have commented a number of times that this well offers significant potential upside with pretty low risk exposure for investors and that the company is providing plenty of updates as drilling continues. The management and indeed the board in total have impressed me with their strategy and I look forward to seeing the results of this well. "
https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/01/oil-price-advance-energy-and-finally/
Sturm, I too am invested in TXP; and when you look at the 90% plus water cut at PTAL you would wonder what the issue is. PTAL are managing to drill horizontal wells and AICDs to limit water to maybe 20% initially so they are getting pay back on their wells within a couple of months. The water cut increases but its all profit. It will be interesting if TXP can do the same but PTAL has the advantage of good aquifer pressure and flow rates. I remain invested in both.
Also Advance energy looks interesting, Malcy put it in his bucket list and today sound even more positive after interviewing the CEO, DYOR.
Those who short ( or sell) lower the price for those who want to buy more. I may want to buy more, a lower price is fine by me. Maybe there will become a time I want to sell but not yet and hopefully not for many years.
The markets as always are an efficient way of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.
And technology has improved in the last few years. I have posted before about AICDs but I think worth posting again. AICDs, Advanced inflow control devices have it appears become much more popular over the past 5years, increasing oil, reducing water and maintaining pressure, increasing total recovered oil. This company had fitted 35,000 AICDs in 210 wells of 2019. There are others by other companies.
HTTPS://www.tendeka.com/wp-content/uploads/Improving-efficiency-and-increasing-oil-productivity-with-AICD.pdf
TXP has oil in 3 zones, each with different characteristics, each will likely require different solution to optimise returns.
These may need different wells, or maybe the lowest zone will require fracking, and then later in life the same well can be used for middle or upper zones. AICDs look attractive for the middle zone, maybe for the upper zone.
Pumps will probably be needed as there doesn't seem to be that much gas, or water reinjection or flooding later in field life.
Obviously this is going to take time to show its full potential
But with 3 zones with oil, many potential solutions to optimise oil production no wonder the company wants to drill a new well in January.