Member Info for Tobin

Actually I asked the question. It was a video presentation of results and Manolo answered pre submitted questions. Manolo seemed very sure, almost dismissive of the risk. Laws can be changed. The UK have done it; but the legal frame work of the contracts re tax sounds secure. If there’s an expert out there on Peruvian contract and constitutional law?
Otherwise his response was reassuring enough for me to increase my holding.

Copper isn’t going away but aluminium is an alternative for some applications if the price goes higher.
The cobalt story is interesting but we need to have a better sight of the costs.
You can extract gold from sea water.. doesn’t mean it’s a cost effective thing to do.

Investment trusts seem to be out of favour, and investors seem to want ESG, no risk and the world to be different than it actually is. Fortunately this leads to opportunities…

Market cap is £159m so £10million for divs would be a 6% yield.
But Cascadura pipelines and plant are rated for 200mcf. We are looking at future income stream of $100m/annum.
Petrotal is even better and hosing $$$ now, but it’s in Peru… let’s just say there are risks…

Oil prices took a hit today on concerns of China demand. The MM writing down oil stocks but Petrotal is so undervalued, with such a low cost base it’s just more of a bargain imo

Just reading on Malcy, Challengers CEOs comments about the rainy season on T+T...
“We plan for a certain level of disruption each year during the rainy season, but during the third quarter we experienced considerably more than expected, resulting in production downtime, and it also became necessary to delay much of the routine maintenance and production enhancement activities we had hoped to undertake."
I guess it didn't help TXP either but hopefully the weathers better and the are motoring...

Seems some negative comments in Peru media last few days …thoughts?
https://diariolaregion.com/web/hay-empresas-que-quieren-seguir-explotando-y-saqueando-los-recursos-naturales-sin-que-desarrollen-su-entorno/?amp=1

NAV to a new high this week, 492.5p, so probably over 50% discount.
I say probably because only 14% of valuations are dated as September 30th, 78% are June 30th. Markets, including US markets are broadly similar though.
Managers have also tended to understate in their valuations so there has been typically an uplift on existing of between 20-30%. So overall discount maybe significantly higher.
Much of this months valuation is FX, but I see that as a plus.
I have been selling down PIN in the past few years (it had become too PIN heavy) but recently I have started to increase my holding PIN. I started investing heavily in PIN in 2009. Looking back I timed it well, though I should have invested more heavily. I maybe investing a little too soon. The SP may fall more if the NAV falls, and the discount widens. Perfect timing is not possible.

Its possible if Kraken is a hit, otherwise I think it is 2-3years off.

directors talk

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One thing PB mentioned was the onshore bid round that is due to take place in January. You have to feel that TXP should be well placed to pick up more blocks to explore and develop.
Https://www.***************************/touchstone-exploration-first-gas-in-trinidad-highlighting-opportunity-there-video/4121086561

Malcy still has a target of 150p
"PTAL shares are undoubtedly significantly undervalued, they doubled earlier in the year but have recently fallen back to the 40p level, a significant discount to my target price of 150p and therefore with so much operational upside the shares represent excellent value."
https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/10/oil-price-petrotal-arrow-scirocco-block-angus-and-finally/

The market cap is only £150million. Cascadura is eventually going to be producing maybe 200mcf /d for years, or at a lowe rate for decades which with a fixed government contract is going to pay a measly cf $10million/mth potentially?, with liquids.
Its still the wet/hurricane season but PB has said Royston side track, they have paid for the rig.. probably in the last quarter.
I think investors have not properly understood the Royston well... it was a exploration well. It had problems but it delivered what the company needed to know ... oil in 3 zones. The side track well and other development wells will be optimised for one, two and maybe all three zones. The flow rates are likely to be significantly better than what we have seen so far.
So a rare opportunity near guaranteed wall of cash, and upside surprises at Royston and then many other targets.
The risk profile at these prices remains very good imo. DYOR.

Didn't give an idea on the time until Cascadura but it sounds like much of the kit is built or being built and as soon as the "civils" i finished, concrete poured etc that the kit will be brought together hopefully in double quick time.

The EU and UK have been weak on this; winter is coming and they have not sorted the Russian gas issue.
Gas fired plants can be converted to dual fuel and run on fuel oil that is easier to import.
We could have done far more on insulation, and pressing citizens and companies to look at reducing energy.
But to TXP the EU and especially UK could have been pressing T+T to get on an let TXP put in pipe to Cascadura and drill new wells.
T+T have LNG plant sitting idle. Talking about fiddling while Russia burns its gas...

Another nice presentation by Helen Steers. Question raised about buy backs. She didn’t really answer why they are not buying more at this level of discount. She did say that research they had done indicated that buybacks wouldn’t have much impact on shares and also that paying a dividend would be artificial and research indicated would have minimal effect on discount. https://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/investor-meet-company/PANTHEON-INTERNATIONAL-PLC-Investor-Presentation?bmid=f5b84b0a22dd
Greater buy backs may not significantly reduce discount but at this levels of discount would improve the NAV.

I to am not concerned re the discount, its an opportunity for the PI to buy shares in a great company at a huge discount. Its also an opportunity for PIN to buy shares in a great company at a huge discount.
re the FX I always felt there was more of a risk of the £ sliding than to see it strengthening; it is a small part of my reasoning to invest companies like PIN that invest in other countries.

Market cap is £1.378billion so they could buy back 15% of shares under current approval, or £200million, or around £16million/month; twice their current rate.
That would be about 8% of their NAV over a year, it would hopefully narrow discount, raise SP and NAV.

The discount is probably still in the 40%+ range even though US market is down. Share buybacks at 41.9% discount.
At this level I would prefer to see more buy back and less new investments.
£8million on buy backs; £52million on new investments. But that’s just my opinion!